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Moore Financial Solutions 1st Quarter 2026

Thu, 09 Apr 2026 17:37:36 GMT

The past 35 days have humbled investors as we witnessed the S&P 500 lose approximately 6% from February 25th into the quarter's close. The S&P 500 finished the entire quarter 4.6% lower, which represents the first losing quarter since Q1 of last year, in which the S&P 500 lost about 4.59%. Much like an emotional play or movie, the market offered three scenes of varying benefit to investor portfolios. Scene one was brief but fruitful. In these first 12 days of the year the S&P 500 rose about 1.92%. Scene two left investors leaning on the emotional lessons learned from 2025's market downturn, with the S&P 500 moving about 9% lower from day 13 of the year until March 30th. Scene three flashed quickly and only represented one day. On this last day of the quarter, the S&P 500 meaningfully rose about 2.9% in an effort to heal a portion of the quarter's losses. I believe, based upon my nearly 14 years of money management, that stock market history doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme. Though I'm not predicting a positive year for the S&P 500 (and admittedly not in the business of making such predictions) this year's chart for the broad stock market looks somewhat like last year's. Those first quarter '25 stumbles were later looked at as a massive buying opportunity, symbolizing the power of "buy and hold" as it relates to stocks. Only time will tell if these stock market worries are warranted and if there will be continued damage to stock portfolios because of the conflict in Iran. Additionally, the market is eyeing oil price increases, interest rate increases, various geopolitical risks, and the additional unforeseen risks on the horizon. Or are stock market investors currently pricing in many areas of worry, all of which will subside in the coming weeks? Dive into the quarter's review in which I attempt to illustrate investing through my eyes, discuss quarterly geopolitical events, and speak to market moving factors of Q1 and investor emotions as a result. Use this tool to educate yourself and reduce worry or fear as it relates to investing.

The amazing thing about fiduciary* management is that as portfolio managers we can live vicariously and benefit from lessons learned generations ago. Though stock market investing has changed a lot technologically from generation to generation, and will continue to evolve, the emotional relationship with investing remains reasonably unchanged. About 400 years ago Holland experienced what is likely the first recorded financial bubble when speculation drove tulip values to as much as six times the average person's annual salary at the market's peak, prior to a crash. This feeling of greed (a 1630's Holland tulip purchaser hoping to be a tulip owner lucky enough to later sell at a higher price) coincides with "fear" to drive market pricing day to day. In the late 1990's we witnessed investors in a similar fashion illustrate greed as they feverishly bought up ".com" companies regardless of actual earnings and financial reporting data. In 2008 during the Great Financial Crisis, we saw investors become very fearful and sell equities in a panic. These emotions of fear and greed drive the markets day to day and week to week. We believe investors have never been more willing to "gamble" or exercise "greed" as witnessed in the rise of popularity of leveraged exchange traded notes, near expiration options, etc. In our present day, this appetite for speculation/risk could be driving the price of oil higher or pushing shorts on equities harder during war times. In other words, investors' greed and desire to make money can quickly swing markets as the ultra-speculative may actually bet against the market in an attempt to benefit from market decreases.

But we must overcome this temptation to let short-term movements in the valuation of stocks rattle us and instead stay focused on longer term outlooks such as 1, 5, or even 10 years.

Over the last several generations the world economy has become increasingly interwoven. Trade routes and relationships have generally strengthened, and this has allowed goods to flow all over the world as needed. Unlike 50 or 75 years ago when economic health may have been driven more locally, we now live in a world that trades freely, and we can get the goods we desire shipped right to our door or sell our goods all throughout the world. As a side effect of this chain of global trade, we have become more dependent on the other links in the chain, in this case our trading allies. In other words, the health of one nation's economy may rely significantly on the health of another nation's economy. As we manage portfolios we often aim to be invested meaningfully in stocks to best impact our clients' lives by hopefully providing meaningful growth. However, we move cautiously knowing the next big risk is out there. For years MFS has viewed risks as most commonly geopolitical with a recent example being the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This impact to the world economy was a result of the action by Russia, a 6.3 million square mile country that represents 11% of the world's landmass. While it may seem somewhat natural that extreme actions by a world power could throw the global economy into a recession, what are the chances that a 21-mile-wide body of water could spur a global recession?

That roughly 21-mile-wide body of water, the Strait of Hormuz, realistically can create a recession. These 21 miles provide a shipping route for most oil produced in the Persian Gulf, about 80% of which then flows to Asia. But with the potential for a $500 Iranian drone to sink passing vessels the ultimate concern has become attacks on oil shipping in the Strait, causing unsustainable losses or shipwrecks closing the shipping lanes. Suddenly, the waterway supplying roughly 20% of the world's oil is closed due to Iranian threats. Basics of supply and demand theory suggest a higher price of oil when a 20% decrease in supply occurs, not to mention an estimated 18%-20% the fertilizer used on United States farms is shipped on that same strait. Assuming you've been following along with past Moore Financial Solutions quarterly reviews, you're astute to the stock market's fear of inflation. Rightfully, inflation remains a foremost worry of stock market investors and with WTI Crude moving from roughly $57.32/barrel to begin the year to over $99/barrel to end Q1. It seems clear that inflation now will not decrease at the assumed rate, with interest rate cut projections following in line. With many anticipating (prior to the conflict in Iran) continued disinflation and further interest rate easing, and some of our strategy in line with these progressions, we find it troubling that though inflation/interest rates were headed in a favorable direction, that trend will likely now end. We're in our sixth year of managing money for our cherished clients while President Trump is in office. During that time the broad take away is a fear to become conservative or make changes when stocks dip (which would be rare as we generally attempt to buy stocks during fearful downturns) because at any moment a Truth Social post from the president could occur stating a ceasefire, agreement, strait opening, etc. In the previous Trump administration, we sought confirmation of a U.S./China trade deal capable of moving markets meaningfully higher in seconds. Research by the Dallas Federal Reserve suggests hypothetical oil prices based upon the duration of closure within the Strait of Hormuz. These projections cite oil at $115/barrel if closed two quarters, and a projected $132/barrel if a three-quarter closure is to happen.

Some relief may be in sight if the strait reopens soon, with the next question being how much damage was done to the economy with the price shock. Fortunately, since the shale oil boom the U.S. petroleum trade balance has been close to balanced. One way the oil supply shortfall could potentially be reduced is by Saudi Arabia increasing the flow of oil on the East-West pipeline from the Persian Gulf to the Red Sea. Or maybe Iran will strike a deal with China to let Chinese ships move oil through the strait. As a result, we feel comfortable generally with our positioning and await further news.

Within our quarterly commentary we aim to discuss trends happening within the broad stock market, and if possible, allow our readers to freely enact similar trades. As you remember, we've been focused on the Mag 7, and you can catch up on the details on what that is, and what risks pertain to the Mag 7 by reading our previous quarterly review. We focused particularly on how highly concentrated major indexes such as the S&P 500 have become as it relates to these seven huge companies. At that time, those seven companies made up over 35% of the S&P 500. For the first time since the Artificial Intelligence boom began in January 2023, every Mag 7 stock is down for the year. The Mag 7 companies in total have shed over $2 Trillion in value as of late March. As you may remember in Q4 of last year we moved about 10% of our holdings in the iShares Core S&P 500 Fund ETF (ticker IVV) to Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (ticker RSP) and predicted the Mag 7 stocks, which offered a P/E ratio of about 29 compared to the broad index P/E ratio of about 20, would experience selling from investors who had gains and were waiting for the new year to book the sell orders in 2026. As predicted Q1 '26 was hard on the Mag 7 pushing those companies about 12.16% lower (ticker symbol "MAGS").

Whether you're new with me or an original client from nearly 14 years ago, whether your investment account is $1,000 or $10,000,000, it means a lot to me and it is an honor to work with you on your goals. As you've noticed, I try not to let the highs get too high, or the lows too low. Thus, I do get cautious when everything seems euphoric, for example in times recently of the Dow Jones hitting 50,000 and the S&P 500 hitting 7,000. It is not that I think the market will fall, it's just I have come to accept how things function. The market has historically tended to take the escalator up and grind higher over time, then suddenly take the elevator down in a harsh brief fall. I've come to accept that a 21-mile body of water can disrupt the stock market 5%, 10%, perhaps more. From there my duty is to educate you and warn you about these periods and be your steady hand through them. Generally speaking, there are a few things you may want to consider this quarter more than last quarter. Contributing to the down market, converting from a traditional IRA to a Roth IRA, using Moore F.S. to invest your short-term savings into treasury bonds for greater yields compared to banks as applicable to your unique circumstances. These could all potentially help strengthen your financial efficiency. Please reach out to me if you'd like to discuss these or any other items in greater detail, I love to hear your ideas! Thank you for the opportunity to work with your account and please don't hesitate to tell a friend about Moore F.S.

Did you know? Moore Financial Solutions offers unique/custom-built insurance solutions. Does anything keep you up at night that we could help fix? If so give us a call and we’ll help find you the best policy rates and options as we shop the open market of providers, all while offering our zero-pressure sales process. This includes Life Insurance, Disability Income Insurance, and Long-Term Care Insurance. Let’s review your policy and search for Moore Solutions today!

1. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history/

2. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history/

3. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history/

4. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history/

5. https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/dutch_tulip_bulb_market_bubble.asp

6. https://www.worldometers.info/geography/largest-countries-in-the-world/

7. https://www.dallasfed.org/research/economics/2026/0320

8. https://www.dallasfed.org/research/economics/2026/0320

9. https://www.techi.com/magnificent-seven-stocks/

10. https://www.techi.com/magnificent-seven-stocks/

11. https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/mags/charts?mod=mw_quote_advanced

12. https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/spx/charts?mod=mw_quote_advanced

This material has been prepared for information and educational purposes and should not be construed as a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any investment. The content is developed from sources believed to be reliable. This information is not intended to be investment, legal or tax advice. Investing involves risk, including the loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in a

period of declining values. Past performance may not be used to predict future results. Investment advisory services offered by duly registered

individuals on behalf of CreativeOne Wealth, LLC a Registered Investment Adviser. CreativeOne Wealth, LLC and Moore Financial Solutions

are unaffiliated entities. Licensed Insurance Professional. Insurance product guarantees are backed by the financial strength and claims-paying

ability of the issuing company.

Moore Financial Solutions 4th Quarter 2025

Wed, 21 Jan 2026 15:31:59 GMT

As 2025 ends, we joyfully review another positive quarter for the S&P 500, with it logging about a 2.3% gain, plus dividends (1). Much like a banked 3-pointer in a game of basketball, we won’t complain about scoring points, even though it may not have looked pretty, with extreme volatility near April (and again seven companies creating a large portion of gains.) Realistically, the annual return of 16.39% on the S&P 500 for the year is great, especially when it follows 24% and 23% returns the prior two years (2).However, we take exception to the continual heavy lifting done by the “Mag 7” (Google/Alphabet, Nvidia, Microsoft, Tesla, Meta/Facebook, Apple, and Amazon) as they now make up nearly 35% of the S&P 500. The other 493 stocks making up the S&P 500 represent the other approximately 65% of the index and only returned approximately 10% for the year. I will discuss much more on this and how Moore F.S. has attempted to mitigate some of this Mag 7 risk. Additionally, we’ll discuss interest rate movements along the yield curve, the Federal Reserve, and share our most recent trade and strategy for 2026.

More than likely “Mag 7” is a phrase you’ve heard of. Naturally, some of you have not heard of the financial term Mag 7, so perhaps the only thing coming to mind is the 1960 movie The Magnificent Seven. In today’s world Mag 7, as mentioned above, refers to some of our largest publicly traded companies in the United States. Not by coincidence, each of these companies are all using Artificial Intelligence (A.I.) in some way. This ranges from Microsoft being extremely involved, Nvidia the A.I. hardware backbone, to Tesla using moderate adoption for self-driving. Our view is that the recent run up in big tech likely is merited, with J.P. Morgan recently offering, “the advent of generative AI is a seminal moment in tech, more so than the Internet or the iPhone (3).” With some offering such a bullish viewpoint on the Mag 7 we do not fear investing in it for the appropriate client. But, with the Mag 7 having about a 29 price to earnings ratio (read MFS Q1 ’24 review to learn more about how we use P/E ratios) and the other 493 stocks that make up the index having a P/E ratio of only about 20, we believe the time has come to reduce our exposure to Mag 7 holdings. We consider it our foremost goal to balance risk. By taking a risk/reward analysis approach, we believe the value is in the 493, but we are not abandoning the Mag 7 holdings.

In the last couple of weeks of 2025, we moved approximately 10% of all IVV holdings to RSP. We believe this trim of the iShares Core S&P 500 ETF and move to the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF is a march towards better valuations. Additionally, many of Wall Street’s brightest are questioning Mag 7 valuations. Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research is now shifting his stance on the group, which includes the "Magnificent Seven" stocks, to a more neutral position. Instead, Yardeni is more bullish on the rest of the S&P 500, which he has labeled the "Impressive 493." He continues, "I'm kind of betting ... that all companies are becoming technology companies," Yardeni told CNBC in December. "You either make it, or you use it, and I think more and more companies are using technology to increase productivity (7)"

In the Moore F.S. Q3 2024 review we offered actionable advice to all readers to purchase (if appropriate) Goldman Sachs (ticker symbol GS) shortly after we added it to nearly every portfolio at about $487/share. To close the year, the 10 Year U.S. Treasury offered about .681% higher yield than the 2 Year U.S. Treasury yield (8). Following closely as predicted, Goldman Sachs closed the year at $878.77/share, likely with room to run higher this year, in the opinion of Moore F.S. (9). As discussed in that previous quarterly review, we anticipate interest rates will continue to fall in 2026, as President Trump has publicly disagreed with current Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s pace of interest rate decreases, citing a weakening labor market. However, with A.I. implementation on the rise we anticipate a further continuing of weakening in the labor market. With Jerome Powell’s term scheduled to end in May 2026, Wall Street tries to predict the next Fed Chair as most offer Kevin Hasset as the frontrunner. Currently, Mr. Hassett is the director of the National Economic Council and in the first Trump administration he was a senior advisor and chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors (11). With predictions markets stating a 70% chance for Mr. Hasset to be the next Fed Chair, there seems to be no confusion on the direction he would move rates as he recently offered, “if you look at central banks around the world, the U.S. is way behind the curve in terms of lowering rates.” As a result, we believe small Cap stock indexes have a strong opportunity to outperform large Cap indexes such as the S&P 500.

I approach 2026 with caution after the last three years in the S&P 500 returned approximately 24%, 23%, and 17% (12). Though it would be hard to forecast a fourth straight double-digit year, it is possible as investors look to A.I. to drive companies’ earnings higher. Be prepared that a fourth straight double-digit year historically would be challenging, but historically, A.I. was not a driving force to stocks moving higher, like it is today. It is a tough balance to ensure clients have a good risk/reward ratio and are receiving the rate of return they deserve. Many clients cannot afford to be overly conservative in only bonds or use an annuity for “protection” so we must be willing to be allocated to stocks as appropriate for each client and trust the process. With recent action to move away slightly from the Mag 7 holdings, it does feel strange to move away from what has worked so well. However, it seems undebatable that Mag 7 expectations are sky high. As always, I manage each account individually to your situation and rely on you to trust the process. I want to wish you and your family a happy new year and remind you that I’m only a phone call away if you have any questions. It is with great pride to act as your trusted advisor.

1. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history/

2. https://www.macrotrends.net/2526/sp-500-historical-annual-returns

3. https://www.northernlight.com/blog/will-generative-ai-be-bigger-than-the-internet#

4. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ed-yardeni-steps-back-magnificent-175700637.html

5. https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/mags

6. https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/spx/charts?mod=mw_quote_advanced

7. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ed-yardeni-steps-back-magnificent-175700637.html

8. https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/10Y2YS

9. https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/gs

10. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y

11. https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/trump-narrows-fed-chair-picks-january-decision-expected

12. https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/spx?mod=home_markets

period of declining values. Past performance may not be used to predict future results. Investment advisory services offered by duly registered

individuals on behalf of CreativeOne Wealth, LLC a Registered Investment Adviser. CreativeOne Wealth, LLC and Moore Financial Solutions

are unaffiliated entities. Licensed Insurance Professional. Insurance product guarantees are backed by the financial strength and claims-paying

ability of the issuing company.

Moore Financial Solutions 3rd Quarter 2025

Tue, 14 Oct 2025 16:42:45 GMT

With many asset classes moving higher in Q3 we hope you were able to take advantage within your account! I’m pleased to be able to review an S&P 500 that was able to maintain a generally upward trend since April 8th, 2025, a day that would not so ironically be the only closing price below 5,000 so far this year, an important statistic we will discuss in greater detail later. As investors weighed a decreasing rate environment in which the Federal Reserve reduced rates, and a weakening labor market, the S&P 500 logged a 7.79% increase (1). Fixed Income rallied with the Moore F.S. largest bond holding (iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF) increasing about 1.27% within Q3 (as of 09/30/25) and paying another nearly 1% dividend for the quarter (2). With stocks and bonds rallying together over the last quarter, I’ll discuss market moving events within the quarter, lay out my opinion of how investors can consider deploying capital in a highly valued market, provide trading ideas, and discuss our thoughts on why U.S. markets are priced at a premium globally.

Tasked with fiduciary* management of hundreds of accounts, Moore F.S. is always strategic about your investment holdings, and attempts to strike a solid balance of risk and reward within each account. The gray-haired veteran’s account looks far different from the client born this side of the new millennium. To support this strategy, we believe that interest rate policy and trajectory can be the easiest variable to monitor regarding the decision making of portfolio construction, which Moore F.S. is proud to do “in house”, instead of using high-cost mutual funds for example. This Exchange Traded Fund oriented strategy typically results in the older client’s asset allocation being constructed of stocks and bonds strategically, and the client of the “new millennium” hosting strategy that is more related to the capitalization of stocks. In other words, in the average environment, Moore F.S. tilts younger portfolios more to small caps (using smaller companies instead of the large ones like you’ll find in the S&P 500). To oversimplify, Moore F.S. set portfolios up to help them better perform when rates fall. We feel strongly that the active management of passive ETF’s can help ensure you’ll have solid asset allocation without using actively managed mutual funds which typically lag.

Interest rate predictions remain difficult. If the consensus is that interest rates will decrease, then generally there isn’t a lot of room in this crowded trade (going with the crowd may not have nearly the same potential profit as a contrarian trade would but may be a better percent chance of being correct). However, we felt confident that the next move for rates would be lower and the inverted yield curve would normalize. One year ago, in our Q3 2024 review we stated, “We feel this temporary inversion is holding banks like Goldman Sachs back from their full potential” and added holdings of Goldman Sachs to nearly all portfolios. Moore F.S. currently holds 404 shares of Goldman Sachs, a stock that climbed from below $500/share (when we made the prediction on 10/01/2024) to $796.35/share to close this quarter (3). We feel strongly that additional Trump mandated deregulation of the banking sector leads to room to run for Goldman Sachs. We believe if you have the correct risk tolerance and time frame, you may potentially benefit from owning Goldman Sachs, developed banks with solid earnings, and the Blackrock iShares U.S. Financials ETF, if they are appropriate for your unique circumstances. We believe this actionable thought could be advantageous as a diversification away from a MAG 7 heavy index such as the S&P 500 where over 38% of the index is comprised of only 10 companies (4). Even with that in mind, we feel that the “trend is your friend” and large cap tech does still have legs to run higher, although of course we can offer no guarantees.

At Moore F.S. we have always taken a unique dual approach. Educate and Empower a client, as opposed to a “tough sell”. We want to always educate you on what we’re seeing, at least in our opinion. Take a moment and educate yourself on a basic function of U.S. free markets and marvel in their function and somewhat extrapolative nature. For starters, please know that “U.S. Treasuries” is a term to describe debt issued by The U.S. Department of the Treasury and allows an investor to loan the government money by purchasing treasury notes, and receive a greater sum at maturity and/or interest payments along the way. As the duration of the note increases (10-year note vs. 2-year note for example), one would assume they would receive a greater yield for waiting longer (and experiencing more inflationary erosion of their dollar). However, due to supply and demand, investors determine all these rates almost as a “vote” of the direction of the economy and in turn interest rates. As a result of these differing opinions, rates will fluctuate minute to minute. This latest quarter gave host to a further steepening yield curve between 2-year U.S. Treasuries and 10-year U.S. Treasuries. But why does Moore F.S. focus on this detail, and can it be trusted? Historically, an inverted yield curve has been viewed as an indicator of a pending economic recession. When short-term interest rates exceed long-term rates it might suggest that the long-term outlook is poor and that the yields offered by long-term fixed income will fall. Since the 1970s, a yield curve inversion has occurred before every recession. The only two inaccuracies were the 1998 and mid-2022 inversions, which produced no subsequent economic recessions. The U.S. economy did see a significant slowdown in the first half of ‘22 but rebounded in the second half (6). Moore F.S. did not employ covered call selling, cash position increases, etc. that could reduce a client’s rate of return when a recession does not occur. We felt this inversion was driven by the inflation spike that resulted from Covid-19 and rate increases mandated by the Federal Reserve to combat inflation. Alternatively, we coached clients’ emotional resilience.

For perspective, the S&P 500 has climbed over 86% since the 3,585.62 closing price 3 years ago on September 30th, 2022 (8). This steep incline has been welcomed by Moore F.S. clients and generally boosted by Covid-19 worries subsiding while Artificial Intelligence (A.I.) optimism increases. But markets do not climb at that pace forever, and we believe there will be another hard hitting down year in stocks at some point. So how can we feel good about adding new money into the stock market at these record levels? We believe it is all about time horizon and proper expectations. If you’re aiming to grow your money in a six-month period, there isn’t a stock out there we’ll recommend, rather we’d likely recommend bonds. But if you have a decade or longer, these entry points in the stock market do not create the same concern for us. Moreover, you as an investor can potentially benefit from a long time horizon and the ability to ride the next wave and let us make the necessary changes when a downturn occurs. We view this as a better strategy than doing the impossible and attempting to correctly time the market. We believe there are two broad strategies you can use for adding new money into the stock market, if that is your goal. Dollar cost averaging(1) money into various funds or stocks over a defined time can help decrease the timing risk of new money going into the market. Secondly, using exchange-traded funds that offer a value (instead of a growth) strategy might ease the timing risk of these purchases. Ultimately, we believe with greater emotional resilience investors will need to rely less on these strategies and focus more on a buy and hold strategy.

With a metaphorical mountain climb over the last three years, we can feel proud. Proud that you were not emotionally rattled during the challenging and uncertain times. Proud to feel confident you’ve hired the right fiduciary. But with this climb comes great responsibility. Contrary to situations in which markets are low and we can just buy everything; we’ve become increasingly pickier with where assets are allocated. In paragraph two of our Q1 ’24 review we educated our readers about Price/Earnings ratios (P/E ratios). This measure of what investors are willing to pay today to receive future earnings speaks to perceived value and, to some degree, risk of that asset. In this previous quarterly review, we highlighted an S&P 500 that had a P/E ratio of 27.19, compared to today’s approximate P/E ratio of 30.97 (10). But are markets overvalued at 30.97 times earnings? We said in that previous quarterly review that we might not feel as comfortable if the ratio goes above 30. However, over the last year and a half, the adoption efficiencies and timeline for A.I. implementation have increased. Fully adopting artificial intelligence could save corporate America $920 billion annually net of implementation costs, according to data from Morgan Stanley (11). Suddenly a willingness to pay more today for future earnings is justified in our view and likely the result of the approximate 3-point increase in the P/E ratio of the S&P 500. By contrast, the European markets are running a 17 P/E ratio approximately (12). Thus, we believe the time will come to diversify back into the European markets, which have lagged the U.S. markets. However, the United States remains the financial epicenter of the world and the envy of the entire globe. Coupled with its robust technology footprint, we still feel that as of this quarter the premium associated with U.S. stocks is justified even if the P/E ratio is above its average levels. Moreover, in a year like 2025 when the market only closes below 5,000 for one day, it would seem that algorithmic trading may offer a level of stability and a floor to broad markets. We believe investors have better trained themselves to have proper expectations of the market’s fluctuations, especially Moore F.S. clients. Additionally, confidence has strengthened that beating the market consistently is nearly impossible, with nearly 90% of money managers failing to beat the market, we believe clients will continue to become more oriented to buy and hold and/or index their portfolio (12).

As mentioned, you should be proud of any growth you’ve seen. And I’m proud to work with you towards your goals. I want you to be emotionally prepared for markets to turn south, in case a downturn occurs, but enjoy the ride we’re on. My goal is to educate you on how I manage your money and what is happening within our economy, yet also give you extreme confidence that I’m managing everyone’s money with the same strategic intentions regardless of your knowledge level. I believe that Moore F.S. clients generally make great decisions, and a well-educated client values the duties a fiduciary is tasked with. I will continue to monitor your asset allocations based upon my research (such as the spread in yields between 2-year treasuries and 10-year treasuries that we discussed previously) and welcome any questions regarding you or your loved one’s personal financial goals, even if it is not directly related to what I’m managing. I believe together we make a great team, and I thank you for the trust you place in me to act as your fiduciary.

1. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history/

2. https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/tlt

3. https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/gs

4. https://www.slickcharts.com/sp500

5.https://www.investopedia.com/articles/basics/06/invertedyieldcurve.asp#:~:text=subsequent%20dotcom%20bubble.-,Explain%20Like%20I%27m%20Five,rippling%20effects%20throughout%20the%20economy.

6. https://www.forbes.com/sites/bill_stone/2025/03/23/five-critical-indicators-to-gauge-recession-risk/

7. https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/chicago-fed-letter/2018/404

8. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history/

9. https://www.hartfordfunds.com/practice-management/client-conversations/managing-volatility/timing-the-market-is-impossible.html

10. https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-pe-ratio/table/by-month

11. https://www.axios.com/2025/08/19/ai-jobs-morgan-stanley

12. https://static.twentyoverten.com/59c3c101e4aca23f978ab339/FlwDhBgiv_m/SPIVA-US-Scorecard-Year-End1-2023.pdf

period of declining values. Past performance may not be used to predict future results. Investment advisory services offered by duly registered

individuals on behalf of CreativeOne Wealth, LLC a Registered Investment Adviser. CreativeOne Wealth, LLC and Moore Financial Solutions

are unaffiliated entities. Licensed Insurance Professional. Insurance product guarantees are backed by the financial strength and claims-paying

ability of the issuing company.

Moore Financial Solutions 2nd Quarter 2025

Mon, 14 Jul 2025 14:37:25 GMT

The stock market carousel continued in the second quarter of 2025, with some investors jumping off, while others jumped aboard. Aiming for a solid return to follow a negative 4.59% Q1, the S&P 500 slated a 10.57% return for our second quarter (1). During this most recent quarter, I leaned on my beliefs mentioned fifteen months ago in my Q1 2024 Moore Financial Solutions review; “we feel that investors unknowingly become more faithful in broad U.S. equities to recover after a downturn.” In that previous review I offered a thought that investors have become more trusting that markets will recover after seeing it happen in the 29 historical bear markets, as compared to the first ever bear market, for example. Though my continued theory is that the average bear market duration will decrease over time (with younger investors portfolio managing more assets and algorithmic trading increasing), even I was surprised by the minor 83-day bear market speed bump that the S&P 500 shook off, given that prior to this the average bear market was 289 days (2). The S&P 500 would go on to close Q2 both positive for the year and at record highs. In this quarterly review we’ll look at how bear markets are rarely the same and how our strategy must evolve. We’ll discuss a stubbornly high interest rate, our positioning for potential interest rate decreases, and global matters affecting the market.

It’s been said for years that the stock market takes the escalator up and the elevator down. But why? Simply put, this is the result of the driving forces of selling and buying stocks. If investors are optimistic, they’ll commonly allocate to the stock market in an attempt to grow their money. But too much of this buying is deemed greedy and is a great evil of long-term investing. If investors, however, are fearful, they’ll sell their stocks, (at least the less emotionally committed, shorter term investors), driving the price of stocks lower. We believe Q2 is a great example of the battle between fear and greed, and the only real concern is being wrong on predicting short-term market movements. Over the first six trading days of Q2, investors sharply drove the S&P 500 about 11.2% lower, with panic fueled by President Donald Trump’s April 2nd liberation day announcements (3). A resilient S&P 500 would heal the 11.2% wound in only 17 trading days, leaving behind investors who may have been scared out of the market near April 8th closing lows on the S&P 500 of 4,982.77 (4). This would be the first and only closing price below 5,000 on the S&P 500 from April 20th, 2024, to today’s July 1st, 2025, date. In our opinion, this supports our thoughts regarding algorithmic trading, which likely conducted heavy buying at levels of support below 5,000. April 9th would serve as the third largest one-day gain for the S&P 500 in history, increasing by about 9.5% (5). We view the sudden announcements and emotional reactions in the stock market as a great reason to stay the course in our investments. By staying focused on our long-term perspective, while short-term winners and losers argue over the current price, we’ll be less likely to panic and instead willing to accept an average return, rather than attempt to outsmart the market. Moore F.S. was able to capitalize in some situations by selling bonds and buying stocks, when appropriate. While it is not fully determined who lost what, it is implied that a portion of investors locked in losses in Q2, by panic selling with the herd mentality near April 8th lows. These investors would, as a result, miss out on what would become a fruitful Q2 for those willing to wait the required 84 days and not be emotionally rattled.

A tug-of-war has ensued between President Trump and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. As chair Powell is tasked with threading the needle with his interest rate decrease timing strategy. President Trump has openly encouraged chair Powell to move more quickly on interest rate cuts in hopes of easing consumer budgets and helping federal debt costs. The extreme difficulty for Powell, as mentioned in our past reviews, lies in his attempt to ensure that inflation expectations get back to his two percent goal, which has been made more difficult with tariffs. However, he must not keep rates elevated too long, potentially harming economic growth. Moore F.S. remains under the expectation that the Federal Reserve has at least one percent of cuts coming within the next year and has uniquely positioned portfolios for this occurrence. We anticipate investors being able to capitalize on a decreasing interest rate for varying reasons. Investors closer to their goal or in retirement may hold bond funds that will appreciate from interest rate decreases. For these investors, Moore F.S. has specifically chosen to primarily hold long duration bond funds, which stand to benefit greater from interest rate decreases. For all investors, even those that do not hold bond funds (bonds historically may be too conservative for long term investors), we’ve generally increased the weighting of small/mid cap companies in names such as iShares Core S&P Small Cap ETF (ticker symbol IJR), iShares S&P Mid-Cap 400 Value ETF (IJJ), iShares S&P Mid-Cap 400 Growth ETF (IJK). A strategy that increases weightings of positions rather than full sell or buy orders.

Zooming out to global matters we highlight the June 22nd, 2025, operation Midnight Hammer which targeted Iranian nuclear facilities Fordo, Natanz and Isfahan. Regarding the effectiveness of the damage, “several key Iranian nuclear facilities were destroyed and would have to be rebuilt over the course of years,” CIA Director John Ratcliffe said (7). When trading next occurred on June 23rd, 2025, the S&P 500 rose about one percent for the day (8). WTI Crude oil dropped 7.2% vs the prior Friday closing price (9) . In the opinion of Moore F.S. these reactions were a relief trade from a situation that could have been far worse. While we do not see this as the best-case scenario, we think it was far from a worst-case scenario. Additionally, President Trump has made very clear that our strikes will continue if Iran is unwilling to make a deal regarding their nuclear program or if they make a deal and do not honor it. As markets have been known to “climb a wall of worry” it seems the market has climbed past the Iran worry momentarily as the S&P 500 would go on to close Q2 about 4% higher after the strikes by the United States on Iran.

“Death and taxes,” the humorous way we describe uncomfortable things you can count on. Sadly, I’m here to add to your list, rough patches in the stock market. You might as well save yourself the future discomfort by just adding it to your list now. The stock market is going to have terrible moments, it is inevitable. Although I’m celebrating my thirteenth year of passionately managing money, organizing assets for clients, and helping to control human emotions, I’m far more proud that Moore F.S. celebrates its fifth anniversary this year. In those short five years I’ve managed portfolios through Covid-19, the great inflationary spike and interest rate increases that would follow, and now this most recent bear market of 2025. No two downturns are the same, so the recovery strategy can vary greatly and seem unclear. I want to thank you for your tremendous confidence in me and my abilities to manage you through any market cycle. With no statistical data to back it up, I believe Moore F.S. clients must be some of the best in the area at understanding that the market might just go down three times faster than it increases and recognizing that the normal human emotion of panic/fear may come over you at times but not letting it get the better of your actions. The good news is that I believe, in solely my own opinion, that a bear market’s average duration will continue to decrease as Q2 offers yet another suggestion to ride the market movements as an investor, rather than timing the market and introducing lucky/unlucky gamblers. I wish you and your families a healthy and prosperous Summer and hope your investments perform well. It is with great pride to be just a phone call away and always willing to talk about any of your financial strategies or questions you may have. Moore F.S. seeks to serve our clients beyond just the account in which we provide financial management.

1. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history/

2. https://www.hartfordfunds.com/practice-management/client-conversations/managing-volatility/bear-markets.html

3. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history/

4. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history/

5. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history/

6. https://www.morningstar.com/markets/when-will-fed-start-cutting-interest-rates

7. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/cia-irans-nuclear-program-severely-damaged-trump-iran-strikes-fbi-probes-leak/

8. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history/

9. https://oilprice.com/oil-price-charts/

period of declining values. Past performance may not be used to predict future results. Investment advisory services offered by duly registered

individuals on behalf of CreativeOne Wealth, LLC a Registered Investment Adviser. CreativeOne Wealth, LLC and Moore Financial Solutions

are unaffiliated entities. Licensed Insurance Professional. Insurance product guarantees are backed by the financial strength and claims-paying

ability of the issuing company.

Moore Financial Solutions 1st Quarter 2025

Thu, 10 Apr 2025 15:37:55 GMT

About thirteen years ago when I started my career as a Financial Services Professional, I was almost instantly astute to the number one factor that determines client success. Of course, this determination was solely my own opinion. I’ve never turned on CNBC and heard scientific data backing it and likely never will. You can nearly ignore researching passive management vs. active management, throw out a comparison of exchange traded funds vs. mutual funds, and forget all about whether a Roth IRA or Traditional IRA suits you best. I believe the number one determinate of success that a client must have is “Proper Expectations”. It is by no coincidence that I believe Moore Financial Solutions clients have extremely reasonable, and ultimately the proper, expectations regarding investing. Investing long term is no casino, rather a patient approach to creating current income and future earnings. Prior to gaining licensure to be on your side financially, I know people that panicked and sold their entire portfolio and moved to cash positions in the Great Recession of 2008-09. They told the story years later to me regarding the vast missed opportunity and harm in locking in the losses. Imagine an investor panicking in Q1 of 2009 and selling stocks below 700 on the S&P 500, an index that is about eight times higher today at 5,635 (1). The S&P 500 would see gains of over 75% in the eleven months to follow, peaking this client’s FOMO and desire to get back into the market, only to sharply drop 16% over the next two months (2). My advice to you, and the number one way I can help you with your investment success, continue not being like this example investor. But rather, stay rooted in your investment philosophy.

Realistically, the stages of someone’s investment life are humorous. We typically have little money early on, and it is easy to overcome the emotional impact from the money movement (a 10% decline in a portfolio of $2,500 might equate to a couple days’ earnings). But the problem is, there aren’t ample funds in that portfolio to provide life-changing growth either. For example, last year’s approximately 25% increase in a hypothetical S&P 500 index would have added only $500 to that portfolio. You want to play in the big leagues? Think you can handle the emotional impact of stocks and bonds? Try having an account of $750,000 or $1,000,000. You might want to pick up a fun hobby known for reducing stress, because there are going to be times when your portfolio hits rough spots. But there is good news too. Mathematically, just a 5% return on one million dollars is a gain of $50,000, and the reward for taming the emotional torment is much greater. Sadly, Q1 2025 was a great month to lean on those stress-reducing hobbies because the S&P 500 moved 4.59% lower for the quarter (3). Additionally, the S&P 500 moved 8.66% lower from February 19th, 2025, to the end of Q1 (4). Though the 4.59% has some sting to it, moving down nearly 9% in 40 days undeniably tests the emotional resilience of an investor, and we understand this firsthand. We are excitedly moving forward with this quarterly review to discuss what moved markets, tariffs, and what opportunities may arise.

Without question, Wall Street found it very difficult to plan around the Trump tariff shifts. On January 26th, 2025, President Donald Trump announced a 25% tariff on Columbian imports as President Gustavo Petro attempted to decline inbound Columbian migrants. Petro retaliated with a 25% tariff against United States made imports. Shortly after, Petro begrudgingly received the migrants, and the trade dispute 2 ended, providing our president a quick trade war win. Moore F.S. believes this quick victory would go on to fuel President Trump’s confidence using tariffs as weaponry. On February 1st, 2025, President Trump laid the foundation for a 10% China tariff and 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico. Just two days later the president would signal a 30 day pause on each of our neighbor’s 25% tariff (5). These back-and-forth movements continued off and on for much of the first quarter, with many tariff strategies subjecting only specific industries, e.g. automakers or steel producers, creating not only volatility in the broad stock market but especially within specific industries caught up in the talks. President Trump has labeled April 2nd, 2025, as “liberation day” signaling a big event. Throughout this back-and-forth, Moore Financial Solutions has made every effort not to be on the “wrong side” of the trade and has remained well rooted within our equity portfolio, when appropriate. We view, as mentioned in previous quarterly reviews, the volatility within the stock market as the “cost” or “price” paid emotionally to be able to receive the effective returns stocks could offer. In greater detail, rather than Moore F.S. attempting to time markets or predict the president’s next move and potentially being wrong, we’ll ride the storm out. Although Moore F.S. does not predict a bear market (described as a move down of 20% in the stock market), we point to the resilience of the stock market, overcoming all 29 previous bear markets and having done so rather quickly, taking an average of only 289 days to recover from the drop (6). Though we can’t rely on past market performance to guarantee its future, we believe this reaffirms our approach to using the stock market for clients with a long enough time horizon and ability to pay the emotional “cost” of seeing a portfolio move lower. Moore F.S. has theorized in past quarterly reviews, with no data to back it up, algorithmic trading (computers buying stocks at a “floor” or low point which might give the market support), and a trend of increasingly younger portfolio managers who have only seen speedy recoveries and long bull market rides might reduce the average bear market duration.

One of the main goals of these reviews is to provide a more detailed analysis of what is happening in global markets. Within Q1 of 2025 the “magnificent 7” stocks (Google/Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta/Facebook, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla) became a lagger of the broad market, the other 493 stocks that make up the S&P 500 for example. In Q1 this “mag 7” collection made up 32% of the S&P 500, up 12.3% from 2015 (8). This crowded trade became a rush for the exit in Q1 2025 as the “mag 7” dropped 16%, while the 493-company counterpart recorded a positive gain of .01% (9). We believe this can be viewed more as a rotational trade with unequally weighted stocks, a net negative to the broad market. Moore F.S. aims to not make this mistake in the future and rebalance into equally weighted indexes when concentrations at the top become elevated. Attempting to soften the blow for some Moore F.S. clients, when appropriate, includes fixed income weightings. We view the 4.24% increase in the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond Exchange Traded Fund (TLT) as a promising sign that bonds can provide cushion, as there is a flight to safety out of the equity markets and investors sell stocks and buy bonds. Investors with a reasonably longer time horizon may be able to benefit from this market movement in several ways, including rebalancing from fixed income to the stock market, IRA to Roth IRA conversion, contributing to stocks while at lower levels, and/or increasing the monthly amounts flowing into investment plans. We believe most economic cycles offer opportunities like this to take advantage of fluctuations, and just like you, we’re trying to identify if this is a new business cycle, or a brief passing storm.

The emotional cost of holding stocks feels elevated, and I am right there with you! To move away from the progress we’ve experienced in leading you to your goals is difficult, and as President Trump explains there might be more pain to come. I trade your portfolio carefully and prudently, but this might be one of the harder moments to feel clarity in the global markets. Unlike the movements lower during Covid-19 or the Financial Crisis of 08-09, this whole trade dispute could end today. Moreover, it becomes difficult to make large portfolio movements when President Trump (or other global leaders) could pick up the phone and have a 180-degree policy rotation. The scenario in paragraph one, riding the stock market lower, then selling stocks only to miss the recovery, is a worst-case management strategy and will not occur under my management. Instead, I’d rather take my chances that if the market dips, it can also recover. I encourage you to hold that same calming belief.

1. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history/

2. https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/10/trumps-mass-deportation-plan-immigrant-workers-and-economy.html

3. https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/fomc-meeting

4. https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/fomc-meeting

5. https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/tlt

This material has been prepared for information and educational purposes and should not be construed as a solicitation for the purchase or sale

of any investment. The content is developed from sources believed to be reliable. This information is not intended to be investment, legal or

tax advice. Investing involves risk, including the loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in a

period of declining values. Past performance may not be used to predict future results. Investment advisory services offered by duly registered

individuals on behalf of CreativeOne Wealth, LLC a Registered Investment Adviser. CreativeOne Wealth, LLC and Moore Financial Solutions

are unaffiliated entities. Licensed Insurance Professional. Insurance product guarantees are backed by the financial strength and claims-paying

ability of the issuing company.

Moore Financial Solutions 4th Quarter 2024

Thu, 23 Jan 2025 21:26:55 GMT

It is with great pleasure to work as your trusted advisor for another year! We hope you and your family had a Merry Christmas and you’re headed into a Happy New Year. To the surprise of some other financial firms, the stock market created sizable gains in 2024 with the S&P 500 increasing 23.3%, ironically within 1% of the year prior’s 24.23%. Additionally, that same market index returned a modest 2.06% in the fourth quarter of 2024, with all figures mentioned not including dividends (1). With Q4 of 2024 hosting one of the biggest elections of our lives, at least as described by some, we plan to discuss how our money management strategy evolves. We proudly stayed true to our strategy and didn’t decrease our allocation to stocks, while many other firms were selling covered calls and reducing their allocation to stocks as they incorrectly predicted a downturn in the markets for 2024.

Even if you were living under a rock, you were likely informed that Donald Trump is headed back to the White House. We reference this change with the understanding that the leadership of current President Joe Biden is quite contrasting to the leadership we’ve seen from Donald Trump in the past, and his campaign promises. The Federal Reserve seemed to have had to slightly adjust their projected pace of rate cuts with the understanding that Trump will be more favorable to the economy through deregulation, corporate tax cuts, and repatriation of jobs. These factors, along with the deportation initiatives, may reignite inflation in the short term. The Center for American Progress puts the undocumented immigrant population in the United States at around 11.3 million, with 7 million of them working (2). To make matters worse, many of these jobs are considered “difficult to fill” and/or “less desirable jobs”. We believe the Federal Reserve felt the need to signal plans to slow rate reductions, after reducing rates in 2024. In September, the median projection for the end of 2025 implied four more rate cuts next year, but the median projection from December’s meeting only projects two more cuts (3). Below is the Federal Reserve’s dot plot, which is a chart that visually represents each member of the Federal Reserve's policymaking committee's projection for where they expect the federal funds rate (the benchmark interest rate) to be over the next few years.

In our efforts to monetize the movements of interest rates, and more importantly monitor the risk/reward of your portfolio, we made major adjustments to our fixed income holdings in Q4 2024. As a reminder, a significant percentage of fixed income is typically not to be held by clients with a long-time horizon. Fixed income generally offers an inverse relationship with stocks, giving a client the ability to diversify their positions and offer rebalancing strategies in years in which the broad stock market retracts, so we feel very strongly that clients closer in time to their goal should own at least some fixed income. Near the end of the 3rd quarter, it seemed everyone was convinced that interest rates had to go lower, but we remained doubtful that the Federal Reserve had accomplished their goal of getting inflation to 2%. In reaction to a sticky inflationary environment, but with falling rates in the bond market, we took the stance that rates would creep back up. Within the last couple of weeks of Q3 we sold about $900,000 worth of our iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (ticker TLT) as we felt the bond market had gotten ahead of the Federal Reserve. We received approximately $98.95/share when sold at approximately September 20th, 2024. Knowing the importance of bonds, we decided to invest these proceeds in iShares Short Duration Bond Active ETF (ticker NEAR). Though both bond funds would continue to lose price, as bonds would naturally do when interest rates increase, the NEAR lost only about 1.5% while we avoided losses in the TLT of 11.2% (5). On 12/30/2024 we reversed this position, partly based upon the dot plot pictured above, which shows where the voting members of the Federal Reserve predicted interest rates will be in the future, purchasing back into the TLT at a price of $87.8399 and reaffirming our position of about $1.3 million within that ETF. Though catching a falling knife (the low point of the TLT) is never easy, and the price may go lower, we view this entry as a means to lock in the gain (actually the losses we avoided by being out of the TLT while it fell) rather than attempting to time the exact bottom. Additionally, when we moved from the TLT to the NEAR, the NEAR offered a higher yield, versus when we moved back the TLT was offering a higher yield. Our goal is to have a strong relationship with clients, centered on a strong foundation of communication to be able to make the changes that we see fit, and discuss how this impacts portfolios.

The strategy of Moore F.S. has always been to swing the bat for singles and doubles, and if home runs occur, that is a bonus. Our portfolios in 2024 included a tech and large cap stock heavy allocation, and we still believe in these positions. However, we only aim for about 90% of our allocations to be in broad ETFs and 10% in single stocks. We seek single stocks that are trading at a discount or offer what we think may be greater opportunities than the broad market. In our Q1 review in 2024 we discussed in detail some of the problems with the American food system and elected to use Natural Grocers (NGVC) in many of our portfolios. This single stock position went on to create more gains for our clients than we charged to manage portfolios in 2024, a scenario we live for. We view this as a success story of actively doing our own management, as opposed to using high-cost mutual funds to actively manage a portfolio.

As mentioned, I’m proud to be your financial advisor for another year and personally can’t wait to see what 2025 brings. That being said, how good can 2025 really be after two straight years of 20%+ returns? Although no one really knows the answer, hypothetically it could still be another 20% year, but we highly doubt that. We think the broad market will hit tough times in 2025, due to bonds offering a competitive yield close to 5% in many cases. Years ago, we felt that stocks were the only game in town, but with bonds selling at an attractive price and paying a decent dividend, stocks may become challenged. I believe the impacts of Donald Trump back in the White House will provide a similar result as he previously did, which was a red-hot stock market and economy. While you may hear in the media tariffs are bad, realistically their goal is to create a more level playing field for domestically made products against other countries who may be actively manipulating their currencies to price out domestically made goods. Moreover, in our opinion a 15% tariff doesn’t raise your costs by 15%, rather directs you to purchase domestic goods that might be 5% higher in cost with the ripple effects of buying locally more than making up for this 5% cost. I view the savings on energy costs will more than mitigate this burden. My largest worry is the debt this country is burdened with, and how that might elevate rates for a longer duration. My vow continues to be managing your account in what I believe is your very best interest, without becoming overly confident from my previous homerun hitting stocks. I’m looking forward to discussing your portfolio with you and welcome any thoughts or questions you may have regarding your goals. I believe with nearly 13 years of experience, I’m well balanced with experience and future longevity and encourage you to come to me with any suggestions of your friends and family that can benefit from working with me. Thank you for your continued trust and business and I look forward to another successful year working with your goals!

Tyler A. Moore

1. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history/

2. https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/10/trumps-mass-deportation-plan-immigrant-workers-and-economy.html

3. https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/fomc-meeting

4. https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/fomc-meeting

5. https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/tlt

This material has been prepared for information and educational purposes and should not be construed as a solicitation for the purchase or sale

of any investment. The content is developed from sources believed to be reliable. This information is not intended to be investment, legal or

tax advice. Investing involves risk, including the loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in a

period of declining values. Past performance may not be used to predict future results. Investment advisory services offered by duly registered

individuals on behalf of CreativeOne Wealth, LLC a Registered Investment Adviser. CreativeOne Wealth, LLC and Moore Financial Solutions

are unaffiliated entities. Licensed Insurance Professional. Insurance product guarantees are backed by the financial strength and claims-paying

ability of the issuing company.

Moore Financial Solutions 3rd Quarter 2024

Tue, 01 Oct 2024 19:51:27 GMT

With an election looming and the market going through what has historically been a bearish period for stocks, all eyes are on the Federal Reserve regarding their interest rate policy. The third quarter of 2024 offered positive returns for the S&P 500 of 5.53% (not including dividends) to close the quarter at 5,762.48 (1). The real narrative of Q3 is the emergence of bonds finally complementing stocks and producing a positive return, as illustrated by the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (ticker TLT) being up 6.89% (without dividends) (2). We’ll discuss our active management as well as more thoroughly discuss our fixed income strategy. Additionally, we plan to highlight allocation strategies regarding various asset classes as the Federal Reserve goes through their interest rate decrease cycle, and of course we’ll discuss potential impacts from the election.

In our last quarterly review we offered, “We currently expect that rate cut to occur during the fourth quarter of this year, or slightly sooner.” This was far from a bold prediction as most of Wall Street agreed on this timing. Nonetheless, September 18th, 2024, was a huge day for the markets and Moore F.S. as the Federal Reserve reduced rates by .5% (3). However, the rate cut of .5% was slightly higher than the typical .25% cut, leaving some wondering if this was a sign the Federal Reserve should have reduced rates sooner and more gradually. As a reminder, the Federal Reserve had to aggressively increase rates to stomp down inflation that had arisen very quickly, and this rate decrease was a means to normalize rates in response to normalizing inflation data. In the opinion of Moore F.S., the bond market was not only pricing in this normal rate reduction, but additionally pricing in a recession, an event that would even more significantly decrease interest rates. In other words, as time went on without a rate decrease, some feared this meant a “hard landing” was in store for the economy because not only did Jerome Powell drive down inflation, but he potentially drove down growth by leaving rates too high for too long.

Moore F.S. stayed true to our belief, and continued to voice a high likelihood of a “soft landing” in which the Federal Reserve’s timing of rate reduction is just right, or at least close enough. In this Goldilocks situation that we forecasted; Americans were earning interest income at a much greater rate given the sudden increase in rates which increases their discretionary spending. In addition, the labor market remained strong, thus keeping the economy very strong and resilient in the face of higher rates. On September 18th, 2024, Jerome Powell stated, “Our economy is strong overall and has made significant progress toward our goals over the past two years. The labor market has cooled from its formerly overheated state. Inflation has eased substantially from a peak of 7 percent to an estimated 2.2 percent as of August. We’re committed to maintaining our economy’s strength by supporting maximum employment and returning inflation to our 2 percent goal. Today, the Federal Open Market Committee decided to reduce the degree of policy restraint by lowering our policy interest rate by ½ percentage point. This decision reflects our growing confidence that with an appropriate recalibration of our policy stance, strength in the labor market can be maintained in a context of moderate growth and inflation moving sustainably down to 2 percent.” (4) We interpret this information to be straightforward and we give the Federal Reserve credit for the transparency it has given regarding policy change.

In our opinion the bond market was pricing in a mild recession while the Chairman of the Federal Reserve was giving the message of confidence within the United States economy, it became the opinion of Moore F.S. that appropriate allocation changes needed to be made within our fixed income assets. On September 19th, 2024, we began the process of decreasing duration within our fixed income assets by selling our nearly million dollar position of iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (ticker TLT) and received an approximate price of $98.95 per share. TLT closed the quarter at $98.10 (5). This longer duration debt ETF was generally replaced with the Blackrock Short Duration Bond ETF (ticker NEAR). This decision was reached for two primary reasons. First, we believe that TLT has moved rapidly higher on fears of a recession, not simply the Federal Reserve’s policy change.

As rates ease back up as we envision, we believe that shorter duration debt will outperform. In other words, the bond market has gotten a bit ahead of the Federal Reserve. Secondly, TLT offered a yield of about 3.4% compared to the more attractive yield of about 5.14% in NEAR. We aimed to be heavily in long duration debt while interest rates decreased, and now aim to shift into shorter duration holdings. Not all clients hold fixed income funds.

Though Moore F.S. tries to stay away from interest rate prognostications, we believe the yield curve will move entirely out of the inverted stage in 2025 as the Federal Reserve moves the Fed Funds rate back to a more normal level. Currently, the curve is still inverted in some areas. We believe banks will be a significant beneficiary of the normalization in interest rates as their lending operations become more profitable. When the yield curve is inverted, profit margins tend to fall for companies that borrow cash at short-term rates and lend at long-term rates, such as community banks (6). In other words, your bank was probably not as excited as you were to see moderate term certificates of deposit paying 4.00% and mortgages written at 6.5% than they would be to see rates on their deposits earning .5% and mortgages written at 5.00%. Simply put, banks care about the spread in interest rates not one given rate. In response to a normalizing yield curve, and potential steepening of the curve, Moore F.S. clients sold broad market ETF’s and purchased Goldman Sachs (ticker GS) within the third quarter. This, like the conversation regarding TLT previously, only applied to some accounts where we viewed this action as appropriate.

In addition to the interest margins improving for Goldman Sachs, we see this adjustment as an advantage to investors for two reasons. First, Goldman Sachs offers a better P/E ratio than the broad market at approximately 16. For more information on P/E ratios please see our First Quarter ’24 review in paragraph two where we discuss how P/E ratios influence our management approach. Secondly, Moore F.S. is always attempting to keep expense ratios lower by using single stocks in small weightings when appropriate. We hope this exemplifies the firm working hard to keep your expenses under control, while many other firms might simply use pre-built models, passing that higher cost on to you. We feel it is important to mention that Moore F.S. will never attempt to time markets, but rather react to public information and manage each account individually to the best of our ability.

Below charts the spread between two and ten year U.S. treasury obligations, which is generally the spread analyzed The yield curve on September 30th, 2024, showing short term debt obligations paying a higher yield than long term obligations by most technicians. Historically investors have been rewarded with a higher yield for risking their money for a longer duration, but not always. Keep in mind, ultra short rates, such as the three-month treasury obligation offer 4.73% (7), and moderate term rates, such as the ten-year treasury obligation offer 3.81%, as of the last day of the quarter (8). We feel this temporary inversion is holding banks like Goldman Sachs back from their full potential.

From the perspective of the stock market and global economy operating smoothly, we view the best election outcome as one with a clear winner, with conventional wisdom offering that a result that drags on for days is bad for markets. With two candidates offering quite contrasting plans and visions, we see corporations as most likely in a holding pattern, waiting for more clarity in variables such as corporate tax rates or manufacturing location incentives. We imagine these are the same corporations that have been in a holding pattern waiting for more clarity on the path of interest rates for the last couple of years. We feel that corporations benefit from stability and clarity, and when those are low, our best chance to manage portfolios appropriately is to not take a side, but rather, feel that our portfolios can benefit from either candidate winning. Once the election is passed, we will plan to craft portfolios in the fourth quarter in preparation for 2025 based on our view of the path of leadership.

With another quarter passing by, I want to take a moment to thank you for your continued trust in me as your advisor and remind you that your financial goals are my professional goals. As I continually say, investing on any scale tends to be an emotional experience and I very much try to cushion that emotion for a client, if possible, without becoming too conservative. In other words, I must walk a fine line between selecting assets that blend well to potentially bring correlation or risk down in a portfolio, without including such conservative assets that reduce our chances of hitting your long-term goals. This will be my fourth U.S. presidential election while entrusted to manage assets, and my focus tends to be twofold; not try to predict a winner in my style of investing and to get clients through it. One key take away I have from listening over the years is how people have managed their own money through elections. Though I don’t have solid research or data to back it up, it is my experience that do-it yourself investors often make far too drastic of allocation changes that are far too dependent on the outcome they have predicted. I highly encourage you to take just a moment to think of someone that could benefit from the no pressure advice and strategies that Moore F.S. offers. In today’s transient labor market, everyone knows someone that has transitioned jobs and has left behind 401(k) assets. Think to yourself how those assets might perform sitting there, compared to how they might succeed over long periods of time at Moore F.S. My hope is for you and your family to have another great holiday season and a great end to 2024 between now and my next review. As always, I’m personally just a phone call away if you need anything or have any questions.

Tyler A. Moore

This material has been prepared for information and educational purposes and should not be construed as a solicitation for the purchase or sale

of any investment. The content is developed from sources believed to be reliable. This information is not intended to be investment, legal or

tax advice. Investing involves risk, including the loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in a

period of declining values. Past performance may not be used to predict future results. Investment advisory services offered by duly registered

individuals on behalf of CreativeOne Wealth, LLC a Registered Investment Adviser. CreativeOne Wealth, LLC and Moore Financial Solutions

are unaffiliated entities. Licensed Insurance Professional. Insurance product guarantees are backed by the financial strength and claims-paying

ability of the issuing company.

Moore Financial Solutions 2nd Quarter 2024

Fri, 19 Jul 2024 19:40:55 GMT

The party continues through the second quarter of 2024, as the S&P 500 rises another 3.92%, not including dividends (1). After a fruitful 2023, where the S&P 500 climbed 24.23%, coupled with a surprising Q1 of 2024 where it ran up another 10.158%, we felt like it would be a victory just to maintain those levels for the second quarter (2). However, the strong buying momentum of the U.S. stock market continued, as consumers remained strong despite the Federal Reserve’s policies to slow the economy with higher-than-normal interest rates. Join us as we review the financial impacts of the last quarter and discuss our forecasts for the rest of the year.

Interest rates increased slightly within the second quarter, illustrated by the United States 10-year Treasury Note moving up from 4.205% to 4.402% (3). Though the Federal Reserve did not increase their rates, the treasury yields that are priced based upon supply and demand moved higher. This remains troubling for bond investors. Additionally, the largest Moore Financial Solutions’ fixed income holding, the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) moved lower for the quarter. This approximately 3% downward move from $94.62 to $91.78 decreases the total return on a balanced portfolio (4). Many Moore F.S. investors that are near their goal, such as retirement, cushion the volatility of stocks with these bonds. In a quarter where bonds moved three percent lower in value, a balanced investor (holding stocks and bonds) likely didn’t feel much of the stock market party we mentioned. We feel this interest rate increase occurred because of the continual theme that rate cuts from the Federal Reserve have been pushed farther down the road. It seems Jerome Powell is putting more weight on the risk of cutting rates too soon, and not fully beating inflation, as opposed to cutting rates too late and the economy being weighed down from rates being too high for too long. Moore F.S. has remained committed to only using fixed income and bonds

when necessary. We believe investors with long time horizons and the ability to tolerate stock market volatility should remain fully allocated to stocks, which historically have provided a higher return, although we can make no guarantees for their future performance or that they can’t lose money. For investors using fixed income, our investment strategy (when appropriate) is to diversify their fixed income holdings with longer duration bond holdings, like the TLT mentioned above, and shorter duration treasury bills. We believe longer duration treasuries will gain value when Jerome Powell finally cuts interest rates. We currently expect that rate cut to occur during the

fourth quarter of this year, or slightly sooner. We feel Jerome Powell isn’t comfortable with zero rate reductions for 2024.

If you’re anything like us, May 16th of 2024 was a special day, we were finally able to wear our Dow 40k hats as the Dow Jones Industrial Average reached record high levels of 40,000 points. The recent stock market performance has been so productive that it only took 873 days to move from 30,000 points to 40,000 points (5). Our purpose of reflecting on these numbers is to advocate to readers of the potential to build wealth in the stock market. Additionally, we don’t particularly care for the Dow Jones Industrial Average as a benchmark as it is only comprised of 30 companies, compared to the S&P 500 holding 500 companies. However, we feel that the perspective of the stock market’s long-term ability to potentially create gains can be illustrated by comparing Dow Jones values at various times. Only about four years ago with the Covid-19 stock market scare, the Dow traded at about 20,704 in the week of March 24th, 2020, signifying a near doubling of the index since then (6). When I began my career as a financial professional with First Investors in the week of July 19th, 2012, the index traded near 12,943, seeing a better than tripling effect from then to now (7). In response to the Great Financial Crisis of ’08-’09

the Dow traded at only 6,875 in the week of March 4th, 2009 (8). It is because of these prices on these dates that we feel the stock market offers the ability to potentially ride out ups and downs and build wealth long term. To use the example of the Covid-19 scare, Moore F.S. was continually reminding clients that we believed they should stay put in equities, as opposed to the emotional reaction many investors had to sell and move to cash. We believe there is significance in reaching these emotional values so rapidly and, as we have mentioned in recent quarterly reviews, we believe confidence in markets remains at near record high levels and is increasing. To use the analogy of

climbing a mountain from 20,704ft. to 40,000ft., take a moment and look around and be proud of your accomplishment.

If you’re new to Moore F.S. you might not be entirely aware of our strategy as it relates to investment holdings. Our aim is to keep your investment holdings’ costs very low, and not, for example try to generate revenue on another 1% mutual fund charge. Instead of higher cost mutual funds, Moore F.S. strives to use exchange traded funds, such as our largest holdings the iShares Core S&P 500 ETF by Blackrock (ticker IVV). This funds’ expense ratio is only .03% (9). To take that one step farther Moore F.S. uses single stocks (no expense

ratio) if the situation is appropriate and allows. In March, Moore F.S. added the position of Natural Grocers (NGVC) to nearly all our managed accounts in optimism of the company’s position moving forward. NGVC moved higher in Q2 to close June 28th, 2024, at $21.20 (10). We feel strongly about the future growth potential of NGVC, particularly their ability to grow their own line of products and price them accurately and with competitive advantage. Sadly, our largest single stock holding, Builders First Source Inc. (BLDR) moved approximately 33.63% lower in the second quarter (11). If you’ve been around a while you remember Moore F.S. began buying the

BLDR in the mid to low 40’s back in 2021 and have continued to buy at virtually all levels. This movement lower in the BLDR creates even more reasons to hold the stock in our opinion, as the P/E ratio has dipped below 12 (12). We feel that the Federal Reserve not having the ability to print more houses signifies great opportunities in the BLDR. Moreover, traders seem to have been overly cruel to the BLDR, weighing higher interest rates and a hunger for short-term gains in other areas of the market, such as technology.

With this quarter seeing the broad stock market at higher levels than last quarter, all eyes remain on the Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Traders hope that he will hint at whether rate cuts will begin in the third or fourth quarter of the year, with very few expecting that rate cut to come in 2025. My goal remains to manage every account as your advisor in a unique way and ultimately not be setting up portfolios to “need” rate cuts urgently. With an election year, the expectation of market volatility is high, and I personally encourage you to give me a call if you would like to discuss my strategy for your account or have someone you care about that you’d like

to refer to the firm. To use the analogy given above, I’m proud to stand here at 40,000ft and it is with great pride to be your trusted partner when it relates to your valuable goals.

1. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history/

2. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history/

3. https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/tmubmusd10y?countrycode=bx&mod=home-page

4. https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/tlt/charts?mod=mw_quote_advanced

5. https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/djia

6. https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/djia

7. https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/djia

8. https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/djia

9. https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/ivv/charts?mod=mw_quote_advanced

10. https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/ngvc/charts?mod=mw_quote_advanced

11. https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/bldr/charts?mod=mw_quote_advanced

12. https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/bldr/charts?mod=mw_quote_advanced

period of declining values. Past performance may not be used to predict future results. Investment advisory services offered by duly registered

individuals on behalf of CreativeOne Wealth, LLC a Registered Investment Adviser. CreativeOne Wealth, LLC and Moore Financial Solutions

are unaffiliated entities. Licensed Insurance Professional. Insurance product guarantees are backed by the financial strength and claims-paying

ability of the issuing company.

Moore Financial Solutions First Quarter 2024

Wed, 24 Apr 2024 18:23:36 GMT

The exuberant party continued for equity investors in the first quarter of 2024 as Moore Financial Solutions clients again were rewarded for their holdings in equities (stocks). In our last quarterly review, we voiced confidence in equities stating, “Following a 20% or greater move in stocks, the market was up 22 of 34 of the following years, equating in a positive stock market return the following year occurring 65% of the time (1). We also stated that since 1952, the S&P 500 has averaged a 7% gain during U.S. presidential election years (2).” Our conversational benchmark, the S&P 500 climbed 10.158% in the first quarter of 2024, coming off of a 24.23% S&P 500 return for last year. This quick start to 2024 was a delightful surprise to many households owning stocks, and even a bit of a surprise to Wall Street, with few predicting such an immediately fruitful start to the year. We pridefully remained heavily allocated to high quality equities as they experienced their best Q1 start to a year since 2019. Take five minutes to review with us how we identify where we think exuberance ends and irrational exuberance starts, how just a handful of stocks have resulted in a major portion of overall gains, and how interest rates have remained higher than most predicted thanks to a sticky inflation problem.

While Q1 was not without worry, we felt strongly about the sentiment of U.S. equities. If you’ve read previous Moore F.S. reviews, you know we put a lot of value into Price to Earnings ratios. The P/E ratio will measure a company's share price relative to its earnings per share (EPS) and help to determine how much investors are willing to pay for a stock relative to the company’s earnings (3). The current April 1, 2024, P/E ratio of the S&P 500 is an estimated 27.19, higher than average (4). However, in our opinion this is no indication of pulling the sell lever on equities, as analysts expect overall S&P 500 earnings to rise 9.5% in 2024, after increasing around 4% the prior year (5). With every historical downturn in the S&P 500 having been overcome, we feel that investors unknowingly become more faithful in broad U.S. equities to recover after a downturn, thus naturally leading to a higher P/E ratio. For example, now that the S&P 500 has weathered 29 bear markets since 1928, investors likely feel better about their chances of a recovery now than they did during the first ever bear market. We feel that the “buy and hold” clients, similar to the average Moore F.S. client, tend to drag that P/E ratio upward as we’re more willing to pay for future earnings, and just patiently wait out any downturns. We believe the consumer has been incredibly resilient, even through interest rate increases designed to slow them down, and that earnings will continue their upward trend. If the S&P500 continues with approximately $190/yr of earnings it seems it can expand another 9% before we feel there is a truly overvalued feeling at a 30 P/E ratio.

Moore F.S. strategically uses Exchange Traded Funds (ETF’s) as opposed to mutual funds to give you an advantage of lower expense ratios. Where many firms you see advertised on T.V. simply move you over to a mutual fund for the management process, we specifically tune every portfolio, primarily with ETFs, hoping to avoid the high mutual fund expenses, often as high as 1% per year. However, there can be drawbacks or specific risks to ETFs, such as crowding into a small number of companies. For example, Microsoft is the largest holding within the S&P 500 representing approximately 7.23% compared to Mohawk Industries which represents only about .01% of the index (6). Thus, our largest holding, the Blackrock iShares Core S&P 500 ETF has approximately 723 times more weighting to Microsoft than Mohawk Industries. Furthermore, as your fiduciary we must strike a balance between riding the momentum wave of trends and moving away from them at the right time. “The Magnificent 7” is a nickname referring to seven of the technology giants that have far outperformed the rest of the broad market since the October 12th 2022 closing low price on the S&P 500 of 3,577.03 (7). Made up of Apple,

Google, Microsoft, Tesla, Nvidia, Facebook, and Amazon, The Magnificent 7 returned 112% in 2023, outpacing the S&P 500 index by nearly 90%, and just booked a 17% average return for the first quarter of 2024 beating the broad market by 7% (8). To tie things back into P/E ratios, on January 24th of this year J.P. Morgan discussed how The Magnificent 7 trades at a P/E multiple of 29x, compared to the 17x P/E multiple of the median S&P 500 stock (9). However, we feel this trend will not continue, and although we were early to the interest rate decrease party, we feel strongly that when rates fall this will allow companies that have been left behind the opportunity to catch up. If things continue on this trend we envision utilization of equal weighted funds, that in the example above would own Microsoft and Mohawk Industries in equal weighted percentages. For now, we feel the top-heavy usage of ETF’s stand to continue benefiting from the Artificial Intelligence boom discussed in our past quarterly reviews as Microsoft and Google benefit from A.I. implementation more than a construction/flooring company, for example.

Inflation isn’t just a main street problem, but rather a Wall Street problem as well. As mentioned in previous Moore F.S. reviews the average corporation’s bottom line can easily be eroded due to higher operating or input costs. Moreover, a higher interest rate environment typically leads to higher operating costs for a firm, as they typically choose to leverage debt for operations. Unfortunately, inflation isn’t ideal for stock market performance either, as the real return for stocks (the rate at which stocks produce gains above and beyond the current level of inflation) tends to be higher when inflation is only 2%-3% (10). We believe inflation has been far stickier than forecasted for a variety of factors. The two main factors include the economy simply being more resilient than anticipated and the elevated levels of interest income many Americans experience on their portfolios leading them to have more purchasing power.

Moore F.S. is always fine-tuning portfolios, this is an example of our fiduciary stance in continually managing your money to ensure it is invested in a prudent manner. Moore F.S. added a position of Natural Grocers (NGVC) stock in Q1 ’24. With the average family in America seeing their net worth increase 37% from 2019 to 2022 (11), we believe they give themselves permission to spend more. But with energy levels reelevating and stubbornly high interest and inflation rates, consumers must still be tactical in their budgets. While fast food lines will wrap around buildings until the end of time, consumers are trending towards finding more value in higher quality food, for example comparing the price of a home cooked meal to a Big Mac. Though Natural Grocers isn’t likely to be a direct replacement for McDonalds customers, we believe a shift will occur up the ladder of consumers. Additionally, many consumers are growing impatient with the FDA and EPA to protect their food, with approximately 72 types of pesticides in use in the USA that are banned in Europe, accounting for over 300 million pounds (approximately a quarter of our total usage) of pesticides applied to our soils that would be illegal in Europe. Moore F.S. added this position at $16.94 and we see this as a long-term position requiring years to recognize the full effect of this trend shift. NGVC closed the quarter at $18.05 but reached $19.35 intraday within Q1. NGVC is lightly traded, so will likely remain volatile. For this reason, the position is small, but it is an attempt to create portfolio alpha within your plan, much like Builders First Source (BLDR) has been. While high-end food products are by no means recession proof, we believe many Americans have shifted to real food consumption and will likely not shift back even in the event of a recession. Additionally, Natural Grocers appears to have top notch customer retention plans. Another notable change within Moore F.S. holdings include selling Apple (AAPL). While Moore F.S. has used Apple’s size and global dominance as somewhat of a lightly held core position (with the idea of Moore F.S. being tasked with portfolio management and providing you a small area of expense ratio free products) a complete sell was elected for all Moore F.S. clients at approximately 172.33 as the Justice Department sues Apple in complaint that Apple has a monopoly within smartphone markets (12). Apple closed the quarter at $171.48.

As we approach what appears to be another fruitful year within your portfolio, it remains my goal to personally manage every portfolio in a tactical and prudent manner. I view this year as pivotal regarding the economy’s ability to stand on its own while interest rates remain stubbornly high. While I began the year thinking the Federal Reserve would reduce interest rates three or four times within 2024, I’ve been humbled to hoping for one or two rate cuts. Regardless of the size and timing of interest rates, I feel the consumer is good and will continue to lead to strong stock market performance, with the occasion drawdowns as people take profits, a normal healthy function of the market. Every week we field calls regarding the strategy around interest rates and welcome all financial questions! I believe that if you have a good financial strategy, it can make your chances of success much greater in achieving your goals and am always eager to help you realize those goals. It is with great pride to be your fiduciary and together we make a strong team!

1. https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2023/12/what-happens-after-a-20-up-year-in-the-stockmarket/#:~:

text=The%20stock%20market%20was%20up,%2B18.8%25%20in%20up%20years.

2. https://money.usnews.com/investing/articles/election-2024-how-stocks-perform-in-election-years

3. https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/price-earningsratio.asp

4. https://www.gurufocus.com/economic_indicators/57/pe-ratio-ttm-for-the-sp-500

5. https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/sp-500-end-2024-with-small-gain-after-strong-2023-2024-02-22/

6. https://www.slickcharts.com/sp500

7. https://www.barrons.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-101223/card/today-marks-the-one-year-anniversary-of-the-s-p-500-s-

2022-closing-low-SUws7pzp4RJE3MMMtqIa

8. https://www.investopedia.com/is-the-ride-of-the-magnificent-seven-over-8608006

9. https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/adv/insights/market-insights/market-updates/on-the-minds-of-investors/can-themagnificent-

7-retain-its-magnificence/

10. https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/052913/inflations-impact-stock-returns.asp

11. https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/19/fed-survey-of-consumer-finances-net-worth-surged-in-pandemicera.

html#:~:text=Net%20worth%20for%20the%20typical,and%20pandemic%2Dera%20government%20stimulus.

12. https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/justice-department-sues-apple-monopolizing-smartphone-markets

This material has been prepared for information and educational purposes and should not be construed as a solicitation for the purchase or sell of any investment. The content is developed from sources believed to be reliable. This information is not intended to be investment, legal or tax advice. Investing involves risk, including the loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in a period of declining values. Investment advisory services offered by duly registered individuals on behalf of CreativeOne Wealth, LLC a Registered Investment Adviser. CreativeOne Wealth, LLC and Moore Financial Solutions are unaffiliated entities.

Moore Financial Solutions Fourth Quarter 2023

Thu, 18 Jan 2024 02:51:54 GMT

The time is finally here, your patience and discipline to hold tight in tough market cycles has been

rewarded. The S&P 500 has made a Q4 2023 increase of 11.24%. This upward move in the S&P 500 from 4,288.05 to 4,769.83, was driven mainly by a significant decrease in interest rates (1). As we discussed in our Q2 2022 review, clients were asking, “when will the pain end and what will make it end?” Our answer at the time was, “In our opinion, if inflation readings can begin to show that Federal Reserve policy is having the desired effect, markets will begin to recover.” In December, Moore Financial Solutions investors celebrated news that the Federal Reserve’s primary inflation reading, the core PCE price index, created optimism that inflation had cooled. This measure showed only a 1.9% annualized rate for the past six months, based on Commerce Department data (2).

Though too soon to declare victory, investors drove the 10-year U.S. treasury interest rate in Q4 down from 4.579% to 3.881%, forecasting the Federal Reserve would trade in their “hawkish” views of 2023 for a more “dovish” outlook. This decrease in interest rates was great news to stock investors, especially considering this same benchmark saw rates over 5% in Q4 (3). Additionally, the S&P 500 added 24.23% for the year, which we hope provides confidence to investors that markets have historically recovered after a downturn (4). We hope you can reflect on this as an example of Moore F.S. keeping you grounded in your long-term plan while the media could have scared you out of equities.

Since the Federal Reserve began tightening monetary policy in response to elevated inflation readings, many feared a looming recession. Though this recession has not arrived, many still believe there is potential it still could. Moore F.S. has remained committed in our belief that the Federal Reserve can thread the needle and guide the U.S. economy into a “soft-landing” and avoid a deep recession. In early 2023, many investment firms were becoming nervous of their allocations to stocks and were commonly encouraging investors to trim positions in stocks and brace for a downturn. There was no shortage of “bears” on Wall Street assuming the market would fall in early 2023. JP Morgan was forecasting that the market would "re-test" the lows of 2022 in the first half of 2023, meaning the S&P 500 would decrease back near the October 12, 2022 closing price of 3,577.03 (5).

When helping clients through all market cycles we’ve developed the opinion that financial advisory has two major components. The first is having the right type of accounts. Most clients have a pre-tax employer sponsored account that will become a Moore F.S. Traditional IRA when they change jobs, attain the age of 59.5, or retire. We often encourage setting up post-tax accounts such as a Roth IRA as well. Moore F.S. will fine tune the ratios of various account types and determine if an IRA conversion makes sense. The second component is having the proper investments within your account. We favor more risk/potential reward within post-tax accounts and using them in the back half of retirement to give them the longest growth period. Regarding the investment allocation component, we feel strongly that this responsibility is best left to a fiduciary, and not simply a financial professional or insurance agent. As your fiduciary, we allocate your investments to your best interest. During volatile moments we stay grounded in our plan, and do not make emotional decisions that might reduce your growth. As our clients have called with thoughts of moving to money markets to avoid volatility, our focus was on the recovery of equities. Many investors become nervous when the market drops, despite this being the best time to be in the market, assuming a recovery will occur soon. In fact, many of the strongest days occur just after down periods, as disciplined investors take advantage of better buying opportunities in the market. With Moore F.S. you can rest assured that we will not panic and sell your equities in down market cycles. Moore F.S. generally will stay fully invested even in down periods to avoid mistakes commonly made by non-fiduciary agents or personal investors. Historically, missing the best days of the market can compound into major missed opportunities (6).

Looking forward to 2024, we feel strongly optimistic that the markets will continue their rally. Though past performance does not guarantee the future, we draw our conclusions from the stock market’s history. Following a 20% or greater move in stocks, the market was up 22 of 34 of the following years, equating in a positive stock market return the following year occurring 65% of the time (7). Since 1952, the S&P 500 has averaged a 7% gain during U.S. presidential election years (8). Since the creation of the S&P 500 there have been 23 election years, with a positive stock market performance year occurring in 19 of these periods, or 83% of the time (9). When a Democrat was in office and a new Democrat was elected, the total return for the year averaged 11.0%, and When a Democrat was in office and a Republican was elected, the total return for the year averaged 12.9% (10). As President Biden ends 2023 with a 39% approval rating, we view the chances of a change in presidency as slightly more probable than no change (11). Additionally, the labor market has been resilient and able to shake off interest rate increases. We believe a strong labor market coupled with lower energy prices (compared to a year ago) and falling interest rates create a high probability of further stock market increases. We feel as if the Securities and Exchange Commission will approve a Bitcoin exchange traded fund in the first half of 2024. As a result, we plan to include a 2-4% allocation to an iShares Bitcoin ETF sponsored by Blackrock.

Whether I’ve been your fiduciary for 10 years or 10 days, my goal is to provide you comfort in knowing that your and my goals are identically aligned. As I’ve said in the past, the down markets are just as hard on me as they are you. I’m a client of my own firm with investments rooted in the same stock market as you. In my opinion, without the market, you’ll be too conservative and must work a decade longer. With using the wrong advisor (or no advisor) you’ll be left wondering if your plan is adequate and tempted to make emotional decisions. With me coaching you to emotionally be ok with volatility and investing primarily in assets that have historically recovered after downturns, together we make a strong team. As the calendar turns to 2024, please keep in mind those that deserve to work with me as their fiduciary and refer them to me as needed. My goal remains to operate a cutting-edge platform with a small-town feel. I want to wish you and your family a great start to 2024 and empower you to set and reach your goals! As a reminder I’m only a phone call away if you need anything.

Tyler A. Moore

913-731-9105

TMoore@TMooreFS.com

“You expect good things from the New Year, you expect hope, but the New Year also has something to tell you: You create both the good things and the hope yourself, so don't expect anything, do it yourself, create it yourself, don't wait!” - Mehmet Murat Ildan

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history/
https://www.investors.com/news/economy/federal-reserve-key-inflation-rate-just-hit-2-percent-sp-500-rallies-as-rate-cut-odds-grow/#:~:text=The%20Federal%20Reserve%27s%20primary %20inflation,more%20than%20expected%20in%20November.
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/tmubmusd10y?countrycode=bx&mod=home-page
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history/
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jpmorgan-best-performing-15-stock-195504183.html#:~:text=Commenting%20on%20the%20stock%20market,Fed%20overtightens%20into%20weaker%20fundamentals.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2023/09/06/10-best-days-meme-bull-market-lance-roberts#:~:text=Over%20an%20investing%20period%20of,to%20long%2Dterm%20investment%20success.
https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2023/12/what-happens-after-a-20-up-year-in-the-stock-m arket/#:~:text=The%20stock%20market%20was%20up,%2B18.8%25%20in%20up%20years.
https://money.usnews.com/investing/articles/election-2024-how-stocks-perform-in-election-years
https://advisor.morganstanley.com/the-ernie-garcia-group/documents/field/e/er/ernie-garcia-group/S%26P%20500%20in%20Presidential%20Election%20years.pdf
https://advisor.morganstanley.com/the-ernie-garcia-group/documents/field/e/er/ernie-garcia-group/S%26P%20500%20in%20Presidential%20Election%20years.pdf
https://news.gallup.com/poll/547763/biden-ends-2023-job-approval.aspx

Moore Financial Solutions Third Quarter 2023

Tue, 17 Oct 2023 14:11:07 GMT

After the S&P 500 recorded an 8.3% return for Q2 in 2023, Q3 was a quick reminder of the downward trend equity investors have seen since the highest levels of January 2022. The Q3 2023 report highlights this quarter’s -3.65% S&P 500 move from 4,450.38 to 4,288.05 (1). With most Moore F.S. investors viewing their statements monthly, these last two months offer additional disappointment following a fruitful July, where the S&P 500 created a 3.11% return. We look forward to the quarterly reviews that highlight the many positive factors commonly on the horizon for U.S. equities, but for now, we are left detailing three major concerns within equity investing and a couple positives that may be looming. However, it remains my personal goal to not trade in and out of equities as these three issues could all hypothetically be resolved overnight, and Moore F.S. clients be left behind in the markets.

Since you’ve likely been leaning on the Moore F.S. quarterly reviews to get quarterly general information on what is setting the trend in your account, you’ve likely understood some basics. A major influx of cash into the economy from quantitative easing (oversimplified as the Federal Reserve adding money to the money supply since the Great Recession) as well as direct payments to citizens during the pandemic created high inflation. If left untamed, this inflationary risk could go on for a few more years and then burst into a very deep recession, or worse. Monetary policy tightening can occur by the Federal Reserve (which we will shorten in title to “the Fed”) through interest rate increases, quantitative tightening, and increases to bank’s reserve requirements. The Fed has elected to continue a firm trend of quantitative tightening and a variable trend of interest rate increases. In other words, they aim to be data dependent on the rate of interest rate hikes, and continually monitor if more interest rate increases are needed. Thus, the stock market hangs on every word the Fed presents, in hopes of identifying the short-term direction of stocks. In Q3 the Fed seemed to suggest they were ok with rates staying higher for longer given the solidity in U.S. job markets.

Up until this recent quarter, most of the Fed’s rate hikes have increased short term rates, while the long end of the yield curve was slow to react. The yield curve inverted, creating a strange occurrence of short-term yields being higher than long term yields. Moore F.S. bought more short-term debt in Q3 than any other debt. However, a major transformation occurred in Q3 2023, where longer-term interest rates suddenly increased as well. In Q3 2023, the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Note moved from 3.84% to 4.58% (2). We feel that the Fed is looking at the labor market to determine their success with interest rate increases, and they wish to see slight cracks in the labor market to ensure their battle against inflation is won. Moreover, we feel that interest rate movements are largely supply and demand driven, so until the bond market (bond investors) bought into the Fed’s determination to keep rates higher for longer, as the Fed has indicated, rates were too stubborn to move. We view the Fed’s conversation regarding accomplishing its goal as coming within 6-15 months based on these significant rate increases on the longer end of the curve. We see the Fed as a risk to the market, but also one of the greatest potential positive impacts to markets as well. The risk of the Fed’s overtightening could negatively impact markets, while the Fed signaling their work is done against inflation might be the driving factor to reach the previous 2022 market highs. Additionally, we believe the Fed will likely reduce rates within 12-18 months of their last interest rate increase, impacting stocks and bonds positively. Rate cuts occurred about eight months after the last round of rate increases, which ran from 2015-2018. These three rate cuts in 2019 were actions taken by the Fed in what the Fed referred to simply as a “mid-cycle adjustment” (3).

Another contributing factor to Q3’s lack of performance includes the unprecedented strike of the United Auto Workers union (UAW) against the big three auto makers, General Motors, Ford, and Stellantis. Wall Street weighed the risks of the domino effect that a long-lasting strike may have. “Our theoretical math suggests that labor cost increases should largely be manageable for the D-3. Further, a work stoppage should keep inventories low and support prices staying elevated, which should be a near term offset for higher wages,” RBC Capital Markets analyst Tom Narayan said in an investor note (4). Automakers represent a basic economic example of the ripples that can be sent through suppliers and local communities. Areas where UAW labor makes up a large portion of economic activity could quickly see nonessential businesses (e.g., restaurants and entertainment) close their doors. While a small supplier of windows used in the production of cars could be sitting on inventory and loans needing to be paid and could be losing money quickly. We view the risks related to the UAW strike as potentially more impactful than just lost wages in Detroit. “When GM gets a cold, the suppliers get pneumonia,” said Arthur Wheaton who is the director of labor studies at Cornell University’s School of Industrial and Labor Relations (5). Clearly, it is best to resolve the stoppages sooner than later for the broad economy. We look forward to a resolution that avoids long-term concerns and believe a deal will positively impact the broad market, continuing the theme that this issue could be resolved overnight, and we must remain allocated to equities when appropriate.

It couldn’t be a Moore F.S. quarterly review if we weren’t counting down the days until the next debt ceiling is reached, whether mentioned in our reviews or not. However, we feel each deadline becomes more difficult to reach a deal as the debt ceiling allowance ultimately is increased each time, it is currently above $33,500,000,000,000 ($33.5 trillion) (6). To put this into perspective, only three years prior this number was below $27 trillion. Another just in time deal was reached to keep the government operating until November 17th, 2023 (7). We find an uneasy feeling with the trajectory of deficit and the debt ceiling issues. Over the last year (since October 2022) the federal government’s spending exceeded its revenues by $1,524,166,099,656 ($1.52 trillion) (8). Additionally, we remain hopeful a solution can be reached before November 17th, giving the market some more breathing room. However, continually extending the debt ceiling is not fixing the underlying issue of spending, in the opinion of Moore F.S.

In summary, Q3 2023 is ending with a high level of uncertainty. Most notably this high level of uncertainty pertains to the direction of interest rates, which hinges on the results of the Fed’s fight against inflation. My goal of highlighting the main three concerns the stock market faces (the Fed, UAW strike and the debt ceiling) is not to sound pessimistic, but rather to point out that the market has already factored in these concerns. We are excited for when the issues subside, especially as it relates to the Fed signaling their work against inflation is done. I realize that investing and seeing your money go up, down, or sideways is an emotional part of your life. In the same respect, I also understand that if we simply move all your assets to Treasury bills, which do offer a nice yield on short term money, your long-term positions will not be able to keep up with and outpace inflation in the way stocks and bonds have historically. As a result, my overall goal with you is to work in a balanced manner and remind you of the volatility that comes with investing in stocks or bonds. While there are no guarantees, the stock market has the potential to build your wealth, if you give it time. Historically, $1,000 into the S&P 500 in 1994 (a 30-year investment approximately) would now be $16,255.77, which represents a 9.91% return each year with dividends. Factoring in inflation, you’d be holding $6,827.13 worth of 1994 dollars (9). Thus, I believe if investors are willing to ride the ups and downs of markets their patience may be rewarded. I thank you for our strong partnership towards your goals and the trust you place in me.

Tyler A. Moore

TMoore@TMooreFS.com

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history/
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/tmubmusd10y/charts?countrycode=bx&mod=mw_quote_advanced
https://www.forbes.com/advisor/investing/fed-funds-rate-history/
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/12/wall-street-sees-potential-upsides-of-uaw-autostrikes.html#:~:text=A%20UAW%20strike%20could%20%E2%80%9Cdrive,if%20tentative%20deals%20are%20reached.
https://www.automotivedive.com/news/uaw-strike-domino-effect-suppliers-gm-general-motors-ford-stellantislear/691542/
https://www.usdebtclock.org/index.html
https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/01/politics/congress-spending-bill-government-open/index.html
https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/americas-finance-guide/national-deficit/
https://www.officialdata.org/us/stocks/s-p-500/1926#inflation

Moore Financial Solutions Second Quarter 2023

Tue, 18 Jul 2023 20:52:32 GMT

After many quarters of muted performance, the U.S. stock market was able to record an 8.3% return in the second quarter of 2023. This move from 4,109.31 to 4,450.38 on the S&P 500 comes as welcomed news to U.S. stock market investors who have diligently waited for the storm of rising rates to pass ⁽¹⁾ . This artificial intelligence (A.I.) boom in technology stocks sent stock prices and earnings expectations higher. This quarter, we’re excited to review our take on positive performance to the technology sector regarding A.I., recent positioning by the Federal Reserve on interest rates, and the Moore F.S. strategy on positioning of assets within your account.

As the world rapidly evolves and mankind looks for the next big thing, it seems each quarter we can discuss a new global topic. Near a century and a half ago, electricity changed American homes and businesses meaningfully and opened the doors to the industrial production age. Looking back several decades, the creation of the internet increased business efficiency in ways few could truly fathom. Next on the horizon might just be artificial intelligence (A.I), which is a branch of computer science dealing with the simulation of intelligent behavior in computers and refers to the capability of a machine to imitate intelligent human behavior ⁽²⁾ . As a hypothetical, A.I. could design your kitchen remodel and give you infinite options to consider. A.I. is open 24/7 to immediately answer every question you ask about kitchen remodeling. Then, when you give the approval, it can have the complete product list in your virtual cart or that product list waiting for pickup at the local home improvement store. A.I. could create an immediate boost to the financials of some companies, in this case, the home improvement store. Goldman Sachs strategists estimate that generative AI could create productivity gains that result in S&P 500 companies expanding profit margins by about 4 percentage points in a decade following widespread adoption ⁽³⁾ . As a partial owner of S&P 500 companies, this might positively impact you financially. Many investors benefited from the iShares Global Tech ETF by Blackrock (IXN) which posted a 38.72% increase for the first half of the year, plus dividends ⁽⁴⁾ . It benefited significantly from Nvidia (now the third largest holding) surging 189% on increasing expectations of future microchip dependency partially fueled by A.I. implementation ⁽⁵⁾ . But A.I. likely comes at a huge risk, as many have discussed recently, due to increasing fears of the line between computers and human emotion being blurred. Although we won’t predict the timeframe or likelihood of implementation, we feel there is potential for companies to monetize A.I. in a safe and effective manner.

The Federal Reserve has clearly indicated their goal of 2% inflation and has used interest rate increases and balance sheet reduction as their primary means to accomplish this goal. These tools make the cost to borrow money high and money harder to come by, as there are fewer dollars floating around the economy. In May, the Federal Reserve raised rates by a quarter of a percent. A month later in June, they did not raise rates and voiced their intent to pause increases for that month. The S&P 500 responded nicely to this news, with a 6.5% increase for June. We believe Jerome Powell will utilize interest rate increases two to three more times, then, potentially back off within 18-24 months with a rate decrease. We use the inverted yield curve as the reasoning behind this. Currently, Moore F.S. can utilize a 1-year

U.S. treasury that yields about 5.25%. By contrast, a 20-year U.S. treasury only yields about 4.25%. Thus, the fixed income market is tipping its cap to rates likely not being as high a few years from now, in our opinion. Moore F.S. has adopted a strategy of buying short-term treasuries with a portion of the cash held in accounts, when appropriate for clients. Thus, instead of operating at a 1% weighting to money market funds, in many situations, we are reducing the cash to buy ultra short treasuries to take advantage of this yield opportunity. These ultra short treasuries are often purchased at a discount, $975 hypothetically, and typically mature at $1000 a few months later. We take seriously the task of making your money work hard for you and make every effort to create interest within your account. We welcome you back to the era of being able to receive decent interest on low-risk savings and believe inflation has created a higher need to ensure money isn’t sitting at a bank earning almost zero interest.

At Moore F.S. we strive to voice our goals and how we work with clients. Pridefully, we act as your fiduciary, meaning Tyler Moore will always manage your funds with what is your best interest, as opposed to simply setting up your funds and not providing on going management, as many firms will do. One very tough aspect of our strategy is riding out the down markets and resisting the urge to make changes. For example, in 2021-2022, we added Covid-19 recovery names such as Carnival Cruise Lines, Builders FirstSource Inc., Royal Caribbean, etc. as we anticipated vaccine development, herd immunity, and emotional tolerance of Covid would lead to a more normal way of life soon (we use this as a conversational example and not all clients hold these assets). Our strategy was to remain committed to the broad U.S. stock market while adding slivers of assets that we anticipated would perform well (because these assets fell farther and faster than the broad market generally speaking) in an effort to create better performance in your account. Though these assets have begun to perform as expected and many are posting nice returns, the lesson here has been patience, as these assets have been susceptible to pain from interest rate increases, banking concerns, etc. The conclusions that we draw here are that some of the best strategies may at first stumble out of the gate, and at times may seem as if we should be making changes. Investopedia details “Odd-Lot Theory” as a phenomenon where investors are chasing trends, instead of remaining committed to their plan ⁽⁶⁾ . In booming markets, they aggressively buy into the market just before the peak. More than once we’ve heard something like, “it’s going to go to the moon I can feel it,” regarding assets like Dogecoin, Gamestop, etc. just to see these assets fall significantly. Additionally, in a panic, they sell their shares just before the market bottoms out, effectively buying and selling at the two worst times. It is in these down-market cycles that we aim to make our biggest impact on your money by remaining committed to our plan and your long-term goals. Some of the biggest investment mistakes were made by panicking out of the market only to get back in after the recovery, a situation Moore F.S. intends to avoid. In our strategy we will guide you through down markets and intend to guide you to better market cycles. We believe down markets will occur 20% of years and with the S&P 500 sitting at 4,450.38 today we have recovered 958.8 points from the October 2022 lows (up 27.46% since the lows) but need to climb another 368.24 points (8.27%) to get back to the January 2022 highs ⁽⁷⁾ . We remain extremely optimistic on the direction of U.S. equities noting the reliance of U.S. companies on fuel prices. June 2022 offered U.S. diesel prices near $5.754 per gallon whereas this June, companies celebrate a $3.802 average cost per gallon of diesel ⁽⁸⁾ . Additionally, a lower fuel price adds to consumer discretionary income. Moreover, the Federal Reserve claims work is not done as it relates to increasing interest rates, but in our opinion, we’ve likely experienced the worst of interest rate rises and the remaining increases are priced into U.S. equities. We feel these two factors in combination with a strong consumer still riding the sugar high of pandemic cash, and a strong labor market will serve as a strong back drop to equity performance.

I’d like to thank you for the continued trust and faith you have in me as it relates to providing you with fiduciary investment management. One year ago, my quarterly review mentioned, “bear markets historically last 449 days when they precede a recession, compared to 198 when a recession does not occur” ⁽⁹⁾ . When markets have moments of sudden decrease it is tough on all of us, but we must remind ourselves not to be emotional and that, historically, broad equities will return to higher values. As a reminder, Charles Schwab will soon be the new custodian of all Moore F.S. accounts, and I look forward to answering any questions about this detail. Please refer to recent correspondence regarding this situation and feel free to call me directly with any questions you may have. I take pride in being your direct contact and remain committed to bringing you maximum efficiency through my platform, while providing the same personalized service you’ve come to know over the last eleven years.

Tyler A. Moore

913-731-9105

TMoore@TMooreFS.com

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history/
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/a/artificial-intelligence-ai.asp
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/wall-st-week-ahead-artificial-intelligence-gives-real-boost-us-stock-market-2023- 05-19/#:~:text=Goldman%20Sachs%20strategists%20estimate%20that,stock%20market%20facing%20numerous %20headwinds.
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/ixn
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/nvda?mod=search_symbol
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/o/oddlottheory.asp#:~:text=The%20odd%20lot%20theory%20is,to%20generate% 20odd%2Dlot%20sales.
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/spx?mod=home-page
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=EMD_EPD2DXL0_PTE_NUS_DPG&f=M
https://www.forbes.com/sites/sergeiklebnikov/2022/05/23/heres-how-long-it-takes-for-stocks-to-recover-from-bear- markets/?sh=11bf99252565 (AND) https://www.tmoorefinancialsolutions.com/moore-financial-solutions-second- quarter-2022

Moore Financial Solutions First Quarter 2023

Mon, 01 May 2023 20:55:53 GMT

The first quarter of 2023 provided an increase in the S&P 500 of 7.03% (1). This welcomed sight to equity investors occurred as the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Note moved from 3.88%, down to 3.471% (2). Without surprise, equities rallied, as corporations were eyeing a lower interest rate, as they prefer to operate with lower rates. Q1 of 2023 continued the trend of falling rates in the open market, while the

Federal Reserve continued to raise rates. In this quarterly review, we discuss the divergence of decreasing open market rates against the increasing Federal Funds rates. We will also highlight the sudden banking crisis (felt mostly by regional banks), and the strategies surrounding rapid increases in short term rates. The Federal Reserve has been aggressively increasing rates. As mentioned in previous Moore F.S. reviews, interest rate increases help determine how quickly the economy will grow. Low interest rates generally mean an easier path to growth but may lead to an overheating economy resulting in inflation. A higher interest rate will reduce inflation but will slow the economy. Currently, Jerome Powell has raised rates multiple times to slow inflation. In many areas, a higher rate has set in, especially in ultra short-term rates. However, the Federal Reserve has struggled to get a meaningful increase on longer dated rates. Furthermore, shorter term debts (a couple years or less) have seen massive increases in yield while longer term debts, such as 10 to 30 year obligations, have increased much less rapidly. In our opinion, investors seem willing to bet that interest rates will not rise significantly over the next few years. Since investors remain willing to purchase treasuries yielding 4.5%, this keeps an invisible cap on rates. Last month the one-year U.S. treasury yield briefly went above 5% (3). Suddenly portfolio managers and fiduciaries had the solution to low yields that we’ve been searching for over the last decade. Just as suddenly, the stock market has a competitor of investment attention, the bond market. The 10 year treasury now offers approximately 3.5% yield, while only one year ago in late March of 2022, it paid only approximately 2.4% (4). This undoubtedly takes away demand from the broad stock market. We began using individual U.S. treasuries in Q1 due to the sudden surge of short-term yield. This marks the first purchases of individual treasuries for Moore F.S. as we found no need to buy treasuries with the

previously extremely low yields. This recent addition allows Moore F.S. to purchase conservative government treasuries at a higher rate than bank certificates of deposit. We note two types of hypothetical investors regarding rates and inflation. First, inefficient investors two years ago (hypothetically) who purchased extremely low yield while their money was significantly eroded due to the high inflation over the next couple years. Secondly, investors experiencing high current short term treasury rates going into what may be cooling inflation. In other words, we aim to see a yield that is significantly higher than the inflation rate. Clearly Moore F.S. intends to be in the second group and although we are not giving the “all clear” on the risk of rising rates, we feel much better at these levels than we did a year ago. As your fiduciary we aim to reduce our exposure to bonds/treasuries while rates rise and own bonds/treasuries in flat or falling interest rate environments.

If you stay up to date on Moore Financial Solutions quarterly reviews, you remember reading about Sam Bankman-Fried (S.B.F. as he is often called) and his real-life story of how not to operate a hedge fund, or any business for that matter. We recently discussed our stance on how S.B.F. and his operations were not connected to broad equity investments. This quarter the latest concern is Silicon Valley Bank (SVB). SVB was the 16th largest bank in the United States with assets of $209 Billion in December (5). Like any bank SVB took in deposits of customers and essentially drove revenue on those deposits in one of two ways; lend out deposited money for a higher rate or buy securities that offer a higher rate than the rate they pay on deposits. Examiners were able to determine the main detriment of the business was the over exposure to U.S. treasuries, like the 10-year treasury that we previously mentioned (6). Let’s dive into the fundamentals of a treasury note. A 10-year treasury note hypothetically issued today pays around 3.471% as discussed above. This investment is typically purchased for $1000, and 10 years later will mature, returning the investor’s $1,000, and each year along the way will pay interest of $34.71. Bonds contain financial risk in two major ways: inflation risk- the potential that the interest rate of 3.471% will lose purchasing power to inflation, and interest rate risk- a reduction in price of the bond due to a rising interest rate environment. Since everyone knew interest rates were rising (except this bank somehow), a limited amount was allocated to bonds in most cases. For example, Moore F.S. recently discussed that we trimmed bond positions July 14th of 2022 to let the “storm” of rising rates pass and buy back into bonds at a lower price. Furthermore, as interest rates were rising, the bonds that SVB purchased for $1000 were losing value. Yes, they would eventually mature 10 years later at $1,000 but SVB had to sell bonds to meet other obligations, and this led to a $1.8 Billion loss (7). The Sub-Prime Mortgage Crisis of 2008 taught us to understand that banks are closely related, and a “run on the banks” can cause a contagion effect. Thus, immediate action is needed. This problem is further complicated by the reaction of individuals and businesses to make a “run on the bank” and desperately/rapidly remove their deposits from the bank. To meet withdraw requests, SVB, in this case, needed to sell notes/bonds at a loss. For each $1,000 they invested in notes they only received $970 from the sale of the note, hypothetically. The more withdraw requests that came through, the more notes were sold at a loss, and this uncontrolled spiral led to the collapse of what was the 16th largest bank in the U.S. just 100 days prior. On March 26th, 2023, First Citizens Bank bought the majority of SVB deposits and stepped in to calm people’s fears (8). Markets have reacted positively, and although a few more banks have fallen, the threat of widespread bank failures seems limited. Moore F.S. aims to add a weighting to the financial sector as bank’s balance sheets remain healthy, and in our opinion, rates will remain high enough to positively impact profits. We believe most clients need to be in the stock market and willing to tolerate the volatility that comes with it. There are many things that can knock the market down; SBF, SVB, etc. and there will always be new problems coming, but we are going to continue to be disciplined in markets. Much like your home, there are always going to be issues arising, but tackling them as they come in is a much better strategy than selling your home. Likewise, volatility in markets doesn’t mean we should sell.

In our discussions with clients, we spend a lot of time strategizing stocks because ultimately more strategy goes into a stock allocation than a bond allocation. Additionally, for many clients with a long enough time horizon, a full stock allocation remains prudent. However, bonds are making a comeback, and in some cases very rapidly. The rates that Moore F.S. can offer through holdings of short-term treasuries have jumped considerably. For example, two years ago (March 28th, 2021) the U.S. 1 Year Treasury Bill offered a less than desirable yield of .065% (9). The current yield to close the quarter now stands over 72 times higher at 4.689% . Furthermore, in those same two years the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Note yield only saw an approximate doubling from 1.72% to 3.471% (10). In the opinion of Moore F.S. we believe this offers an incredible opportunity for a higher yield than bank savings, while continuing to offer a conservative strategy. In our opinion, every interest rate tick higher by short-term treasuries creates more reason to avoid rushing to pay down debts that were issued in a very low interest rate environment. Please call if you’d like to discuss these strategies as we are getting many of these inquiries.

Moore F.S. portfolios are created uniquely and individualized for every client. I not only take pride in this style of management, but I think this is truly the only opportunity to act as a fiduciary in managing the account. In the last six months I have seen an alarming rate of clients just following broadly based advice without identifying what is optimal for their individual situation. Luckily, these clients find better efficiency when they come to Moore F.S. I just want to take a moment to encourage you to ask questions and feel free to run strategies by me. Financial advisory is like health care, there may be some rules to live by that apply to most everyone, but the greatest treatment will always be individualized.

Tyler A. Moore

913-731-9105

TMoore@TMooreFS.com

1. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history/

2. https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/tmubmusd10y?countrycode=bx&mod=home-page

3. https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US1Y

4. https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/tmubmusd10y?countrycode=bx&mod=home-page

5. https://www.investopedia.com/what-happened-to-silicon-valley-bank-7368676

6. https://www.investopedia.com/what-happened-to-silicon-valley-bank-7368676

7. https://www.investopedia.com/what-happened-to-silicon-valley-bank-7368676

8. https://www.investopedia.com/what-happened-to-silicon-valley-bank-7368676

9. https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US1Y

10. https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/tmubmusd10y?countrycode=bx&mod=home-page

11. https://www.raymondjames.com/soundwealthmanagement/pdfs/sbbi-1926.pdf

12. https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/tlt

13. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD/history/

14. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US

This material has been prepared for information and educational purposes and should not be construed as a solicitation for the purchase or sell of any investment. The content is developed from sources believed to be reliable. This information is not intended to be investment, legal or tax advice. Investing involves risk, including the loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in a period of declining values. Investment advisory services offered by duly registered individuals on behalf of Creativeone Wealth, LLC a Registered Investment Adviser. Creativeone Wealth, LLC and Moore Financial Solutions are unaffiliated entities.

Moore Financial Solutions Fourth Quarter 2022

Fri, 13 Jan 2023 17:45:51 GMT

Q4 of 2022 offered an increase in the S&P 500 of 7.08%, as investors’ portfolios regained a portion of the losses brought on by a down year (1). During this most recent quarter, the S&P 500 pushed higher, before seeing a retreat to the closing price of 3,839.50 (2). We remain optimistic that market sentiment shows the continued opportunity and belief that this market downturn will end, and investors will be back to making money in stocks. In the opinion of Moore Financial Solutions, the sharp movement upward from the quarter’s opening price of 3,585.62 to 4,080.11 (13.79% increase) in the first two months of Q4 show investors’ belief that we will get past this downturn, and eventually return to all time market highs (3). As a point of reference, the S&P 500 briefly touched 4,797.70 in January, which represents the highest level of the year (4). This high point in the market is 24.96% above the closing price of 2022 (5). The year ended with a -19.44% return for the S&P 500, before factoring in dividends (6). This resulted in the second down year in the last decade, after factoring in dividends (7). One decade ago, the S&P 500 opened the year for 2013 at 1,462.42 and has moved up 163% (plus paid an approximate 1.5% dividend each year) (8). We reference this decade of movement as a reminder that if you are willing to tolerate the ups and downs of the market, it has historically generated returns.

The Moore F.S. management philosophy remains the same; own a variety of diversified stocks touching on a variety of market capitalizations. For clients closer to their goals, or withdrawing from their portfolio, bonds become appropriate to ease the volatility of the portfolio. Focusing mainly on clients with long time horizons (funds invested for 10+ years), we do not believe bonds should be used. Many other firms that you see advertised include bonds in their portfolios, regardless of a long time horizon. We believe this is because they have a weaker relationship with their clients and feel the need to reduce volatility in a portfolio. By contrast, we aim to have a very strong relationship with our clients and educate them that stocks will move in both directions, and that they should plan to buy and hold for the long term. By eliminating bonds in these portfolios, we aim to buy and hold quality stocks which historically generate approximately double the return of bonds (9). Furthermore, in 2022 bonds did not offer the cushion that these large firms had hoped for. We believe this can be seen by examining the move of the iShares 20+ year treasury bond ETF (TLT), which moved from $148.19 per share to $99.56 per share in 2022, a reduction of 32.82% (10). Instead of using bonds that offer little upside potential, we aim to continue to use dividend paying stocks and value stocks, as opposed to purely growth stocks. In July, we moved $207,165.53 out of bonds as the Federal Reserve seemed determined to increase interest rates. Shortly after this move interest rates increased, and bonds decreased in price. These funds were later moved back into bonds to take advantage of the interest rate decrease on the horizon. As a reminder, bonds lose value as interest rates rise and gain value as interest rates decrease. At Moore F.S. we take pride in our money management style and continue to manage every account on an individual and personalized basis. We remain committed to always acting in your best interest while managing your money as an un-biased fiduciary.

A major headline of Q4 included Sam Bankman-Fried and his titanic fall from an estimated worth of $26.5 billion, to being one of the most wanted white collar criminals in history. You likely have some knowledge of SBF, but we would like to highlight this event and lightly touch on bitcoin as it relates to your portfolio, or rather we should say how it does not relate to your portfolio. SBF is known not just for his funny hairdo, but for being the founder of FTX. You may have first noticed FTX by watching Major League Baseball, as the umpires wore it on their uniforms as a method of advertising. The MLB didn’t forecast that they were advertising a firm that was diverting client money into a completely different hedge fund to help pay its debts and create investments to the tune of $10 billion. Furthermore, bitcoin’s price moved down 15.02% in Q4 and is down 74.33% from November 2021 highs (11). We reference the SBF story as it is major news within Q4, and we reference bitcoin prices as a reminder that there is no need to reinvent the wheel in finding alternatives to stock investments, in our opinion. In 2021 the Moore F.S. phone would ring a couple times a week with questions regarding investing in bitcoin, and how this could be done on our platform. We are proud to say that we have never put a penny of investor money into cryptocurrencies and have no intention to. You’re likely not surprised that we haven’t received many questions regarding cryptos recently. Lastly, we think it is worth stating that all Moore F.S. investor funds are held at TD Ameritrade, which we feel is the best in the business regarding custodian of assets.

A new year brings new challenges and new goals. We think 2023 will be a fruitful year for stocks if a few things can happen. Inflation data needs to show that Federal Reserve interest rate increases are having the desired effect in cooling the economy. As a reminder, an overheating economy creates a lack of price stability. We remain optimistic that the Federal Reserve will not overtighten financial conditions too quickly or too much. Earnings for corporations will need to avoid a dramatic decrease. Clearly, earnings may fall as a result of interest rate increases, as buyers electing to finance large purchases (homes, cars, etc.) can buy less units for the same monthly payment. For example, 30-year mortgage rates moved up approximately 3% from ~3.5% to ~6.5% throughout 2022 (12). This means a $250,000 home’s monthly payment moved up $457.56 from $1,122.61 to $1,580.17. This change erodes the buyer’s discretionary income for other items and will likely have an impact on their spending. To this point Moore F.S. aims to increase portfolio holdings of financials as their overall margins should improve. We have been cautious of increasing our weighting into financials because an inverted yield curve tends to not be favorable to the banking industry. An inverted yield curve means short term rates are higher than long term rates despite a long term loan being more impacted by many years of inflation. We encourage you not to overpay loans that have an interest rate of less than 5% as these funds could be better directed somewhere else, in our opinion. If you are actively overpaying loans of less than 5%, please reach out to us to discuss potentially more favorable alternatives. Keep in mind, if your mortgage payment is $1,000 per month, for example, after many years of inflation, that $1,000 per month may feel more like $750 per month one day. Additionally, by overpaying your loan you lose that liquidity, and if a financial emergency occurs you do not have that overpayment to draw back out, where you could access an investment account in an emergency. In our opinion, this is one of the few times where you can get a better rate and take a more conservative approach, conservative in terms of keeping your liquidity. It is worth stating that the avoidance of interest by overpaying is a sure thing in most cases, where the returns an investment could offer are generally not guaranteed, so this is worth taking into consideration.

I want to personally take this time to wish you and your family all the best in 2023. Every account I manage represents someone’s goals and freedom to make their life better. 2022 was equally as tough on me as it was for you as the investor. Although I try hard to educate you that these years will happen, it doesn’t make them much easier to endure. There are things you can do to take advantage of the recent downturn in the markets. If you still have a medium or long time horizon you can get money into the stock market while it offers a better entry price than it did for most of last year. If you are withdrawing it may be a great opportunity to challenge yourself to decrease the withdraw amount. The stock market is like electricity within your home, when used correctly, it enhances our everyday lives. But, if used improperly, it can harm us. In my opinion, for investors with the willingness to tolerate the volatility of stocks, there is no better way to create passive income and wealth. It is with great pride that I continue to be your fiduciary and I welcome all your questions and concerns, even if it does not directly relate to the accounts I manage. My main goal is to make your life better by being in it, and I thank you for your continued trust and letting me manage your goals as your independent fiduciary.

Moore Financial Solutions Third Quarter 2022

Mon, 24 Oct 2022 20:06:59 GMT

The third quarter of 2022 saw a further decrease in equity prices, as investors wrestled with the thought of an impending recession. We believe the primary topic leading to equity selling continues to be policy action by the Federal Reserve to reduce inflation. The S&P 500 fell another 6.27% in Q3, continuing a trend of losing quarters for 2022 (1). This movement in equity prices may likely challenge the willingness to hold tight in down markets, but we remind Moore Financial Solutions clients of the patience required when investing in equities. This quarterly review will highlight strategies in down market cycles, P/E ratios of equities, and include a review of Federal Reserve Policy changes made in Q3 of 2022.

Our clients find financial stability in periods of higher equity (stock) prices and often find themselves more willing to use funds for travel or planned home renovation, for example. By contrast, lower equity prices often create a commitment to be more disciplined with an investment plan. We encourage our clients to contribute (or increase contributions) to their investment accounts in these lower market cycles to prepare for a potential recovery in equities. 2022 has forced Moore F.S. to quickly change from a high equity price strategy to a sudden bear market strategy. Generally, this includes rebalancing into equities when appropriate, as well as an overall increased willingness to create new equity positions while markets are low. For many clients, we are looking to convert pretax money into post-tax accounts, when appropriate. Furthermore, we aim to increase allocations to small cap equities when appropriate. It is our opinion that small cap equities will rebound more sharply than large and medium sized companies. Our small cap strategy can only partially be put to work as we remain cautious of the impact higher interest rates can have on small companies who often operate on a more leveraged (debt heavy) balance sheet.

A top goal of Moore F.S. continues to be the education of investing principles. This quarter we highlight changes for 2022 in the P/E Ratios. Most likely you haven’t heard of P/E Ratios, but their simple structure can give equity investors a detailed look into market cycles. First off, what is a P/E ratio? A P/E ratio measures a stock’s current price, divided by its earnings per share (2). For example, AT&T’s current price per share of $15.56, divided by its annual earnings per share of $2.71, equates to a P/E ratio of approximately 5.74. In other words, when investors buy AT&T, they could assume it would take 5.74 years to recoup their $15.56. We use P/E ratios to gauge where the market is in terms of overbought or oversold. To begin the year, the S&P 500 had a forward-looking P/E ratio of 23.11 (3). Investors were purchasing the S&P 500 with the understanding that based on the current rate of earnings they are offering up 23.11 years of earnings to make the purchase. By contrast, the current (September 30th, 2022) P/E ratio of the S&P 500 is 18.12. In the opinion of Moore F.S., P/E ratios are a simple tool to evaluate investor sentiment towards equities and determine what level of risk pertains to investing in equities. This gauge is not perfect and does not determine the direction of equities. When the S&P 500 is near a 23.11 P/E ratio, we determine investors are more willing to accept paying a higher price for equities for a variety of factors. For example, the real return on bond fund yields (after inflation) being less than exciting. The average modern era P/E ratio of the S&P 500 is 19.6, while the average P/E ratio of the last ten years is 26.6 (4). We sense investors continued to buy stocks when the P/E ratio was above its average in expectation that earnings would increase. Furthermore, we forecast a gradual move back to a 20 P/E over the course of 18-24 months. In talking with clients, we have stated that we are increasing our exposure to equities, especially for younger, risk tolerant clients. We continue to believe that by looking at a variety of factors, including the drop in P/E ratio below the average, stocks offer an ideal entry point. It is certainly possible stocks could fall more before a recovery occurs. With equities more favorable now than to begin the year (in terms of P/E ratios) we remain optimistic. We believe equities will rebound to a more average P/E ratio, and we remain hopeful the earnings associated with equities will continue to increase, and ultimately not see a recession. In the most basic form, when you buy stocks, you are paying up front for future earnings. It is important to remember that in the short term, equities can be volatile, but historically they offer a very sound opportunity to create wealth and according to P/E ratios, potentially now more so than to begin the year.

The Federal Reserve offered policy changes during Q3 of 2022, as many predicted. On September 21, 2022, the Federal Reserve increased benchmark interest rates by .75%, representing another large and meaningful move. This increase took the Fed funds rate range to 3-3.25%. This represents the most aggressive Fed tightening since the Federal Reserve began using the overnight funds rate as its primary policy tool in 1990. In 1994 the Fed hiked a total of 2.25 percentage points. We later found out the Fed would begin cutting rates by July of the following year (5). We believe Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has surprised very few with this large rate increase. Moore F.S. sold all positions of iShares U.S. Treasury Bond ETF (GOVT) on July 14th, 2022, in preparation for the increases of rates. In cases that are appropriate for clients, we anticipate moving back into this and other bond positions in the 4th quarter of 2022. The iShares U.S. Treasury Bond ETF continued to move approximately 4.6% lower between July 14th and the end of Q3 (6). Bonds tend to offer an inverse movement with interest rates, as interest rates go up the value of bond funds go down. This downward movement in the value of bond funds as interest rates have risen, continues to negatively impact portfolios that hold bonds. Though we are not predicting the Fed to repeat their pattern of reducing rates the year following rate increases (as we mentioned above) this action would be a tailwind for bond funds in 2023, thus we aim to layer back into bond funds.

The challenge of volatile equity markets remains an emotional experience. I urge my clients to always respect the power of what stock markets really are, an emotional willingness to put money to work into companies that offer long-term growth. Without going into too great of detail, we live in an environment where algorithms move stock markets and can move markets very quickly. In my opinion, this gives way to environments where the S&P 500 can move up 13.7% in the first half of the quarter (June 30th closing price of 3,785.38 to August 16th closing price of 4,305.20 (7)) and suddenly make a 50% recovery for the year. I can assume that somewhere out there an investor decided on June 30th they have had enough of the market downturn and decided to move to a money market account, only to miss out on the next approximately 45 days. 45 days later (lets assume) that same guy or gal had a bad case of “fear of missing out” and reinvested into equities, only to experience the move lower over the next half of a quarter. Of course, this is purely hypothetical, but I use this example to remind you that my job is not only to act as a fiduciary, but also to keep us grounded in our plan. In many cases we must use equities in your plan to be able to hit long-term growth goals. Otherwise, we will see your purchasing power be eroded significantly by inflation. I don’t know when the bear market will be over, and I don’t want to begin to make that prediction. Rather, I’d like to voice my continued commitment to buying and holding for the long term. I believe you and I continue to make a great team and we will weather this storm, and likely many more in the future.

Moore Financial Solutions Second Quarter 2022

Fri, 08 Jul 2022 16:17:27 GMT

The second quarter of 2022 reminded investors that volatility remains a function of long-term investing, as the broad stock market attempted to identify if the United States is headed into recession. As the S&P 500 posted another losing quarter, falling 16.45%, the market seemed to be pricing in a recession (1). The Federal Reserve moved interest rates higher to ease inflation while not showing much remorse for how financial markets were impacted. The Federal Reserve appears to be willing to slow the economy to avoid long term detrimental inflation. This Moore Financial Solutions quarterly review will detail the Federal Reserve’s actions, interest rate function/strategy, and how we aim to navigate the uncertainty moving forward. As I personally receive feedback from clients and aim to adjust to their needs, I am specifically tailoring this review to be more understandable to the client who holds less knowledge of financial markets/investment management.

By the time you reached high school, you likely learned that your life will be most comfortable when you set a budget and stick to it. You may budget $500 per month for your family to spend at the grocery store, and for years that number worked. Suddenly, that same $500 no longer allows you to enjoy the quality of foods you’ve grown used to. As you plan meals prior to going to the store you find it hard to determine which recipes include a good balance of nutrients and cost because prices are changing so rapidly. In addition, some items have increased in cost much more rapidly than alternatives, leaving you less confident in which to select. Comparatively, companies are making many of the same tough decisions, with little clarity on which direction prices are heading. These small choices that families are presented with, draw comparison to massive multimillion dollar long-term decisions corporations are making. These characteristics lead to uncertainty within both your family and corporations. You may ask, “why do I care about corporations, I hear their greed is the problem”? The answer is simple: You own the corporations! You own them in your accounts managed by Moore F.S., through your 401k, etc.

Clearly, when prices are increasing, this makes it tough for both large corporations and everyday families. Additionally, price instability is a huge concern and makes financial planning very challenging. We plan to detail how price instability occurs and the potential course of action to mitigate it.

Covid-19 sent shock waves through the system and created an imbalance to many individuals. Those in the service/hospitality industry were struggling to make ends meet, while those in the I.T. industry were saving money working from home. As it was difficult to determine quickly who needed help the most, direct payments went out to most Americans. These direct payments were a life support to some, while simply adding to the savings accounts of those who needed the payments less. In addition, an estimated

$2 Trillion in emergency aid was provided through the C.A.R.E.S. act and other emergency stimulus (2). As this emergency package of money seemed to be air-dropped into Americans’ laps, they continued to build their savings and pay down debt, a common strategy during times of fear/uncertainty. Months down the road the consumer strengthened, and Covid-19 appeared to be another challenge that we as Americans could overcome. Vaccines came out, Americans became confident in their natural immunities post-infection, and antivirals were released. Suddenly people felt like they got their groove back. As the now healthy consumer bounced back from living under their rock, they felt comfortable spending again, and with interest rates at near record lows, they were able to stretch their dollar when they elected to finance larger purchases. This large amount of money, competing for a limited amount of goods, quickly led to inflation. Inflation increased further with record gas prices and increased labor costs, as many pushed for a higher minimum wage. A higher minimum wage generally moves the majority of wages higher. Inflation is like a natural gas leak in your home, it needs fixed immediately to not lead to a much worse explosion (within the economy). Suddenly, a Federal Reserve that approximately 15 years ago was decreasing interest rates to put the economy on a steroid, is tasked with increasing interest rates. In addition to increasing rates to slow the economy, the Federal Reserve is reducing their balance sheet.

This effectively pulls money out of the economy, leading to less overall supply of money within the economy. The Federal Reserve can sell treasuries and similar units to pull money out of the economy. As monetary policy becomes more restrictive, individuals and corporations become more selective on where money is spent. This short-term (hopefully) slowing of the economy allows prices to stabilize.

Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve Chair, has voiced a commitment to do whatever it takes to control inflation and has said the bigger risk is to fail to restore price stability (3). As interest rates rise and monetary policy becomes more restrictive, the stock market is taking a step back with the S&P 500’s first 6 months of 2022 returning negative 20.58% prior to dividends (4). The last 3 years the S&P 500 has returned 31.49%, 18.40% and 28.71 respectively, for years 2019-2021 (5).

Most clients want to know, “when will the pain end and what will make it end?” This answer is complex and regarded as difficult to answer, in our opinion. We remain optimistic that Jerome Powell is transparent and committed to his goal to do whatever it takes to beat inflation (6). This is far from an immediate win for the economy though, given his main tool to fight inflation is tighter monetary policy, which may involve a slowing of the economy. We feel additional optimism is drawn from the Federal Reserve being aggressive in the recent .75% interest rate increases, as opposed to a .25% increase, for example. We believe the Federal Reserve is having to be so aggressive because they were late to begin increasing rates, as they admit to some degree, they got it wrong that inflation was not just transitory (7). It is hard to determine when the pain of this bear market will end, as it seems to hinge on whether the United States will go into a recession, which hinges on if the Federal Reserve will tighten monetary policy enough to tamp down inflation without overshooting and sending the economy into unnecessary downturn. A recent Forbes article suggests bear markets historically last 449 days when they precede a recession, compared to 198 when a recession does not occur (8). In our opinion, if inflation readings can begin to show that Federal Reserve policy is having the desired effect, markets will begin to recover. Moreover, a Jerome Powell win regarding the velocity and trajectory of interest rate changes may keep the economy out of recession.

We understand that market volatility naturally creates discomfort and concern. It serves as a reminder that the stock market is not a money tree, and one must maintain an understanding of volatility at times. In 2022, we aim to implement strategy regarding conversions from IRAs to Roth IRAs for clients in which it is appropriate. Additionally, we are enacting a reallocation strategy from bonds to stocks, when appropriate. Contributing during lower markets remains a key priority to getting what you deserve once stock markets recover. We see current market contributions like piers driven the deepest in the construction of a bridge. While these piers take the most effort, they in turn bear the most weight. Comparatively, it may seem difficult to continue to contribute now but these contributions stand to make the most progress once markets recover.

I continue to manage each account individually and strive to put the upmost strategy and effort into getting you what you deserve. This month marks my 10th year in the industry, and I want to thank you for being a valued client of my firm. Whether I’ve been working with you for 10 years or 10 days, my goal is to make your investment experience comfortable in all market conditions. Some years my best influence on your money may be to lose less than the broad market by remaining diversified and not blindly following risks. As we are halfway through this year, only time will tell how it will end up. I’m proud to say that while some investment firms are trying to find a reason to put you into a new product, my goal is to always act in your best interests. It is with great pride to act as your fiduciary and navigate challenges together.

Moore Financial Solutions First Quarter 2022

Wed, 13 Apr 2022 21:55:02 GMT

A volatile start to 2022 sent the S&P 500 4.95% lower in the first quarter (1). This downturn seems based on the Russian invasion of Ukraine and Federal Reserve interest rate increases, among other factors. In our most recent quarterly review, we projected “2022 might remind equity investors that, in order to get long-term returns, one must accept near-term volatility,” with the idea that earnings growth could slow. We continue to urge equity investors to keep a long-term perspective, even on short-term movements in the market. Q1 ’22 was particularly harder than usual on a balanced portfolio (a portfolio of stocks/bonds instead of a fully stock portfolio) due to interest rates increasing. Bonds historically offer a more conservative asset during stock market decreases, often having positive growth years when stocks are down (2). Generally, bond funds lose share price when interest rates rise. This can be illustrated by the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond exchange traded fund (ticker symbol TLT) decreasing by 10.87%, as it moved from 148.19/share to 132.08/share in Q1 ’22 (3). This quarterly review aims to highlight the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Federal Reserve interest rate increases, oil price increases, and the Moore F.S. approach to navigating markets.

On February 24th Russia invaded the neighboring country of Ukraine (4). This forecasted action confirmed the fears of many and sent shockwaves through equity markets. The S&P 500 declined 4.16% in the five trading days leading up to and including February 24th, representing most of the Q1 declines (5). As this invasion continued, economic impacts were felt in addition to the tragedy in Ukraine. On March 8th, 2022, President Biden signed an executive order to ban the import of Russian oil, liquified natural gas and coal to the United States (6). Russian oil accounts for less than 2% of the United States oil supply, making this an option to the United States. This issue is not as simple in the European Nations where approximately half import most of their oil, and of that imported oil, an average of 20% comes from Russia (7). We view the economic impacts of this crisis in a more minimal lens compared to the humanitarian factor. As your trusted fiduciary though, we must include this in our strategies conversation. More conversation of how oil price increases may impact United States inflation will follow in this review.

In Q1 of 2022 the Federal Reserve continued to position interest rates higher by raising rates. Additionally, free markets positioned interest rates much higher, as global investors prepared for these well-hinted interest rate increases. In Q1 the 10-year United States Treasury moved higher, as predicted in our last quarterly review. The 10-year United States Treasury closed 2021 at 1.514% and moved .825% higher within Q1 ‘22 to end at 2.339% (8). This increase, in our opinion, symbolizes the United States becoming stronger, and no longer needing the “life support” of near 0% interest rates. In many cases these 0% interest rates led to a negative real interest rate, as interest rates were lower than inflation. This created a situation where borrowing could easily occur to finance purchases, and in many cases, we believe, made more sense than paying out of pocket. While the economy is strong, we think it is necessary to increase rates for two reasons; to not let the economy overheat, potentially leading to long term sustained inflation, and to recreate an emergency cushion if interest rates need to be further reduced. Our view is long-term low rates allowed United States and global consumers to purchase more, as their overall financed payments stayed low. For example, a nicer vehicle can be purchased within a $500 monthly budget at 3% interest rates compared to 5% interest rates. In April 2020, after the pandemic outset, the nations’ personal saving rate (the percentage of overall disposable income that goes into savings each month) jumped fourfold from its February 2020 level to 34% (9). In our opinion,

this accomplishment made low interest rates less necessary. We believe this meant the Federal Reserve could tighten monetary policy and raise interest rates. Moreover, as consumers competed for a limited supply of goods with cheap money, inflation increased. We believe that with inflation taking off, the Federal Reserve should tighten. The Federal Reserve aims to guide the economy into a “soft landing”, instead of overshooting within interest rate policy increases. Moore F.S. sold all holdings of iShares Investment Grade Corporate Bond Fund ETF (ticker symbol LQD) on March 22nd, 2022, in preparation for a rise in interest rates which would decrease the share price of bond funds. We think bonds continue to play a role in portfolios when appropriate. In our opinion, investors with a long-time horizon and a tolerance for risk should not be positioned in bonds especially as equities now offer a lower entry point.

We believe that in this global economy of 2022, as fuel prices surge, the cost increases will pass to consumers. As consumers shoulder these increased costs, they’ll reduce savings rates and likely reduce gross domestic product numbers. In Q1 2022 President Biden announced a plan to use 1 million barrels of oil per day from the United States strategic petroleum reserve. This effort to increase supply in hopes to not harm demand (keep prices low so consumers continue to get out and spend money) marks the largest per day withdraw of the S.P.R. in history. 1 million barrels per day represents approximately 5% of the oil consumed in the United States each day. Oil futures for prices within 2022 decreased while oil futures for 2023 increased in price. This may be markets assuming the S.P.R. will be replenished sometime in 2023. We believe United States oil companies are attempting to learn from their mistakes in the previous cycle. In the last cycle of oil price spikes, oil well development commenced. This expansion of drilling on United States soil was costly, and oil prices needed to stay high for many years to make these projects worthwhile. As artificial extraction, like fracking, increased production in previously less fertile areas, it allowed the United States to bring more oil to market, driving the price lower. As these prices fell, oil revenues for many producers fell sharply too, and some of these companies soon after were out of business. This current cycle shows United States energy companies not as eager to expand, as they potentially aim to learn from their mistakes. Moore Financial Solutions holds energy stocks commonly through the S&P500, as energy is a sector of the broadly diversified S&P500 exchange traded fund, which continues to be our largest holding. We wish to only be sector- weighted into energy and fear adding larger holdings of energy could be harmed in the potential move away from fossil fuels. In our view, energy price increases leaving consumers with less discretionary income has replaced Covid-19 as one of the leading risks to our economy/markets.

When your market value fluctuates there is an emotional impact that is felt, to this there is no doubt. I’m right alongside of you in these times, and I care about your account value with a similar intensity that you do. For almost ten years now I’ve been saying, “I wish the market just went straight up.” My goal is to have trained all my clients that a straight up market is never going to happen, and if it feels like it is happening of recent you might be nearing the end of that cycle. Equities (stocks) are continually being repriced as investors analyze a company’s ability to generate earnings over many years to follow. Our strategy is to primarily hold investments that we feel will bounce back, like a well-diversified S&P500 exchange traded fund as an example. To echo last quarter’s review, we believe trying to time a downturn and move between various investments may be costly, and we aim to hold tight in equities, when applicable. We’d aim to remind clients that ownership of stock is designed to be a long-term hedge against inflation and for most long-term investors it is a necessary means to provide for a future goal. I’m always eager to discuss changing goals or answer any questions you may have. In addition, I am committed to your goals, and it continues to be with great pride and responsibility that I am your fiduciary.

Moore Financial Solutions Fourth Quarter 2021

Thu, 13 Jan 2022 16:50:02 GMT

Quarter four of 2021 provided the best quarterly gain for the year, sending the S&P 500 10.65% higher (Yahoo Finance, 2022). This productive quarter allowed the S&P 500 to move higher in all four quarters within 2021 (Yahoo Finance, 2022). The current low interest rate environment, coupled with a projected gradual increase in rates, continued the “only game in town” theme for stocks, confirming our theory stated in the last Moore Financial Solutions quarterly review. Moore F.S. continued to hold high quality stocks for clients in situations that would allow, and we remain optimistic on the longer-term outlook of United States equities. Q4 offered a slight increase to interest rates, as the 10-Year U.S. treasury moved from 1.487% to 1.51% (MarketWatch, 2022). This modest move higher offered the benefits of higher rates, without the growing pains associated with rapid increases in rates. We consider higher rates a benefit to holders of fixed income in the long-term. This quarterly review will detail how interest rates are determined and how that plays a role within your investment goals. Additionally, we’ll review Federal Reserve policy, Moore F.S. holdings and our 2022 outlook.

We continue to pay significant attention to interest rates. The companies Moore F.S. invests in have a significant ability to make advances when interest rates are low. Just like your household, companies can refinance or make capital improvements at a lower interest rate, reducing the overall cost of these advancements. We would go as far as to say that it may be inefficient for these companies to pay “out of pocket” to make an investment instead of finance the improvement, given the relationship between interest rates and inflation. With interest rates so low globally, it becomes hard for portfolio managers to find safe, low risk income. Short term portfolios may look to the 10-Year treasury or similar investments to provide safe, low risk income. When significant demand is seen at auction for the 10-Year treasury, the yield decreases. By contrast, as the demand decreases, the yield will likely rise. Moore F.S. believes the 10-Year treasury can be a flight to safety in turbulent stock market moments. With the Federal Reserve potentially aiming for interest rate increases, the 10-Year treasury yield will likely rise. If 10-Year treasury yields increase while global interest rates stay low (or negative), demand for treasuries will likely keep a lid on interest rates, as yield hungry investors demand more purchasing at auction. It would be foolish to begin to predict the overall trajectory of rates, so we plan to avoid this prediction. Moore F.S. believes the Federal Reserve has hinted towards rate hikes within 2022. The goal of the Federal Reserve is to not let the economy overheat and to keep a healthy level of inflation. In Q4 of 2021 we have witnessed the Federal Reserve become less confident that inflation is “transitory” and more prepared to make policy change to reduce the risks of inflation. In portfolios where Moore F.S. clients cannot own equities entirely, bonds can offer a portfolio decreased volatility despite having interest rate risk.

Prior to 2008, the Federal Reserve allowed the 10-Year treasury rates to hover around 5% (MarketWatch, 2022). On November 3rd, 2021, Jerome Powell discussed the near-term plan to taper the rate of asset purchases (New York Times, 2021). This was predicted in the last Moore F.S. quarterly review. This tapering of asset purchases started the process of the Federal Reserve getting back to a more normal level of monetary policy. Moore F.S. believes the Federal Reserve will likely increase rates multiple times in 2022. This movement will position interest rates to better handle inflation and recreate an emergency valve for the economy by allowing interest rates in the future to be reduced in a financial emergency. Currently, with rates so low, there isn’t much “dry powder” for the Fed to use in terms of interest rates decreases. In our opinion, the lack of ability to lower rates more, and other factors, created the usage of direct stimulus payments to individuals which may have sparked inflation. We remain optimistic in the Federal Reserve to implement subtle policy change and avoid quick reaction, something both stock and bond holders would appreciate.

In our Q1 2021 review, published in April of 2021, we mentioned the addition of equity holdings that we thought would benefit from public spending, low interest rates and a healthy consumer. In April we added three positions to each client’s account. These positions included Global X US Infrastructure Development ETF (PAVE), Builders FirstSource Inc. (BLDR), & Columbus McKinnon Corp. (CMCO). Moore F.S. plans to keep a close eye on these holdings throughout this quarter and potentially sell the positions, especially ones that have increased rapidly. Accounts created at Moore F.S. in 2021 may not hold the previously mentioned positions.

With a new year comes new goals and strategies for many individuals. For Moore F.S. the new year includes a continued strategy to manage each account on an individual level and include personalized management for each client. In a recent MarketWatch article, J.P. Morgan analysts offered a 2022 S&P 500 closing price estimate of 5,050 (MarketWatch, 2021). If this prediction is correct, a closing price at that level would represent an annual increase of just under 6%, with the S&P 500 closing 2021 at 4,766.18 (Yahoo Finance, 2022). Moore F.S. believes 2022 will be a more turbulent year than 2021, as the Federal Reserve attempts to thread the needle by increasing rates enough to be effective but not send panic through equity markets. We believe the Federal Reserve will increase rates two times in 2022 with each increase consisting of 25 basis points (.25%). We feel that broad consumer strength will be high, company earnings will continue to grow, and stockholders will benefit from exposure to high quality U.S. companies. We estimate earnings growth will not be as significant in 2022 as it were in 2021. 2022 might remind equity investors that, in order to get long-term returns, one must accept near-term volatility. By contrast, predicting a not so fruitful year and missing out on returns, like the ones just posted by 2021, could be more costly. This reflects the buy and hold strategy we outlined in the last quarterly review.

In closing, I want to take a moment to wish you and your family a Happy New Year! It is with great pride that I continue to act as a fiduciary to manage your financial goals in life. I’d like to remind you that I am always available to answer any financial questions you may have, even beyond any questions regarding the assets that Moore F.S. manages. I’d like to offer you my services when it comes to allocating other assets you may have, such as your employer-based 401k plan, for example. If your plan isn’t managed by us, I would be happy to just confirm your holdings are in the most prudent funds, as a value add. I continue to offer life insurance, disability insurance, and long-term care insurance for you and your loved ones. Moore F.S. will never be high pressure about these conversations, but instead will take the approach of education regarding these levels of defensive financial positioning, such as life insurance. The beginning of 2022 serves as an opportunity to remind you that I believe in you and your goals and am excited to move into the next year of our strategy. I strive to continue to offer you cutting-edge trading and reporting through the platform, while personally empowering you to continue to move forward! Whether you’re moving forward for yourself or your family, I’d like to remind you of a quote from Warren Buffett,

“Someone is sitting in the shade of a tree today because someone planted a tree a long time ago.”

Moore Financial Solutions Third Quarter 2021

Tue, 12 Oct 2021 22:41:24 GMT

The third quarter of 2021 looked as if it was on pace for another profitable period, when instead, it began to move lower. The S&P 500 started the quarter at 4,297.50 (the June 30th closing price) and reached a high of 4,545.85 (within the September 2nd trading day). This rise of 5.78% seemed to forecast another quarter providing exponential strength within United States Equities. However, the quarter only

provided a point gain of .23% as it closed September 30th at 4,307.54. The S&P 500 pays a dividend which increases the total return to shareholders above .23%. Moore Financial Solutions uses the S&P 500 as a conversational benchmark for investors’ United States equity exposure and is not referencing a specific managed portfolio. This quarterly report will discuss increasing interest rates, inflation/supply

chain issues, Covid-19, Fed Policy/Taxation, Debt Ceiling, and the Moore F.S. “buy and hold” method to equity investing.

Coincidentally, interest rates took a similar path of increasing within the quarter before coming back down to end the quarter up just slightly. The United States 10-year treasury started the quarter with a 1.469% yield, rose to 1.541% on September 28th and closed the quarter at 1.487%. As interest rates rise, the price of existing bonds will likely decline. While the interest paid on bonds will eventually increase as interest rates go up, many bond investors would be satisfied with this happening gradually. Interest rates increased as Jerome Powell no longer maintained that a tapering of the Fed’s asset purchasing wasn’t on the horizon. Instead, the Fed signaled that a tapering of its asset purchasing program could be happening shortly. Moore F.S. is not surprised by this news as we mentioned in our last quarterly review that this tapering was likely going to be coming in near future Fed meetings. Additionally, Moore F.S. has made a slight tilt to lower duration fixed income tools, while still favoring high credit quality exposure. We believe bonds compliment a portfolio of stocks for our clients who are unable to solely invest in equities, despite having a limited yield and the potential to decline during rising interest rates.

In our Q1 review, we predicted inflation becoming a headwind to companies. As predicted, most companies reported higher costs within the quarter through increased labor costs and/or increased cost of goods. This became further complicated by global supply chain issues and the inability for companies to get much needed products. Last quarter, we referenced the chip shortage for automakers as an

example of this pandemic related constraint. We continue to believe the companies that are maneuverable and flexible will carve a path through these problems. Moore F.S. feels that inflation and supply issues are the main foreseeable threats to American companies, and thus, their share prices.

United States markets kept a close eye on Covid-19 variants, especially the Delta Variant. In this quarter, we have moved from a position of uncertainty surrounding the Delta Variant to increased optimism that we could soon be seeing a Covid-19 antiviral pill, offered by Merck. This news was released on October 1st, 2021. Additionally, some have provided input that the Delta Variant might be the “final wave” of the Covid-19 pandemic. Many businesses reported the Delta Variant impacting their sales and customer flow less impactfully than they had initially forecasted. We remain cautiously optimistic, though uncertain, on the path of Covid-19.

As mentioned, Jerome Powell stated that a tapering of asset purchases is on the horizon. This will reduce easing monetary policy and likely will increase rates somewhat. Companies slightly lose the benefit of cheap money to fund operations when this interest rate increase happens. We believe the interest rate increases have surprised very few, and most have adequately priced this in. Further policy

change conversation surrounding increases in taxes on dividends and capital gains hit equity markets in Q3. It seems the market has digested this information and the potential of these changes are now priced in. Some selling of equities happened when this news began to form. This could potentially be from investors wanting to sell appreciated equity positions at the current capital gains tax level before increases happen or simply due to pricing in a somewhat less favorable opportunity for new money in equities. Moore F.S. understands that changes like this are typically retroactive, potentially because, when the news came out it was already essentially enacted. We believe that this demonstrates the value of the strategy of buying and holding equities, especially in non-retirement/taxable accounts.

Q3 of 2021 marches toward the “Debt Ceiling”, leaving many questions about the future outcome. The “Debt Ceiling” represents the maximum amount of debt the United States Federal Government can have outstanding. Currently, the debt ceiling is set at 28.4 trillion dollars. The results of votes on raising the debt ceiling will likely move markets in the short term. The U.S. faced, and resolved, this problem in 2011, 2013 and 2019, allowing equity markets to aggressively march higher. Moore F.S. believes situations surrounding short-term voting to raise the debt ceiling, or miss payments, is an example of a United States stock market speed bump. This means a pullback in equity prices in the short-term, despite the long-term trajectory of equities historically pointing upward. Some economists would offer that a growing national debt is tolerable if we have a growing gross domestic product. Moore F.S. finds concern with the amount of our spending directly going to pay interest on our debts. In 2019, $375 billion went towards paying interest on our debts. This $1B+ daily cost represented 8.4% of all U.S. federal budget for that year. Moore F.S. remains unimpressed with the trajectory of the amount of U.S. obligations outstanding. U.S. government debt instruments are owned commonly in the form of bills, notes, and bonds in short to long time horizon. Examples of government debt instruments might be seen in shorter term Moore F.S. managed accounts where equities are complimented with fixed income/bonds.

The Moore F.S. strategy continues to be buying and holding companies, or bonds of companies, that will generate earnings within the investors’ timeframe. It is our view that we are in one of the most uncertain times in many of our lives. Fundamentally, when a stock is purchased, its price is determined by the willingness of investors to buy future earnings, or the potential for future earnings. The

willingness to pay upfront for this future benefit, and the amount of future benefit, remain uncertain. We feel that the movement of the S&P 500 from its September 2nd highs to where it closed the month is a reminder that a stock portfolio tends to move higher gradually but fall more rapidly. Moore F.S. sees equity markets being globally focused and ultimately somewhat intertwined. As a result, there will

always be new information coming out globally that will impact stocks held locally. We believe the Q3 example of this was Evergrande, a Chinese development company, who missed interest payments on their bonds on September 23rd. This, and other news, sent waves through global markets as the S&P 500 moved from its closing price on the 23rd (4,448.98) to close the month at 4,307.54. It must be

emphasized that to capture the benefit of equities historically moving higher, the equity investors must be willing to accept that equities will also retract periodically. Moore F.S. generally employs a strategy of buying and holding high quality equities/exchange traded funds (and bonds when necessary) and I personally trade each account with your strategy and goals in mind.

Looking forward into the fourth quarter, we view markets remaining choppy into the holiday season. Our strategy remains to be owning several sectors of the U.S. and global economy due to a lot hinging on uncertainly surrounding Covid-19, lawmaking, etc. We feel if negative headlines do surface, equity investors are prepared to buy the dip. In recent years, the S&P 500 and U.S. equities broadly have shown that many investors are happy to buy a dip, offering support to equity prices. Interest rate environments being so low globally, while inflation is increasing, offer an “only game in town” theme to equities for many investors. This is due to bond yields being low historically and the S&P 500 yielding 1.33% (the yield on the iShares Core S&P 500 ETF). Many investors have a long enough time horizon to buy the hypothetical dip of equities upon negative news. I strive to continue to manage your goals, in the form of your portfolio, to the most prudent of my ability. I plan to reach you by phone to review your portfolio and discuss your goals. Together, we make a great team!

Moore Financial Solutions Second Quarter 2021

Wed, 14 Jul 2021 15:48:34 GMT

The second quarter of 2021 showed strength in equities with the S&P 500 being up each of the three months. The United States equity markets rallied to go three for three, while keeping a close eye on inflationary drag on companies and a historical supply chain issue from Covid-19. The monthly returns of the S&P 500 this quarter were 5.24% in April, .549% in May and 2.22% in June. The U.S. and global economy faced supply chain issues ranging from the inability to physically get shipping containers, to a boom in commodities, such as the well documented surge in lumber prices and labor shortages. One thing seemed clear; the American consumer continued

to spring back from the Covid-19 lull of spending. This quarterly report will review aspects of Q2 regarding supply chain issues, Federal Reserve discussions, interest rates, the Delta Variant, and discuss projections/strategies moving forward.

As the second quarter of 2021 continued the post COVID recovery process, many consumers continued to spend after months of savings. This V-shaped global recovery created an imbalance between consumers and suppliers. This results in price fluctuation. The U.S. and other global economies lack the ability to be highly maneuverable. Instead, these economies take months, if not years, to ramp back up after such uncertainty from the pandemic. After years of demanding smart technology in what seems like everything we use, there has been an increased demand in computer “chips” (to oversimplify). The great 2021 chip shortage, as well as other materials/labor shortages, have created a new phenomenon of “depreciating assets” having appreciated, such as trucks, machinery, equipment, etc. We use this as an example of the impact global supply chain issues can have on our everyday lives.

At Moore F.S., we believe U.S. equity market investors had a close eye on the Federal Reserve and their intentions regarding interest rates and the purchase of securities on the open market. It is our belief that the Federal Reserve will make policy change in some form within a

year or two. Jerome Powell seemed to thread the needle and calm U.S. equity investors’ nerves this quarter with gentle language surrounding the subject of policy change. The Federal Reserve is eyeing the strategy of slowing their purchase of assets on open markets. These purchases essentially add money into the economy and have a quantitative easing effect on our economy. This easing strategy was implemented in the recovery of the great recession and have not fully been discontinued. Investment allocation strategy, especially for more conservative investors, becomes paramount during these times of potential interest rate changes. Moore F.S. bond portfolios favor high quality limited duration bonds, along with other bond types.

Interest rates decreased within the second quarter of 2021. The U.S. Ten Year Treasury note started the quarter with a yield of 1.745% and ended the quarter at 1.469%. In the opinion of Moore F.S., this slight decrease was a result of the overshot of interest rates in March, a month that saw a .33% increase of yield from 1.415% to 1.745%. Additionally, the Federal Reserve strongly sent the message that interest rate increases are not immediately on the horizon. This decrease of rates had a positive impact on the price of bonds. As interest rates fell, the bonds Moore F.S. held appreciated in value, because it became harder for investors to find new bonds paying that higher yield. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF TLT can illustrate this with a Q2 appreciation of 6.57%, moving from a starting value of 135.45 to 144.35 per share. This 6.57% increase in TLT paired nicely with an 8.06% increase in the iShares Core S&P 500 ETF IVV for the quarter. The IVV remains the largest holding of Moore F.S. for Q2 2021. Generally, bonds and stocks may have an inverse relationship, but a decreasing interest rate for the second quarter was a broadly favorable event for investors of both equity and debt holdings. The reduction of interest rates helps potentially increase the margins of companies, then reflects in the share price. Additionally, falling interest rates lead to an increase in the current price of bonds within a portfolio.

Lastly, we believe the Delta Variant of Covid-19 kept U.S. equities from hitting the thrusters with more emphasis. We seem to have lived through so much in the last couple years that it is without surprise that we are not fully in the clear from this mutation. The Delta Variant continues to spread globally and seems prevalent within the Midwest. The uncertainty of how rapidly this variant can spread and how effective current vaccines are will continue to be a key focus in our lives and within equity and bond prices.

Looking forward, Moore F.S. believes the recovery is on, and investors and consumers are willing to continue a path to more spending and higher equity prices. We remain highly invested in the United States equity markets, when appropriate for investors, and continue to be invested lightly into what we consider recovering assets, such as the cruise lines. For investors that can tolerate risk and exposure to volatility, we see Small Cap U.S. equities leading the trend higher over the next few years with much uncertainty in interest rates to potentially influence this trade. We see many of the supply chain issues being resolved in the next 9-15+ months, depending on the industry and sector of the economy.

I remain committed to managing every portfolio in a unique and personalized manner while individually trading each account. It is with great pride I continue to work with you on your financial goals and bring you the most efficient and cutting-edge portfolios and tradability. I continue to manage your goals and dreams, not simply your stocks and bonds. Moore F.S. continues to strive to use high quality companies with ideal earnings, generally speaking. On a personal note, within the second quarter of 2021, my wife, Samantha, and I welcomed second our daughter, Harper, into the world and things have mostly returned to normal within the Moore F.S. schedule and visiting with clients. As always please reach me personally if you have any questions or if I can help you. I remain committed to steering Moore F.S. in the direction of being as efficient and competitive as the largest firms, while providing strategic and personalized service you would find within the smallest of organizations.

Tyler A. Moore

913-731-9105

TMoore@TMooreFS.com

www.TMooreFinancialSolutions.com

Moore Financial Solutions First Quarter 2021

Thu, 01 Apr 2021 17:02:18 GMT

Q1 2021 is now in the rear-view mirror, and it left us with a lot to review. This quarter brought an unprecedented amount of “firsts”. This is the first full quarter of Moore Financial Solutions, and I am proud to bring personal management with a cutting-edge platform. I would like to continue to welcome you to Moore F.S. and thank you for choosing to do business with us. You remain my (and our) #1 priority, and I wish to make very clear that I am always able to be reached to discuss your account directly. We see life getting back to some level of normalcy in 2021 and a shift back to consistent face to face meetings. I have missed engaging with you in person, face to face. Four Q1 events will be detailed below.

First, Q1 hosted the one-year anniversary of the start of the pandemic. I consider the start of the pandemic when the Big 12 tournament cancelled games in early-mid March 2020. It was clear we were in unprecedented times regarding society, health, and your investments. Looking back over the past 12 months, we see recovery in equity prices, having moved from approximately 2,237.40 on the S & P 500 on 03/23/20 to 3,972.89 to end Q1, and ultimately falling one trading day short of hitting 4,000 on the S & P 500. Moore F.S. clients did a great job of having faith that equity prices would recover when things were very scary, and I personally thank you for that trust. I remember in March ’20 seeing empty store shelves, lock down orders, and the sight we all became very used to, masks! This was undoubtedly a scary sight, but a year later markets are recovering and are on solid footing.

Second, a Q1 interest rate rise is welcomed news to many investors holding investments that pay dividends. However, the long-term gain of interest rate rises comes with some short-term pain. In the first quarter of 2021, the U.S. 10-year treasury yield nearly doubled from approximately .93% to 1.73%. This increase brings rates back to a more normal level as the 10-year treasury historically has been over 4%. Fixed income and bond portfolios saw price pressure as interest rates rose, as they maintain an inverse relationship of price and yield. When yields go up, Moore F.S. will be able to purchase bonds for you that have higher yields. This is a great thing, but the bonds you already have in your portfolio will lose some price, because they are less competitive in yield to the newest bonds issued at higher yield. For example, a bond that was worth $100 may have decreased to $99 dollars on days interest rates sharply rose. Moore F.S. portfolio management strategy was to continue to hold high credit quality bonds with shorter durations. These short duration bonds did not experience as much negative price pressure as longer duration bonds. Q1 had roughly half a dozen trading days where equity markets were higher, but a rise in interest rates caused a balanced portfolio to be down overall for that day due to bonds’ repricing. Bonds now have a better entry point than they did to start the year, having already experienced the interest rate rises this quarter. We expect interest rates to continue to rise over the intermediate and long term.

Third, “stimulus package” became the talk in mid Q1 as rumors of a $1.9 trillion dollar emergency package drove the market higher. These payouts likely gave consumers a bit more confidence in what was a difficult time for many, and businesses were positively impacted with a jolt of sales. It is still to be determined, and a near term concern of Moore F.S., if these large jolts will spark inflation and to what degree. It goes without saying that the Q1 stimulus package will go down in history.

Last, GameStop. You definitely heard about this monumental market force that had never been seen until Q1 ’21. The number of calls I received questioning the movement was unprecedented. Ultimately, the GameStop movement had little impact on your portfolio and was a phenomenon few expected. As the pressure of many large hedge funds betting against GameStop mounted, the stock price was driven down. Collectively, investors began to drive the price higher by betting in favor of GameStop and buying the shares. As the price began to rise, those betting against GameStop had to purchase the shares to undo their previous short. These dual forces along with momentum traders jumping on board drove the stock upward significantly. Moore F.S. client accounts did not include ownership of GameStop before or at any point during this phenomenon and we remain committed to owning equities of higher current earning companies, generally speaking.

Looking forward, we believe equities will maintain a path to higher levels in Q2. Of course, it is hard to make assumptions in a limited term such as three months. But we believe the American consumer will continue to live their life as if they now have the freedom to leave their houses after a year and will get out and spend money. Optimistically, we see the Federal Reserve keeping a close eye on inflation and continuing to near their 2% goal. A stronger dollar of recent weeks might act as a tailwind for consumers, while inflation has the opposite effect. An infrastructure bill will likely inject more money into the system, and Moore F.S. plans to increase allocation to areas that may be positively impacted. Moore F.S. looks to add holdings of PAVE, a U.S. infrastructure development ETF, to client accounts when appropriate in Q2, as well as small weightings to Columbus McKinnon Corp. (CMCO) and Builders First Source Inc. (BLDR). We plan to continue to hold recovery names such as Carnival Cruise Lines and Red Robin Gourmet Burger through Q2, when appropriate for clients. We see corporate tax rates heading higher and inflation ultimately pressuring companies in Q2. We see the second quarter

of 2021 being less eventful than the first but remain maneuverable within our investment philosophy. Together we make a great team and aim to accomplish your goals.

Tyler A. Moore

913-731-9105

TMoore@TMooreFS.com

TMooreFinancialSolutions.com

This material has been prepared for information and educational purposes and should not be construed as a solicitation for the purchase or sell of any investment. The content is developed from sources believed to be reliable. This information is not intended to be investment, legal or tax advice. Investing involves risk, including the loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in a period of declining values. Investment advisory services offered by duly registered individuals on behalf of ChangePath, LLC a Registered Investment Adviser. ChangePath, LLC and Moore Financial Solutions are unaffiliated entities.