Moore Financial Solutions 2nd Quarter 2024

Tyler Moore • July 19, 2024

The party continues through the second quarter of 2024, as the S&P 500 rises another 3.92%, not including dividends (1). After a fruitful 2023, where the S&P 500 climbed 24.23%, coupled with a surprising Q1 of 2024 where it ran up another 10.158%, we felt like it would be a victory just to maintain those levels for the second quarter (2). However, the strong buying momentum of the U.S. stock market continued, as consumers remained strong despite the Federal Reserve’s policies to slow the economy with higher-than-normal interest rates. Join us as we review the financial impacts of the last quarter and discuss our forecasts for the rest of the year.


Interest rates increased slightly within the second quarter, illustrated by the United States 10-year Treasury Note moving up from 4.205% to 4.402% (3). Though the Federal Reserve did not increase their rates, the treasury yields that are priced based upon supply and demand moved higher. This remains troubling for bond investors. Additionally, the largest Moore Financial Solutions’ fixed income holding, the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) moved lower for the quarter. This approximately 3% downward move from $94.62 to $91.78 decreases the total return on a balanced portfolio (4). Many Moore F.S. investors that are near their goal, such as retirement, cushion the volatility of stocks with these bonds. In a quarter where bonds moved three percent lower in value, a balanced investor (holding stocks and bonds) likely didn’t feel much of the stock market party we mentioned. We feel this interest rate increase occurred because of the continual theme that rate cuts from the Federal Reserve have been pushed farther down the road. It seems Jerome Powell is putting more weight on the risk of cutting rates too soon, and not fully beating inflation, as opposed to cutting rates too late and the economy being weighed down from rates being too high for too long. Moore F.S. has remained committed to only using fixed income and bonds

when necessary. We believe investors with long time horizons and the ability to tolerate stock market volatility should remain fully allocated to stocks, which historically have provided a higher return, although we can make no guarantees for their future performance or that they can’t lose money. For investors using fixed income, our investment strategy (when appropriate) is to diversify their fixed income holdings with longer duration bond holdings, like the TLT mentioned above, and shorter duration treasury bills. We believe longer duration treasuries will gain value when Jerome Powell finally cuts interest rates. We currently expect that rate cut to occur during the

fourth quarter of this year, or slightly sooner. We feel Jerome Powell isn’t comfortable with zero rate reductions for 2024.


If you’re anything like us, May 16th of 2024 was a special day, we were finally able to wear our Dow 40k hats as the Dow Jones Industrial Average reached record high levels of 40,000 points. The recent stock market performance has been so productive that it only took 873 days to move from 30,000 points to 40,000 points (5). Our purpose of reflecting on these numbers is to advocate to readers of the potential to build wealth in the stock market. Additionally, we don’t particularly care for the Dow Jones Industrial Average as a benchmark as it is only comprised of 30 companies, compared to the S&P 500 holding 500 companies. However, we feel that the perspective of the stock market’s long-term ability to potentially create gains can be illustrated by comparing Dow Jones values at various times. Only about four years ago with the Covid-19 stock market scare, the Dow traded at about 20,704 in the week of March 24th, 2020, signifying a near doubling of the index since then (6). When I began my career as a financial professional with First Investors in the week of July 19th, 2012, the index traded near 12,943, seeing a better than tripling effect from then to now (7). In response to the Great Financial Crisis of ’08-’09

the Dow traded at only 6,875 in the week of March 4th, 2009 (8). It is because of these prices on these dates that we feel the stock market offers the ability to potentially ride out ups and downs and build wealth long term. To use the example of the Covid-19 scare, Moore F.S. was continually reminding clients that we believed they should stay put in equities, as opposed to the emotional reaction many investors had to sell and move to cash. We believe there is significance in reaching these emotional values so rapidly and, as we have mentioned in recent quarterly reviews, we believe confidence in markets remains at near record high levels and is increasing. To use the analogy of

climbing a mountain from 20,704ft. to 40,000ft., take a moment and look around and be proud of your accomplishment.


If you’re new to Moore F.S. you might not be entirely aware of our strategy as it relates to investment holdings. Our aim is to keep your investment holdings’ costs very low, and not, for example try to generate revenue on another 1% mutual fund charge. Instead of higher cost mutual funds, Moore F.S. strives to use exchange traded funds, such as our largest holdings the iShares Core S&P 500 ETF by Blackrock (ticker IVV). This funds’ expense ratio is only .03% (9). To take that one step farther Moore F.S. uses single stocks (no expense

ratio) if the situation is appropriate and allows. In March, Moore F.S. added the position of Natural Grocers (NGVC) to nearly all our managed accounts in optimism of the company’s position moving forward. NGVC moved higher in Q2 to close June 28th, 2024, at $21.20 (10). We feel strongly about the future growth potential of NGVC, particularly their ability to grow their own line of products and price them accurately and with competitive advantage. Sadly, our largest single stock holding, Builders First Source Inc. (BLDR) moved approximately 33.63% lower in the second quarter (11). If you’ve been around a while you remember Moore F.S. began buying the

BLDR in the mid to low 40’s back in 2021 and have continued to buy at virtually all levels. This movement lower in the BLDR creates even more reasons to hold the stock in our opinion, as the P/E ratio has dipped below 12 (12). We feel that the Federal Reserve not having the ability to print more houses signifies great opportunities in the BLDR. Moreover, traders seem to have been overly cruel to the BLDR, weighing higher interest rates and a hunger for short-term gains in other areas of the market, such as technology.


With this quarter seeing the broad stock market at higher levels than last quarter, all eyes remain on the Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Traders hope that he will hint at whether rate cuts will begin in the third or fourth quarter of the year, with very few expecting that rate cut to come in 2025. My goal remains to manage every account as your advisor in a unique way and ultimately not be setting up portfolios to “need” rate cuts urgently. With an election year, the expectation of market volatility is high, and I personally encourage you to give me a call if you would like to discuss my strategy for your account or have someone you care about that you’d like

to refer to the firm. To use the analogy given above, I’m proud to stand here at 40,000ft and it is with great pride to be your trusted partner when it relates to your valuable goals.

Did you know? Moore Financial Solutions offers unique/custom-built insurance solutions. Does anything keep you up at night that we could help fix? If so give us a call and we’ll help find you the best policy rates and options as we shop the open market of providers, all while offering our zero-pressure sales process. This includes Life Insurance, Disability Income Insurance, and Long-Term Care Insurance. Let’s review your policy and search for Moore Solutions today!


1. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history/

2. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history/

3. https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/tmubmusd10y?countrycode=bx&mod=home-page

4. https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/tlt/charts?mod=mw_quote_advanced

5. https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/djia

6. https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/djia

7. https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/djia

8. https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/djia

9. https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/ivv/charts?mod=mw_quote_advanced

10. https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/ngvc/charts?mod=mw_quote_advanced

11. https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/bldr/charts?mod=mw_quote_advanced

12. https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/bldr/charts?mod=mw_quote_advanced


This material has been prepared for information and educational purposes and should not be construed as a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any investment. The content is developed from sources believed to be reliable. This information is not intended to be investment, legal or tax advice. Investing involves risk, including the loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in a

period of declining values. Past performance may not be used to predict future results. Investment advisory services offered by duly registered

individuals on behalf of CreativeOne Wealth, LLC a Registered Investment Adviser. CreativeOne Wealth, LLC and Moore Financial Solutions

are unaffiliated entities. Licensed Insurance Professional. Insurance product guarantees are backed by the financial strength and claims-paying

ability of the issuing company.

Moore Financial Solutions 3rd Quarter 2025

By Tyler Moore • October 14, 2025
With many asset classes moving higher in Q3 we hope you were able to take advantage within your account! I’m pleased to be able to review an S&P 500 that was able to maintain a generally upward trend since April 8th, 2025, a day that would not so ironically be the only closing price below 5,000 so far this year, an important statistic we will discuss in greater detail later. As investors weighed a decreasing rate environment in which the Federal Reserve reduced rates, and a weakening labor market, the S&P 500 logged a 7.79% increase (1). Fixed Income rallied with the Moore F.S. largest bond holding (iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF) increasing about 1.27% within Q3 (as of 09/30/25) and paying another nearly 1% dividend for the quarter (2). With stocks and bonds rallying together over the last quarter, I’ll discuss market moving events within the quarter, lay out my opinion of how investors can consider deploying capital in a highly valued market, provide trading ideas, and discuss our thoughts on why U.S. markets are priced at a premium globally. Tasked with fiduciary* management of hundreds of accounts, Moore F.S. is always strategic about your investment holdings, and attempts to strike a solid balance of risk and reward within each account. The gray-haired veteran’s account looks far different from the client born this side of the new millennium. To support this strategy, we believe that interest rate policy and trajectory can be the easiest variable to monitor regarding the decision making of portfolio construction, which Moore F.S. is proud to do “in house”, instead of using high-cost mutual funds for example. This Exchange Traded Fund oriented strategy typically results in the older client’s asset allocation being constructed of stocks and bonds strategically, and the client of the “new millennium” hosting strategy that is more related to the capitalization of stocks. In other words, in the average environment, Moore F.S. tilts younger portfolios more to small caps (using smaller companies instead of the large ones like you’ll find in the S&P 500). To oversimplify, Moore F.S. set portfolios up to help them better perform when rates fall. We feel strongly that the active management of passive ETF’s can help ensure you’ll have solid asset allocation without using actively managed mutual funds which typically lag.

Moore Financial Solutions 2nd Quarter 2025

By Tyler Moore • July 14, 2025
The stock market carousel continued in the second quarter of 2025, with some investors jumping off, while others jumped aboard. Aiming for a solid return to follow a negative 4.59% Q1, the S&P 500 slated a 10.57% return for our second quarter (1). During this most recent quarter, I leaned on my beliefs mentioned fifteen months ago in my Q1 2024 Moore Financial Solutions review; “we feel that investors unknowingly become more faithful in broad U.S. equities to recover after a downturn.” In that previous review I offered a thought that investors have become more trusting that markets will recover after seeing it happen in the 29 historical bear markets, as compared to the first ever bear market, for example. Though my continued theory is that the average bear market duration will decrease over time (with younger investors portfolio managing more assets and algorithmic trading increasing), even I was surprised by the minor 83-day bear market speed bump that the S&P 500 shook off, given that prior to this the average bear market was 289 days (2). The S&P 500 would go on to close Q2 both positive for the year and at record highs. In this quarterly review we’ll look at how bear markets are rarely the same and how our strategy must evolve. We’ll discuss a stubbornly high interest rate, our positioning for potential interest rate decreases, and global matters affecting the market. It’s been said for years that the stock market takes the escalator up and the elevator down. But why? Simply put, this is the result of the driving forces of selling and buying stocks. If investors are optimistic, they’ll commonly allocate to the stock market in an attempt to grow their money. But too much of this buying is deemed greedy and is a great evil of long-term investing. If investors, however, are fearful, they’ll sell their stocks, (at least the less emotionally committed, shorter term investors), driving the price of stocks lower. We believe Q2 is a great example of the battle between fear and greed, and the only real concern is being wrong on predicting short-term market movements. Over the first six trading days of Q2, investors sharply drove the S&P 500 about 11.2% lower, with panic fueled by President Donald Trump’s April 2nd liberation day announcements (3). A resilient S&P 500 would heal the 11.2% wound in only 17 trading days, leaving behind investors who may have been scared out of the market near April 8th closing lows on the S&P 500 of 4,982.77 (4). This would be the first and only closing price below 5,000 on the S&P 500 from April 20th, 2024, to today’s July 1st, 2025, date. In our opinion, this supports our thoughts regarding algorithmic trading, which likely conducted heavy buying at levels of support below 5,000. April 9th would serve as the third largest one-day gain for the S&P 500 in history, increasing by about 9.5% (5). We view the sudden announcements and emotional reactions in the stock market as a great reason to stay the course in our investments. By staying focused on our long-term perspective, while short-term winners and losers argue over the current price, we’ll be less likely to panic and instead willing to accept an average return, rather than attempt to outsmart the market. Moore F.S. was able to capitalize in some situations by selling bonds and buying stocks, when appropriate. While it is not fully determined who lost what, it is implied that a portion of investors locked in losses in Q2, by panic selling with the herd mentality near April 8th lows. These investors would, as a result, miss out on what would become a fruitful Q2 for those willing to wait the required 84 days and not be emotionally rattled.
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