Moore Financial Solutions 2nd Quarter 2025

Tyler Moore • July 14, 2025

  The stock market carousel continued in the second quarter of 2025, with some investors jumping off, while others jumped aboard. Aiming for a solid return to follow a negative 4.59% Q1, the S&P 500 slated a 10.57% return for our second quarter (1). During this most recent quarter, I leaned on my beliefs mentioned fifteen months ago in my Q1 2024 Moore Financial Solutions review; “we feel that investors unknowingly become more faithful in broad U.S. equities to recover after a downturn.” In that previous review I offered a thought that investors have become more trusting that markets will recover after seeing it happen in the 29 historical bear markets, as compared to the first ever bear market, for example. Though my continued theory is that the average bear market duration will decrease over time (with younger investors portfolio managing more assets and algorithmic trading increasing), even I was surprised by the minor 83-day bear market speed bump that the S&P 500 shook off, given that prior to this the average bear market was 289 days (2). The S&P 500 would go on to close Q2 both positive for the year and at record highs. In this quarterly review we’ll look at how bear markets are rarely the same and how our strategy must evolve. We’ll discuss a stubbornly high interest rate, our positioning for potential interest rate decreases, and global matters affecting the market.


  It’s been said for years that the stock market takes the escalator up and the elevator down. But why? Simply put, this is the result of the driving forces of selling and buying stocks. If investors are optimistic, they’ll commonly allocate to the stock market in an attempt to grow their money. But too much of this buying is deemed greedy and is a great evil of long-term investing. If investors, however, are fearful, they’ll sell their stocks, (at least the less emotionally committed, shorter term investors), driving the price of stocks lower. We believe Q2 is a great example of the battle between fear and greed, and the only real concern is being wrong on predicting short-term market movements. Over the first six trading days of Q2, investors sharply drove the S&P 500 about 11.2% lower, with panic fueled by President Donald Trump’s April 2nd liberation day announcements (3). A resilient S&P 500 would heal the 11.2% wound in only 17 trading days, leaving behind investors who may have been scared out of the market near April 8th closing lows on the S&P 500 of 4,982.77 (4). This would be the first and only closing price below 5,000 on the S&P 500 from April 20th, 2024, to today’s July 1st, 2025, date. In our opinion, this supports our thoughts regarding algorithmic trading, which likely conducted heavy buying at levels of support below 5,000. April 9th would serve as the third largest one-day gain for the S&P 500 in history, increasing by about 9.5% (5). We view the sudden announcements and emotional reactions in the stock market as a great reason to stay the course in our investments. By staying focused on our long-term perspective, while short-term winners and losers argue over the current price, we’ll be less likely to panic and instead willing to accept an average return, rather than attempt to outsmart the market. Moore F.S. was able to capitalize in some situations by selling bonds and buying stocks, when appropriate. While it is not fully determined who lost what, it is implied that a portion of investors locked in losses in Q2, by panic selling with the herd mentality near April 8th lows. These investors would, as a result, miss out on what would become a fruitful Q2 for those willing to wait the required 84 days and not be emotionally rattled. 

A tug-of-war has ensued between President Trump and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. As chair Powell is tasked with threading the needle with his interest rate decrease timing strategy. President Trump has openly encouraged chair Powell to move more quickly on interest rate cuts in hopes of easing consumer budgets and helping federal debt costs. The extreme difficulty for Powell, as mentioned in our past reviews, lies in his attempt to ensure that inflation expectations get back to his two percent goal, which has been made more difficult with tariffs. However, he must not keep rates elevated too long, potentially harming economic growth. Moore F.S. remains under the expectation that the Federal Reserve has at least one percent of cuts coming within the next year and has uniquely positioned portfolios for this occurrence. We anticipate investors being able to capitalize on a decreasing interest rate for varying reasons. Investors closer to their goal or in retirement may hold bond funds that will appreciate from interest rate decreases. For these investors, Moore F.S. has specifically chosen to primarily hold long duration bond funds, which stand to benefit greater from interest rate decreases. For all investors, even those that do not hold bond funds (bonds historically may be too conservative for long term investors), we’ve generally increased the weighting of small/mid cap companies in names such as iShares Core S&P Small Cap ETF (ticker symbol IJR), iShares S&P Mid-Cap 400 Value ETF (IJJ), iShares S&P Mid-Cap 400 Growth ETF (IJK). A strategy that increases weightings of positions rather than full sell or buy orders.

  Zooming out to global matters we highlight the June 22nd, 2025, operation Midnight Hammer which targeted Iranian nuclear facilities Fordo, Natanz and Isfahan. Regarding the effectiveness of the damage, “several key Iranian nuclear facilities were destroyed and would have to be rebuilt over the course of years,” CIA Director John Ratcliffe said (7). When trading next occurred on June 23rd, 2025, the S&P 500 rose about one percent for the day (8). WTI Crude oil dropped 7.2% vs the prior Friday closing price (9) . In the opinion of Moore F.S. these reactions were a relief trade from a situation that could have been far worse. While we do not see this as the best-case scenario, we think it was far from a worst-case scenario. Additionally, President Trump has made very clear that our strikes will continue if Iran is unwilling to make a deal regarding their nuclear program or if they make a deal and do not honor it. As markets have been known to “climb a wall of worry” it seems the market has climbed past the Iran worry momentarily as the S&P 500 would go on to close Q2 about 4% higher after the strikes by the United States on Iran.


  “Death and taxes,” the humorous way we describe uncomfortable things you can count on. Sadly, I’m here to add to your list, rough patches in the stock market. You might as well save yourself the future discomfort by just adding it to your list now. The stock market is going to have terrible moments, it is inevitable. Although I’m celebrating my thirteenth year of passionately managing money, organizing assets for clients, and helping to control human emotions, I’m far more proud that Moore F.S. celebrates its fifth anniversary this year. In those short five years I’ve managed portfolios through Covid-19, the great inflationary spike and interest rate increases that would follow, and now this most recent bear market of 2025. No two downturns are the same, so the recovery strategy can vary greatly and seem unclear. I want to thank you for your tremendous confidence in me and my abilities to manage you through any market cycle. With no statistical data to back it up, I believe Moore F.S. clients must be some of the best in the area at understanding that the market might just go down three times faster than it increases and recognizing that the normal human emotion of panic/fear may come over you at times but not letting it get the better of your actions. The good news is that I believe, in solely my own opinion, that a bear market’s average duration will continue to decrease as Q2 offers yet another suggestion to ride the market movements as an investor, rather than timing the market and introducing lucky/unlucky gamblers. I wish you and your families a healthy and prosperous Summer and hope your investments perform well. It is with great pride to be just a phone call away and always willing to talk about any of your financial strategies or questions you may have. Moore F.S. seeks to serve our clients beyond just the account in which we provide financial management.

Did you know? Moore Financial Solutions offers unique/custom-built insurance solutions. Does anything keep you up at night that we could help fix? If so give us a call and we’ll help find you the best policy rates and options as we shop the open market of providers, all while offering our zero-pressure sales process. This includes Life Insurance, Disability Income Insurance, and Long-Term Care Insurance. Let’s review your policy and search for Moore Solutions today!


1. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history/

2. https://www.hartfordfunds.com/practice-management/client-conversations/managing-volatility/bear-markets.html

3. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history/

4. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history/

5. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history/

6. https://www.morningstar.com/markets/when-will-fed-start-cutting-interest-rates

7. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/cia-irans-nuclear-program-severely-damaged-trump-iran-strikes-fbi-probes-leak/

8. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history/

9. https://oilprice.com/oil-price-charts/


This material has been prepared for information and educational purposes and should not be construed as a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any investment. The content is developed from sources believed to be reliable. This information is not intended to be investment, legal or tax advice. Investing involves risk, including the loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in a

period of declining values. Past performance may not be used to predict future results. Investment advisory services offered by duly registered

individuals on behalf of CreativeOne Wealth, LLC a Registered Investment Adviser. CreativeOne Wealth, LLC and Moore Financial Solutions

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Moore Financial Solutions 2nd Quarter 2026

By Tyler Moore • July 14, 2026
The investment tree you planted previously may have provided more fruit in the second quarter of 2026 with the S&P 500 rising by about 15% (1). Additionally, some small cap funds such as ticker IJR (iShares Core S&P Small-Cap ETF) rose by about 19.3%, as investors felt relieved that interest rates were decreasing (2). This small cap surge was welcomed by portfolio managers such as Moore Financial Solutions, who have closely monitored the historical outperformance of small cap companies, which lagged last year. In Q2 all eyes focused on the U.S./Iran War, as investors pushed WTI crude oil prices to $112.95 on April 6th, 2026, an increase of 104% in 112 days from the December 15th, 2025, low. Investors viewed rising oil prices as a signal of higher inflation and worried that newly appointed Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh might delay the interest rate cuts that many investors expected. Take five minutes every quarter, twenty minutes total for all of 2026, to better understand from my point of view why I believe the stock market is in an uptrend, the movement of other asset classes, and our thoughts of if this can continue. If a traveler arrived near Kansas City for a World Cup match, knew nothing about Moore F.S. and was curiously asking about firm values, or A.I. was tasked with doing analysis of Moore F.S. quarterly reviews, you would hear a common theme. Repetitively, we attempt to instill three thoughts regarding today's modern investor. First, stocks will move both up and down, so do not get used to 25% years, but be ready to use them to your advantage. Secondly, whether you are an individual client or Moore Financial Solutions managing $27.8 million, we are still a small fish in an enormous ocean of investors. That reality is one reason we avoid trying to time the market or become overly concerned with short-term movements. The intention is not to make either party feel small, rather create a metaphor that you are subject to the tide going up or down and remind you that it will do both. Lastly, this is not Mayberry where Wally's Filling Station, Floyd's Barbershop, and Mayberry Diner represent most of your commerce. In fact, you are likely tied deeply into a global economy with dozens of moving parts from tariff rules to the Strait of Hormuz. We will dive deeper into that strait and use West Texas Intermediate prices for our conversation. Last quarter we honed in on the logistics of the Strait of Hormuz stating, “That roughly 21-mile-wide body of water, the Strait of Hormuz, realistically can create a recession.” In other words, the economy is increasingly global, and a small shipping route over 7,500 miles from Kansas City impacts your prices for gas and thousands of other items. Moore F.S. took the opinion that the oil price spike would be short lived and spoke freely to clients about this view. We did not take this viewpoint on a hunch, rather we studied the backwardation of WTI crude oil prices. This unique backwardation of oil prices looked similar to the inverted yield curve our firm witnessed for a couple of years from 2022-2024 (you can learn more about yield curve inversion in the previous Moore F.S. reviews written Q3 2024 and Q3 2025). In our backwardation forecasting we did not feel obligated to predict the price of oil, rather we used crude oil futures markets to determine where traders were imagining oil prices. This reassuring feeling of a decrease in oil prices combined extremely well with our buy and hold philosophy. In other words, we did not panic sell stocks in fear that oil might hit $200/barrel, as multiple firms said was possible. Since 1985, the crude oil market has been in contango (a positively sloping price curve) around 42% of the time. It has been in backwardation 58% of the time as measured by the price difference between the front-month contract and contracts for six months in the future (4). Higher fuel prices fueled inflation concerns. As a result of an increasing oil price economy, traders drove interest rates higher as well. An economy that imagined a couple rate decreases for the year now was eyeing a spike in inflation and had to reposition interest rates. As a result, Wall Street pushed the 10-Year U.S. Treasury rate from 4.318% to 4.469% in Q2. Though we aim to avoid interest rate prognostications, we firmly believe the United States will rejoin a decreasing interest rate environment for the remainder of the year, at least from the 4.469% levels, barring geopolitical shocks to the system. 

Moore Financial Solutions 1st Quarter 2026

By Tyler Moore • April 9, 2026
The past 35 days have humbled investors as we witnessed the S&P 500 lose approximately 6% from February 25th into the quarter's close. The S&P 500 finished the entire quarter 4.6% lower, which represents the first losing quarter since Q1 of last year, in which the S&P 500 lost about 4.59%. Much like an emotional play or movie, the market offered three scenes of varying benefit to investor portfolios. Scene one was brief but fruitful. In these first 12 days of the year the S&P 500 rose about 1.92%. Scene two left investors leaning on the emotional lessons learned from 2025's market downturn, with the S&P 500 moving about 9% lower from day 13 of the year until March 30th. Scene three flashed quickly and only represented one day. On this last day of the quarter, the S&P 500 meaningfully rose about 2.9% in an effort to heal a portion of the quarter's losses. I believe, based upon my nearly 14 years of money management, that stock market history doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme. Though I'm not predicting a positive year for the S&P 500 (and admittedly not in the business of making such predictions) this year's chart for the broad stock market looks somewhat like last year's. Those first quarter '25 stumbles were later looked at as a massive buying opportunity, symbolizing the power of "buy and hold" as it relates to stocks. Only time will tell if these stock market worries are warranted and if there will be continued damage to stock portfolios because of the conflict in Iran. Additionally, the market is eyeing oil price increases, interest rate increases, various geopolitical risks, and the additional unforeseen risks on the horizon. Or are stock market investors currently pricing in many areas of worry, all of which will subside in the coming weeks? Dive into the quarter's review in which I attempt to illustrate investing through my eyes, discuss quarterly geopolitical events, and speak to market moving factors of Q1 and investor emotions as a result. Use this tool to educate yourself and reduce worry or fear as it relates to investing.
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