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Take control of your financial future.

Take the guesswork out of your finances.


If you’ve reached the point in life where you’re serious about investing and want to put together a strategic plan for all market cycles and hire someone to be a fiduciary of assets, you’ve come to the right place.
MEET THE TEAM

Take the guesswork out of your finances.


If you’ve reached the point in life where you’re serious about investing and want to put together a strategic plan for all market cycles and hire someone to be a fiduciary of assets, you’ve come to the right place.
MEET THE TEAM

Crude oil tanker ship at sea at sunset
By Tyler Moore • October 15, 2026
Tyler A. Moore's Q3 2026 market review covering the S&P 500, the bond market, oil prices, interest rates, and what it all could mean for your portfolio.
By Tyler Moore • July 14, 2026
The investment tree you planted previously may have provided more fruit in the second quarter of 2026 with the S&P 500 rising by about 15% (1). Additionally, some small cap funds such as ticker IJR (iShares Core S&P Small-Cap ETF) rose by about 19.3%, as investors felt relieved that interest rates were decreasing (2). This small cap surge was welcomed by portfolio managers such as Moore Financial Solutions, who have closely monitored the historical outperformance of small cap companies, which lagged last year. In Q2 all eyes focused on the U.S./Iran War, as investors pushed WTI crude oil prices to $112.95 on April 6th, 2026, an increase of 104% in 112 days from the December 15th, 2025, low. Investors viewed rising oil prices as a signal of higher inflation and worried that newly appointed Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh might delay the interest rate cuts that many investors expected. Take five minutes every quarter, twenty minutes total for all of 2026, to better understand from my point of view why I believe the stock market is in an uptrend, the movement of other asset classes, and our thoughts of if this can continue. If a traveler arrived near Kansas City for a World Cup match, knew nothing about Moore F.S. and was curiously asking about firm values, or A.I. was tasked with doing analysis of Moore F.S. quarterly reviews, you would hear a common theme. Repetitively, we attempt to instill three thoughts regarding today's modern investor. First, stocks will move both up and down, so do not get used to 25% years, but be ready to use them to your advantage. Secondly, whether you are an individual client or Moore Financial Solutions managing $27.8 million, we are still a small fish in an enormous ocean of investors. That reality is one reason we avoid trying to time the market or become overly concerned with short-term movements. The intention is not to make either party feel small, rather create a metaphor that you are subject to the tide going up or down and remind you that it will do both. Lastly, this is not Mayberry where Wally's Filling Station, Floyd's Barbershop, and Mayberry Diner represent most of your commerce. In fact, you are likely tied deeply into a global economy with dozens of moving parts from tariff rules to the Strait of Hormuz. We will dive deeper into that strait and use West Texas Intermediate prices for our conversation. Last quarter we honed in on the logistics of the Strait of Hormuz stating, “That roughly 21-mile-wide body of water, the Strait of Hormuz, realistically can create a recession.” In other words, the economy is increasingly global, and a small shipping route over 7,500 miles from Kansas City impacts your prices for gas and thousands of other items. Moore F.S. took the opinion that the oil price spike would be short lived and spoke freely to clients about this view. We did not take this viewpoint on a hunch, rather we studied the backwardation of WTI crude oil prices. This unique backwardation of oil prices looked similar to the inverted yield curve our firm witnessed for a couple of years from 2022-2024 (you can learn more about yield curve inversion in the previous Moore F.S. reviews written Q3 2024 and Q3 2025). In our backwardation forecasting we did not feel obligated to predict the price of oil, rather we used crude oil futures markets to determine where traders were imagining oil prices. This reassuring feeling of a decrease in oil prices combined extremely well with our buy and hold philosophy. In other words, we did not panic sell stocks in fear that oil might hit $200/barrel, as multiple firms said was possible. Since 1985, the crude oil market has been in contango (a positively sloping price curve) around 42% of the time. It has been in backwardation 58% of the time as measured by the price difference between the front-month contract and contracts for six months in the future (4). Higher fuel prices fueled inflation concerns. As a result of an increasing oil price economy, traders drove interest rates higher as well. An economy that imagined a couple rate decreases for the year now was eyeing a spike in inflation and had to reposition interest rates. As a result, Wall Street pushed the 10-Year U.S. Treasury rate from 4.318% to 4.469% in Q2. Though we aim to avoid interest rate prognostications, we firmly believe the United States will rejoin a decreasing interest rate environment for the remainder of the year, at least from the 4.469% levels, barring geopolitical shocks to the system. 
By Tyler Moore • April 9, 2026
The past 35 days have humbled investors as we witnessed the S&P 500 lose approximately 6% from February 25th into the quarter's close. The S&P 500 finished the entire quarter 4.6% lower, which represents the first losing quarter since Q1 of last year, in which the S&P 500 lost about 4.59%. Much like an emotional play or movie, the market offered three scenes of varying benefit to investor portfolios. Scene one was brief but fruitful. In these first 12 days of the year the S&P 500 rose about 1.92%. Scene two left investors leaning on the emotional lessons learned from 2025's market downturn, with the S&P 500 moving about 9% lower from day 13 of the year until March 30th. Scene three flashed quickly and only represented one day. On this last day of the quarter, the S&P 500 meaningfully rose about 2.9% in an effort to heal a portion of the quarter's losses. I believe, based upon my nearly 14 years of money management, that stock market history doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme. Though I'm not predicting a positive year for the S&P 500 (and admittedly not in the business of making such predictions) this year's chart for the broad stock market looks somewhat like last year's. Those first quarter '25 stumbles were later looked at as a massive buying opportunity, symbolizing the power of "buy and hold" as it relates to stocks. Only time will tell if these stock market worries are warranted and if there will be continued damage to stock portfolios because of the conflict in Iran. Additionally, the market is eyeing oil price increases, interest rate increases, various geopolitical risks, and the additional unforeseen risks on the horizon. Or are stock market investors currently pricing in many areas of worry, all of which will subside in the coming weeks? Dive into the quarter's review in which I attempt to illustrate investing through my eyes, discuss quarterly geopolitical events, and speak to market moving factors of Q1 and investor emotions as a result. Use this tool to educate yourself and reduce worry or fear as it relates to investing.
By Tyler Moore • January 21, 2026
As 2025 ends, we joyfully review another positive quarter for the S&P 500, with it logging about a 2.3% gain, plus dividends (1). Much like a banked 3-pointer in a game of basketball, we won’t complain about scoring points, even though it may not have looked pretty, with extreme volatility near April (and again seven companies creating a large portion of gains.) Realistically, the annual return of 16.39% on the S&P 500 for the year is great, especially when it follows 24% and 23% returns the prior two years (2).However, we take exception to the continual heavy lifting done by the “Mag 7” (Google/Alphabet, Nvidia, Microsoft, Tesla, Meta/Facebook, Apple, and Amazon) as they now make up nearly 35% of the S&P 500. The other 493 stocks making up the S&P 500 represent the other approximately 65% of the index and only returned approximately 10% for the year. I will discuss much more on this and how Moore F.S. has attempted to mitigate some of this Mag 7 risk. Additionally, we’ll discuss interest rate movements along the yield curve, the Federal Reserve, and share our most recent trade and strategy for 2026. More than likely “Mag 7” is a phrase you’ve heard of. Naturally, some of you have not heard of the financial term Mag 7, so perhaps the only thing coming to mind is the 1960 movie The Magnificent Seven. In today’s world Mag 7, as mentioned above, refers to some of our largest publicly traded companies in the United States. Not by coincidence, each of these companies are all using Artificial Intelligence (A.I.) in some way. This ranges from Microsoft being extremely involved, Nvidia the A.I. hardware backbone, to Tesla using moderate adoption for self-driving. Our view is that the recent run up in big tech likely is merited, with J.P. Morgan recently offering, “the advent of generative AI is a seminal moment in tech, more so than the Internet or the iPhone (3).” With some offering such a bullish viewpoint on the Mag 7 we do not fear investing in it for the appropriate client. But, with the Mag 7 having about a 29 price to earnings ratio (read MFS Q1 ’24 review to learn more about how we use P/E ratios) and the other 493 stocks that make up the index having a P/E ratio of only about 20, we believe the time has come to reduce our exposure to Mag 7 holdings. We consider it our foremost goal to balance risk. By taking a risk/reward analysis approach, we believe the value is in the 493, but we are not abandoning the Mag 7 holdings.
By Tyler Moore • October 14, 2025
With many asset classes moving higher in Q3 we hope you were able to take advantage within your account! I’m pleased to be able to review an S&P 500 that was able to maintain a generally upward trend since April 8th, 2025, a day that would not so ironically be the only closing price below 5,000 so far this year, an important statistic we will discuss in greater detail later. As investors weighed a decreasing rate environment in which the Federal Reserve reduced rates, and a weakening labor market, the S&P 500 logged a 7.79% increase (1). Fixed Income rallied with the Moore F.S. largest bond holding (iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF) increasing about 1.27% within Q3 (as of 09/30/25) and paying another nearly 1% dividend for the quarter (2). With stocks and bonds rallying together over the last quarter, I’ll discuss market moving events within the quarter, lay out my opinion of how investors can consider deploying capital in a highly valued market, provide trading ideas, and discuss our thoughts on why U.S. markets are priced at a premium globally. Tasked with fiduciary* management of hundreds of accounts, Moore F.S. is always strategic about your investment holdings, and attempts to strike a solid balance of risk and reward within each account. The gray-haired veteran’s account looks far different from the client born this side of the new millennium. To support this strategy, we believe that interest rate policy and trajectory can be the easiest variable to monitor regarding the decision making of portfolio construction, which Moore F.S. is proud to do “in house”, instead of using high-cost mutual funds for example. This Exchange Traded Fund oriented strategy typically results in the older client’s asset allocation being constructed of stocks and bonds strategically, and the client of the “new millennium” hosting strategy that is more related to the capitalization of stocks. In other words, in the average environment, Moore F.S. tilts younger portfolios more to small caps (using smaller companies instead of the large ones like you’ll find in the S&P 500). To oversimplify, Moore F.S. set portfolios up to help them better perform when rates fall. We feel strongly that the active management of passive ETF’s can help ensure you’ll have solid asset allocation without using actively managed mutual funds which typically lag.
By Tyler Moore • July 14, 2025
The stock market carousel continued in the second quarter of 2025, with some investors jumping off, while others jumped aboard. Aiming for a solid return to follow a negative 4.59% Q1, the S&P 500 slated a 10.57% return for our second quarter (1). During this most recent quarter, I leaned on my beliefs mentioned fifteen months ago in my Q1 2024 Moore Financial Solutions review; “we feel that investors unknowingly become more faithful in broad U.S. equities to recover after a downturn.” In that previous review I offered a thought that investors have become more trusting that markets will recover after seeing it happen in the 29 historical bear markets, as compared to the first ever bear market, for example. Though my continued theory is that the average bear market duration will decrease over time (with younger investors portfolio managing more assets and algorithmic trading increasing), even I was surprised by the minor 83-day bear market speed bump that the S&P 500 shook off, given that prior to this the average bear market was 289 days (2). The S&P 500 would go on to close Q2 both positive for the year and at record highs. In this quarterly review we’ll look at how bear markets are rarely the same and how our strategy must evolve. We’ll discuss a stubbornly high interest rate, our positioning for potential interest rate decreases, and global matters affecting the market. It’s been said for years that the stock market takes the escalator up and the elevator down. But why? Simply put, this is the result of the driving forces of selling and buying stocks. If investors are optimistic, they’ll commonly allocate to the stock market in an attempt to grow their money. But too much of this buying is deemed greedy and is a great evil of long-term investing. If investors, however, are fearful, they’ll sell their stocks, (at least the less emotionally committed, shorter term investors), driving the price of stocks lower. We believe Q2 is a great example of the battle between fear and greed, and the only real concern is being wrong on predicting short-term market movements. Over the first six trading days of Q2, investors sharply drove the S&P 500 about 11.2% lower, with panic fueled by President Donald Trump’s April 2nd liberation day announcements (3). A resilient S&P 500 would heal the 11.2% wound in only 17 trading days, leaving behind investors who may have been scared out of the market near April 8th closing lows on the S&P 500 of 4,982.77 (4). This would be the first and only closing price below 5,000 on the S&P 500 from April 20th, 2024, to today’s July 1st, 2025, date. In our opinion, this supports our thoughts regarding algorithmic trading, which likely conducted heavy buying at levels of support below 5,000. April 9th would serve as the third largest one-day gain for the S&P 500 in history, increasing by about 9.5% (5). We view the sudden announcements and emotional reactions in the stock market as a great reason to stay the course in our investments. By staying focused on our long-term perspective, while short-term winners and losers argue over the current price, we’ll be less likely to panic and instead willing to accept an average return, rather than attempt to outsmart the market. Moore F.S. was able to capitalize in some situations by selling bonds and buying stocks, when appropriate. While it is not fully determined who lost what, it is implied that a portion of investors locked in losses in Q2, by panic selling with the herd mentality near April 8th lows. These investors would, as a result, miss out on what would become a fruitful Q2 for those willing to wait the required 84 days and not be emotionally rattled.
By Tyler Moore • April 10, 2025
About thirteen years ago when I started my career as a Financial Services Professional, I was almost instantly astute to the number one factor that determines client success. Of course, this determination was solely my own opinion. I’ve never turned on CNBC and heard scientific data backing it and likely never will. You can nearly ignore researching passive management vs. active management, throw out a comparison of exchange traded funds vs. mutual funds, and forget all about whether a Roth IRA or Traditional IRA suits you best. I believe the number one determinate of success that a client must have is “Proper Expectations”. It is by no coincidence that I believe Moore Financial Solutions clients have extremely reasonable, and ultimately the proper, expectations regarding investing. Investing long term is no casino, rather a patient approach to creating current income and future earnings. Prior to gaining licensure to be on your side financially, I know people that panicked and sold their entire portfolio and moved to cash positions in the Great Recession of 2008-09. They told the story years later to me regarding the vast missed opportunity and harm in locking in the losses. Imagine an investor panicking in Q1 of 2009 and selling stocks below 700 on the S&P 500, an index that is about eight times higher today at 5,635 (1). The S&P 500 would see gains of over 75% in the eleven months to follow, peaking this client’s FOMO and desire to get back into the market, only to sharply drop 16% over the next two months (2). My advice to you, and the number one way I can help you with your investment success, continue not being like this example investor. But rather, stay rooted in your investment philosophy. Realistically, the stages of someone’s investment life are humorous. We typically have little money early on, and it is easy to overcome the emotional impact from the money movement (a 10% decline in a portfolio of $2,500 might equate to a couple days’ earnings). But the problem is, there aren’t ample funds in that portfolio to provide life-changing growth either. For example, last year’s approximately 25% increase in a hypothetical S&P 500 index would have added only $500 to that portfolio. You want to play in the big leagues? Think you can handle the emotional impact of stocks and bonds? Try having an account of $750,000 or $1,000,000. You might want to pick up a fun hobby known for reducing stress, because there are going to be times when your portfolio hits rough spots. But there is good news too. Mathematically, just a 5% return on one million dollars is a gain of $50,000, and the reward for taming the emotional torment is much greater. Sadly, Q1 2025 was a great month to lean on those stress-reducing hobbies because the S&P 500 moved 4.59% lower for the quarter (3). Additionally, the S&P 500 moved 8.66% lower from February 19th, 2025, to the end of Q1 (4). Though the 4.59% has some sting to it, moving down nearly 9% in 40 days undeniably tests the emotional resilience of an investor, and we understand this firsthand. We are excitedly moving forward with this quarterly review to discuss what moved markets, tariffs, and what opportunities may arise. Without question, Wall Street found it very difficult to plan around the Trump tariff shifts. On January 26th, 2025, President Donald Trump announced a 25% tariff on Columbian imports as President Gustavo Petro attempted to decline inbound Columbian migrants. Petro retaliated with a 25% tariff against United States made imports. Shortly after, Petro begrudgingly received the migrants, and the trade dispute 2 ended, providing our president a quick trade war win. Moore F.S. believes this quick victory would go on to fuel President Trump’s confidence using tariffs as weaponry. On February 1st, 2025, President Trump laid the foundation for a 10% China tariff and 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico. Just two days later the president would signal a 30 day pause on each of our neighbor’s 25% tariff (5). These back-and-forth movements continued off and on for much of the first quarter, with many tariff strategies subjecting only specific industries, e.g. automakers or steel producers, creating not only volatility in the broad stock market but especially within specific industries caught up in the talks. President Trump has labeled April 2nd, 2025, as “liberation day” signaling a big event. Throughout this back-and-forth, Moore Financial Solutions has made every effort not to be on the “wrong side” of the trade and has remained well rooted within our equity portfolio, when appropriate. We view, as mentioned in previous quarterly reviews, the volatility within the stock market as the “cost” or “price” paid emotionally to be able to receive the effective returns stocks could offer. In greater detail, rather than Moore F.S. attempting to time markets or predict the president’s next move and potentially being wrong, we’ll ride the storm out. Although Moore F.S. does not predict a bear market (described as a move down of 20% in the stock market), we point to the resilience of the stock market, overcoming all 29 previous bear markets and having done so rather quickly, taking an average of only 289 days to recover from the drop (6). Though we can’t rely on past market performance to guarantee its future, we believe this reaffirms our approach to using the stock market for clients with a long enough time horizon and ability to pay the emotional “cost” of seeing a portfolio move lower. Moore F.S. has theorized in past quarterly reviews, with no data to back it up, algorithmic trading (computers buying stocks at a “floor” or low point which might give the market support), and a trend of increasingly younger portfolio managers who have only seen speedy recoveries and long bull market rides might reduce the average bear market duration.
By Tyler Moore • January 23, 2025
It is with great pleasure to work as your trusted advisor for another year! We hope you and your family had a Merry Christmas and you’re headed into a Happy New Year. To the surprise of some other financial firms, the stock market created sizable gains in 2024 with the S&P 500 increasing 23.3%, ironically within 1% of the year prior’s 24.23%. Additionally, that same market index returned a modest 2.06% in the fourth quarter of 2024, with all figures mentioned not including dividends (1). With Q4 of 2024 hosting one of the biggest elections of our lives, at least as described by some, we plan to discuss how our money management strategy evolves. We proudly stayed true to our strategy and didn’t decrease our allocation to stocks, while many other firms were selling covered calls and reducing their allocation to stocks as they incorrectly predicted a downturn in the markets for 2024.  Even if you were living under a rock, you were likely informed that Donald Trump is headed back to the White House. We reference this change with the understanding that the leadership of current President Joe Biden is quite contrasting to the leadership we’ve seen from Donald Trump in the past, and his campaign promises. The Federal Reserve seemed to have had to slightly adjust their projected pace of rate cuts with the understanding that Trump will be more favorable to the economy through deregulation, corporate tax cuts, and repatriation of jobs. These factors, along with the deportation initiatives, may reignite inflation in the short term. The Center for American Progress puts the undocumented immigrant population in the United States at around 11.3 million, with 7 million of them working (2). To make matters worse, many of these jobs are considered “difficult to fill” and/or “less desirable jobs”. We believe the Federal Reserve felt the need to signal plans to slow rate reductions, after reducing rates in 2024. In September, the median projection for the end of 2025 implied four more rate cuts next year, but the median projection from December’s meeting only projects two more cuts (3). Below is the Federal Reserve’s dot plot, which is a chart that visually represents each member of the Federal Reserve's policymaking committee's projection for where they expect the federal funds rate (the benchmark interest rate) to be over the next few years.
October 1, 2024
With an election looming and the market going through what has historically been a bearish period for stocks, all eyes are on the Federal Reserve regarding their interest rate policy. The third quarter of 2024 offered positive returns for the S&P 500 of 5.53% (not including dividends) to close the quarter at 5,762.48 (1). The real narrative of Q3 is the emergence of bonds finally complementing stocks and producing a positive return, as illustrated by the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (ticker TLT) being up 6.89% (without dividends) (2). We’ll discuss our active management as well as more thoroughly discuss our fixed income strategy. Additionally, we plan to highlight allocation strategies regarding various asset classes as the Federal Reserve goes through their interest rate decrease cycle, and of course we’ll discuss potential impacts from the election. In our last quarterly review we offered, “We currently expect that rate cut to occur during the fourth quarter of this year, or slightly sooner.” This was far from a bold prediction as most of Wall Street agreed on this timing. Nonetheless, September 18th, 2024, was a huge day for the markets and Moore F.S. as the Federal Reserve reduced rates by .5% (3). However, the rate cut of .5% was slightly higher than the typical .25% cut, leaving some wondering if this was a sign the Federal Reserve should have reduced rates sooner and more gradually. As a reminder, the Federal Reserve had to aggressively increase rates to stomp down inflation that had arisen very quickly, and this rate decrease was a means to normalize rates in response to normalizing inflation data. In the opinion of Moore F.S., the bond market was not only pricing in this normal rate reduction, but additionally pricing in a recession, an event that would even more significantly decrease interest rates. In other words, as time went on without a rate decrease, some feared this meant a “hard landing” was in store for the economy because not only did Jerome Powell drive down inflation, but he potentially drove down growth by leaving rates too high for too long. Moore F.S. stayed true to our belief, and continued to voice a high likelihood of a “soft landing” in which the Federal Reserve’s timing of rate reduction is just right, or at least close enough. In this Goldilocks situation that we forecasted; Americans were earning interest income at a much greater rate given the sudden increase in rates which increases their discretionary spending. In addition, the labor market remained strong, thus keeping the economy very strong and resilient in the face of higher rates. On September 18th, 2024, Jerome Powell stated, “Our economy is strong overall and has made significant progress toward our goals over the past two years. The labor market has cooled from its formerly overheated state. Inflation has eased substantially from a peak of 7 percent to an estimated 2.2 percent as of August. We’re committed to maintaining our economy’s strength by supporting maximum employment and returning inflation to our 2 percent goal. Today, the Federal Open Market Committee decided to reduce the degree of policy restraint by lowering our policy interest rate by ½ percentage point. This decision reflects our growing confidence that with an appropriate recalibration of our policy stance, strength in the labor market can be maintained in a context of moderate growth and inflation moving sustainably down to 2 percent.” (4) We interpret this information to be straightforward and we give the Federal Reserve credit for the transparency it has given regarding policy change. In our opinion the bond market was pricing in a mild recession while the Chairman of the Federal Reserve was giving the message of confidence within the United States economy, it became the opinion of Moore F.S. that appropriate allocation changes needed to be made within our fixed income assets. On September 19th, 2024, we began the process of decreasing duration within our fixed income assets by selling our nearly million dollar position of iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (ticker TLT) and received an approximate price of $98.95 per share. TLT closed the quarter at $98.10 (5). This longer duration debt ETF was generally replaced with the Blackrock Short Duration Bond ETF (ticker NEAR). This decision was reached for two primary reasons. First, we believe that TLT has moved rapidly higher on fears of a recession, not simply the Federal Reserve’s policy change. As rates ease back up as we envision, we believe that shorter duration debt will outperform. In other words, the bond market has gotten a bit ahead of the Federal Reserve. Secondly, TLT offered a yield of about 3.4% compared to the more attractive yield of about 5.14% in NEAR. We aimed to be heavily in long duration debt while interest rates decreased, and now aim to shift into shorter duration holdings. Not all clients hold fixed income funds. Though Moore F.S. tries to stay away from interest rate prognostications, we believe the yield curve will move entirely out of the inverted stage in 2025 as the Federal Reserve moves the Fed Funds rate back to a more normal level. Currently, the curve is still inverted in some areas. We believe banks will be a significant beneficiary of the normalization in interest rates as their lending operations become more profitable. When the yield curve is inverted, profit margins tend to fall for companies that borrow cash at short-term rates and lend at long-term rates, such as community banks (6). In other words, your bank was probably not as excited as you were to see moderate term certificates of deposit paying 4.00% and mortgages written at 6.5% than they would be to see rates on their deposits earning .5% and mortgages written at 5.00%. Simply put, banks care about the spread in interest rates not one given rate. In response to a normalizing yield curve, and potential steepening of the curve, Moore F.S. clients sold broad market ETF’s and purchased Goldman Sachs (ticker GS) within the third quarter. This, like the conversation regarding TLT previously, only applied to some accounts where we viewed this action as appropriate. In addition to the interest margins improving for Goldman Sachs, we see this adjustment as an advantage to investors for two reasons. First, Goldman Sachs offers a better P/E ratio than the broad market at approximately 16. For more information on P/E ratios please see our First Quarter ’24 review in paragraph two where we discuss how P/E ratios influence our management approach. Secondly, Moore F.S. is always attempting to keep expense ratios lower by using single stocks in small weightings when appropriate. We hope this exemplifies the firm working hard to keep your expenses under control, while many other firms might simply use pre-built models, passing that higher cost on to you. We feel it is important to mention that Moore F.S. will never attempt to time markets, but rather react to public information and manage each account individually to the best of our ability. Below charts the spread between two and ten year U.S. treasury obligations, which is generally the spread analyzed The yield curve on September 30th, 2024, showing short term debt obligations paying a higher yield than long term obligations by most technicians. Historically investors have been rewarded with a higher yield for risking their money for a longer duration, but not always. Keep in mind, ultra short rates, such as the three-month treasury obligation offer 4.73% (7), and moderate term rates, such as the ten-year treasury obligation offer 3.81%, as of the last day of the quarter (8). We feel this temporary inversion is holding banks like Goldman Sachs back from their full potential. From the perspective of the stock market and global economy operating smoothly, we view the best election outcome as one with a clear winner, with conventional wisdom offering that a result that drags on for days is bad for markets. With two candidates offering quite contrasting plans and visions, we see corporations as most likely in a holding pattern, waiting for more clarity in variables such as corporate tax rates or manufacturing location incentives. We imagine these are the same corporations that have been in a holding pattern waiting for more clarity on the path of interest rates for the last couple of years. We feel that corporations benefit from stability and clarity, and when those are low, our best chance to manage portfolios appropriately is to not take a side, but rather, feel that our portfolios can benefit from either candidate winning. Once the election is passed, we will plan to craft portfolios in the fourth quarter in preparation for 2025 based on our view of the path of leadership. With another quarter passing by, I want to take a moment to thank you for your continued trust in me as your advisor and remind you that your financial goals are my professional goals. As I continually say, investing on any scale tends to be an emotional experience and I very much try to cushion that emotion for a client, if possible, without becoming too conservative. In other words, I must walk a fine line between selecting assets that blend well to potentially bring correlation or risk down in a portfolio, without including such conservative assets that reduce our chances of hitting your long-term goals. This will be my fourth U.S. presidential election while entrusted to manage assets, and my focus tends to be twofold; not try to predict a winner in my style of investing and to get clients through it. One key take away I have from listening over the years is how people have managed their own money through elections. Though I don’t have solid research or data to back it up, it is my experience that do-it yourself investors often make far too drastic of allocation changes that are far too dependent on the outcome they have predicted. I highly encourage you to take just a moment to think of someone that could benefit from the no pressure advice and strategies that Moore F.S. offers. In today’s transient labor market, everyone knows someone that has transitioned jobs and has left behind 401(k) assets. Think to yourself how those assets might perform sitting there, compared to how they might succeed over long periods of time at Moore F.S. My hope is for you and your family to have another great holiday season and a great end to 2024 between now and my next review. As always, I’m personally just a phone call away if you need anything or have any questions. Tyler A. Moore
By Tyler Moore • July 19, 2024
The party continues through the second quarter of 2024, as the S&P 500 rises another 3.92%, not including dividends (1). After a fruitful 2023, where the S&P 500 climbed 24.23%, coupled with a surprising Q1 of 2024 where it ran up another 10.158%, we felt like it would be a victory just to maintain those levels for the second quarter (2). However, the strong buying momentum of the U.S. stock market continued, as consumers remained strong despite the Federal Reserve’s policies to slow the economy with higher-than-normal interest rates. Join us as we review the financial impacts of the last quarter and discuss our forecasts for the rest of the year. Interest rates increased slightly within the second quarter, illustrated by the United States 10-year Treasury Note moving up from 4.205% to 4.402% (3). Though the Federal Reserve did not increase their rates, the treasury yields that are priced based upon supply and demand moved higher. This remains troubling for bond investors. Additionally, the largest Moore Financial Solutions’ fixed income holding, the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) moved lower for the quarter. This approximately 3% downward move from $94.62 to $91.78 decreases the total return on a balanced portfolio (4). Many Moore F.S. investors that are near their goal, such as retirement, cushion the volatility of stocks with these bonds. In a quarter where bonds moved three percent lower in value, a balanced investor (holding stocks and bonds) likely didn’t feel much of the stock market party we mentioned. We feel this interest rate increase occurred because of the continual theme that rate cuts from the Federal Reserve have been pushed farther down the road. It seems Jerome Powell is putting more weight on the risk of cutting rates too soon, and not fully beating inflation, as opposed to cutting rates too late and the economy being weighed down from rates being too high for too long. Moore F.S. has remained committed to only using fixed income and bonds when necessary. We believe investors with long time horizons and the ability to tolerate stock market volatility should remain fully allocated to stocks, which historically have provided a higher return, although we can make no guarantees for their future performance or that they can’t lose money. For investors using fixed income, our investment strategy (when appropriate) is to diversify their fixed income holdings with longer duration bond holdings, like the TLT mentioned above, and shorter duration treasury bills. We believe longer duration treasuries will gain value when Jerome Powell finally cuts interest rates. We currently expect that rate cut to occur during the fourth quarter of this year, or slightly sooner. We feel Jerome Powell isn’t comfortable with zero rate reductions for 2024. If you’re anything like us, May 16th of 2024 was a special day, we were finally able to wear our Dow 40k hats as the Dow Jones Industrial Average reached record high levels of 40,000 points. The recent stock market performance has been so productive that it only took 873 days to move from 30,000 points to 40,000 points (5). Our purpose of reflecting on these numbers is to advocate to readers of the potential to build wealth in the stock market. Additionally, we don’t particularly care for the Dow Jones Industrial Average as a benchmark as it is only comprised of 30 companies, compared to the S&P 500 holding 500 companies. However, we feel that the perspective of the stock market’s long-term ability to potentially create gains can be illustrated by comparing Dow Jones values at various times. Only about four years ago with the Covid-19 stock market scare, the Dow traded at about 20,704 in the week of March 24th, 2020, signifying a near doubling of the index since then (6). When I began my career as a financial professional with First Investors in the week of July 19th, 2012, the index traded near 12,943, seeing a better than tripling effect from then to now (7). In response to the Great Financial Crisis of ’08-’09 the Dow traded at only 6,875 in the week of March 4th, 2009 (8). It is because of these prices on these dates that we feel the stock market offers the ability to potentially ride out ups and downs and build wealth long term. To use the example of the Covid-19 scare, Moore F.S. was continually reminding clients that we believed they should stay put in equities, as opposed to the emotional reaction many investors had to sell and move to cash. We believe there is significance in reaching these emotional values so rapidly and, as we have mentioned in recent quarterly reviews, we believe confidence in markets remains at near record high levels and is increasing. To use the analogy of climbing a mountain from 20,704ft. to 40,000ft., take a moment and look around and be proud of your accomplishment. If you’re new to Moore F.S. you might not be entirely aware of our strategy as it relates to investment holdings. Our aim is to keep your investment holdings’ costs very low, and not, for example try to generate revenue on another 1% mutual fund charge. Instead of higher cost mutual funds, Moore F.S. strives to use exchange traded funds, such as our largest holdings the iShares Core S&P 500 ETF by Blackrock (ticker IVV). This funds’ expense ratio is only .03% (9). To take that one step farther Moore F.S. uses single stocks (no expense ratio) if the situation is appropriate and allows. In March, Moore F.S. added the position of Natural Grocers (NGVC) to nearly all our managed accounts in optimism of the company’s position moving forward. NGVC moved higher in Q2 to close June 28th, 2024, at $21.20 (10). We feel strongly about the future growth potential of NGVC, particularly their ability to grow their own line of products and price them accurately and with competitive advantage. Sadly, our largest single stock holding, Builders First Source Inc. (BLDR) moved approximately 33.63% lower in the second quarter (11). If you’ve been around a while you remember Moore F.S. began buying the BLDR in the mid to low 40’s back in 2021 and have continued to buy at virtually all levels. This movement lower in the BLDR creates even more reasons to hold the stock in our opinion, as the P/E ratio has dipped below 12 (12). We feel that the Federal Reserve not having the ability to print more houses signifies great opportunities in the BLDR. Moreover, traders seem to have been overly cruel to the BLDR, weighing higher interest rates and a hunger for short-term gains in other areas of the market, such as technology. With this quarter seeing the broad stock market at higher levels than last quarter, all eyes remain on the Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Traders hope that he will hint at whether rate cuts will begin in the third or fourth quarter of the year, with very few expecting that rate cut to come in 2025. My goal remains to manage every account as your advisor in a unique way and ultimately not be setting up portfolios to “need” rate cuts urgently. With an election year, the expectation of market volatility is high, and I personally encourage you to give me a call if you would like to discuss my strategy for your account or have someone you care about that you’d like to refer to the firm. To use the analogy given above, I’m proud to stand here at 40,000ft and it is with great pride to be your trusted partner when it relates to your valuable goals.
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Together, let’s create a plan.

You need a partner who will listen to your needs. You need someone who can help you take your ideas, and your long-term goals, and make a plan that could turn them into a reality. 
That’s where we come in. 

Reach out. Let’s get started.
CONTACT US

Moore Financial Solutions is always available for Zoom, Skype and phone meetings.

What can Moore Financial Solutions offer you?

What can Moore Financial Solutions offer you?


Retirement Planning

Fiduciary Investment Management

Retirement Planning

Annuity & Income Planning

Fiduciary Investment Management

Life Insurance & Disability Strategies

Life Insurance & Disability Strategies

Annuity & Income Planning