Moore Financial Solutions 2nd Quarter 2024

Tyler Moore • July 19, 2024

The party continues through the second quarter of 2024, as the S&P 500 rises another 3.92%, not including dividends (1). After a fruitful 2023, where the S&P 500 climbed 24.23%, coupled with a surprising Q1 of 2024 where it ran up another 10.158%, we felt like it would be a victory just to maintain those levels for the second quarter (2). However, the strong buying momentum of the U.S. stock market continued, as consumers remained strong despite the Federal Reserve’s policies to slow the economy with higher-than-normal interest rates. Join us as we review the financial impacts of the last quarter and discuss our forecasts for the rest of the year.


Interest rates increased slightly within the second quarter, illustrated by the United States 10-year Treasury Note moving up from 4.205% to 4.402% (3). Though the Federal Reserve did not increase their rates, the treasury yields that are priced based upon supply and demand moved higher. This remains troubling for bond investors. Additionally, the largest Moore Financial Solutions’ fixed income holding, the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) moved lower for the quarter. This approximately 3% downward move from $94.62 to $91.78 decreases the total return on a balanced portfolio (4). Many Moore F.S. investors that are near their goal, such as retirement, cushion the volatility of stocks with these bonds. In a quarter where bonds moved three percent lower in value, a balanced investor (holding stocks and bonds) likely didn’t feel much of the stock market party we mentioned. We feel this interest rate increase occurred because of the continual theme that rate cuts from the Federal Reserve have been pushed farther down the road. It seems Jerome Powell is putting more weight on the risk of cutting rates too soon, and not fully beating inflation, as opposed to cutting rates too late and the economy being weighed down from rates being too high for too long. Moore F.S. has remained committed to only using fixed income and bonds

when necessary. We believe investors with long time horizons and the ability to tolerate stock market volatility should remain fully allocated to stocks, which historically have provided a higher return, although we can make no guarantees for their future performance or that they can’t lose money. For investors using fixed income, our investment strategy (when appropriate) is to diversify their fixed income holdings with longer duration bond holdings, like the TLT mentioned above, and shorter duration treasury bills. We believe longer duration treasuries will gain value when Jerome Powell finally cuts interest rates. We currently expect that rate cut to occur during the

fourth quarter of this year, or slightly sooner. We feel Jerome Powell isn’t comfortable with zero rate reductions for 2024.


If you’re anything like us, May 16th of 2024 was a special day, we were finally able to wear our Dow 40k hats as the Dow Jones Industrial Average reached record high levels of 40,000 points. The recent stock market performance has been so productive that it only took 873 days to move from 30,000 points to 40,000 points (5). Our purpose of reflecting on these numbers is to advocate to readers of the potential to build wealth in the stock market. Additionally, we don’t particularly care for the Dow Jones Industrial Average as a benchmark as it is only comprised of 30 companies, compared to the S&P 500 holding 500 companies. However, we feel that the perspective of the stock market’s long-term ability to potentially create gains can be illustrated by comparing Dow Jones values at various times. Only about four years ago with the Covid-19 stock market scare, the Dow traded at about 20,704 in the week of March 24th, 2020, signifying a near doubling of the index since then (6). When I began my career as a financial professional with First Investors in the week of July 19th, 2012, the index traded near 12,943, seeing a better than tripling effect from then to now (7). In response to the Great Financial Crisis of ’08-’09

the Dow traded at only 6,875 in the week of March 4th, 2009 (8). It is because of these prices on these dates that we feel the stock market offers the ability to potentially ride out ups and downs and build wealth long term. To use the example of the Covid-19 scare, Moore F.S. was continually reminding clients that we believed they should stay put in equities, as opposed to the emotional reaction many investors had to sell and move to cash. We believe there is significance in reaching these emotional values so rapidly and, as we have mentioned in recent quarterly reviews, we believe confidence in markets remains at near record high levels and is increasing. To use the analogy of

climbing a mountain from 20,704ft. to 40,000ft., take a moment and look around and be proud of your accomplishment.


If you’re new to Moore F.S. you might not be entirely aware of our strategy as it relates to investment holdings. Our aim is to keep your investment holdings’ costs very low, and not, for example try to generate revenue on another 1% mutual fund charge. Instead of higher cost mutual funds, Moore F.S. strives to use exchange traded funds, such as our largest holdings the iShares Core S&P 500 ETF by Blackrock (ticker IVV). This funds’ expense ratio is only .03% (9). To take that one step farther Moore F.S. uses single stocks (no expense

ratio) if the situation is appropriate and allows. In March, Moore F.S. added the position of Natural Grocers (NGVC) to nearly all our managed accounts in optimism of the company’s position moving forward. NGVC moved higher in Q2 to close June 28th, 2024, at $21.20 (10). We feel strongly about the future growth potential of NGVC, particularly their ability to grow their own line of products and price them accurately and with competitive advantage. Sadly, our largest single stock holding, Builders First Source Inc. (BLDR) moved approximately 33.63% lower in the second quarter (11). If you’ve been around a while you remember Moore F.S. began buying the

BLDR in the mid to low 40’s back in 2021 and have continued to buy at virtually all levels. This movement lower in the BLDR creates even more reasons to hold the stock in our opinion, as the P/E ratio has dipped below 12 (12). We feel that the Federal Reserve not having the ability to print more houses signifies great opportunities in the BLDR. Moreover, traders seem to have been overly cruel to the BLDR, weighing higher interest rates and a hunger for short-term gains in other areas of the market, such as technology.


With this quarter seeing the broad stock market at higher levels than last quarter, all eyes remain on the Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Traders hope that he will hint at whether rate cuts will begin in the third or fourth quarter of the year, with very few expecting that rate cut to come in 2025. My goal remains to manage every account as your advisor in a unique way and ultimately not be setting up portfolios to “need” rate cuts urgently. With an election year, the expectation of market volatility is high, and I personally encourage you to give me a call if you would like to discuss my strategy for your account or have someone you care about that you’d like

to refer to the firm. To use the analogy given above, I’m proud to stand here at 40,000ft and it is with great pride to be your trusted partner when it relates to your valuable goals.

Did you know? Moore Financial Solutions offers unique/custom-built insurance solutions. Does anything keep you up at night that we could help fix? If so give us a call and we’ll help find you the best policy rates and options as we shop the open market of providers, all while offering our zero-pressure sales process. This includes Life Insurance, Disability Income Insurance, and Long-Term Care Insurance. Let’s review your policy and search for Moore Solutions today!


1. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history/

2. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history/

3. https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/tmubmusd10y?countrycode=bx&mod=home-page

4. https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/tlt/charts?mod=mw_quote_advanced

5. https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/djia

6. https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/djia

7. https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/djia

8. https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/djia

9. https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/ivv/charts?mod=mw_quote_advanced

10. https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/ngvc/charts?mod=mw_quote_advanced

11. https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/bldr/charts?mod=mw_quote_advanced

12. https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/bldr/charts?mod=mw_quote_advanced


This material has been prepared for information and educational purposes and should not be construed as a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any investment. The content is developed from sources believed to be reliable. This information is not intended to be investment, legal or tax advice. Investing involves risk, including the loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in a

period of declining values. Past performance may not be used to predict future results. Investment advisory services offered by duly registered

individuals on behalf of CreativeOne Wealth, LLC a Registered Investment Adviser. CreativeOne Wealth, LLC and Moore Financial Solutions

are unaffiliated entities. Licensed Insurance Professional. Insurance product guarantees are backed by the financial strength and claims-paying

ability of the issuing company.

Moore Financial Solutions 1st Quarter 2025

By Tyler Moore • April 10, 2025
About thirteen years ago when I started my career as a Financial Services Professional, I was almost instantly astute to the number one factor that determines client success. Of course, this determination was solely my own opinion. I’ve never turned on CNBC and heard scientific data backing it and likely never will. You can nearly ignore researching passive management vs. active management, throw out a comparison of exchange traded funds vs. mutual funds, and forget all about whether a Roth IRA or Traditional IRA suits you best. I believe the number one determinate of success that a client must have is “Proper Expectations”. It is by no coincidence that I believe Moore Financial Solutions clients have extremely reasonable, and ultimately the proper, expectations regarding investing. Investing long term is no casino, rather a patient approach to creating current income and future earnings. Prior to gaining licensure to be on your side financially, I know people that panicked and sold their entire portfolio and moved to cash positions in the Great Recession of 2008-09. They told the story years later to me regarding the vast missed opportunity and harm in locking in the losses. Imagine an investor panicking in Q1 of 2009 and selling stocks below 700 on the S&P 500, an index that is about eight times higher today at 5,635 (1). The S&P 500 would see gains of over 75% in the eleven months to follow, peaking this client’s FOMO and desire to get back into the market, only to sharply drop 16% over the next two months (2). My advice to you, and the number one way I can help you with your investment success, continue not being like this example investor. But rather, stay rooted in your investment philosophy. Realistically, the stages of someone’s investment life are humorous. We typically have little money early on, and it is easy to overcome the emotional impact from the money movement (a 10% decline in a portfolio of $2,500 might equate to a couple days’ earnings). But the problem is, there aren’t ample funds in that portfolio to provide life-changing growth either. For example, last year’s approximately 25% increase in a hypothetical S&P 500 index would have added only $500 to that portfolio. You want to play in the big leagues? Think you can handle the emotional impact of stocks and bonds? Try having an account of $750,000 or $1,000,000. You might want to pick up a fun hobby known for reducing stress, because there are going to be times when your portfolio hits rough spots. But there is good news too. Mathematically, just a 5% return on one million dollars is a gain of $50,000, and the reward for taming the emotional torment is much greater. Sadly, Q1 2025 was a great month to lean on those stress-reducing hobbies because the S&P 500 moved 4.59% lower for the quarter (3). Additionally, the S&P 500 moved 8.66% lower from February 19th, 2025, to the end of Q1 (4). Though the 4.59% has some sting to it, moving down nearly 9% in 40 days undeniably tests the emotional resilience of an investor, and we understand this firsthand. We are excitedly moving forward with this quarterly review to discuss what moved markets, tariffs, and what opportunities may arise. Without question, Wall Street found it very difficult to plan around the Trump tariff shifts. On January 26th, 2025, President Donald Trump announced a 25% tariff on Columbian imports as President Gustavo Petro attempted to decline inbound Columbian migrants. Petro retaliated with a 25% tariff against United States made imports. Shortly after, Petro begrudgingly received the migrants, and the trade dispute 2 ended, providing our president a quick trade war win. Moore F.S. believes this quick victory would go on to fuel President Trump’s confidence using tariffs as weaponry. On February 1st, 2025, President Trump laid the foundation for a 10% China tariff and 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico. Just two days later the president would signal a 30 day pause on each of our neighbor’s 25% tariff (5). These back-and-forth movements continued off and on for much of the first quarter, with many tariff strategies subjecting only specific industries, e.g. automakers or steel producers, creating not only volatility in the broad stock market but especially within specific industries caught up in the talks. President Trump has labeled April 2nd, 2025, as “liberation day” signaling a big event. Throughout this back-and-forth, Moore Financial Solutions has made every effort not to be on the “wrong side” of the trade and has remained well rooted within our equity portfolio, when appropriate. We view, as mentioned in previous quarterly reviews, the volatility within the stock market as the “cost” or “price” paid emotionally to be able to receive the effective returns stocks could offer. In greater detail, rather than Moore F.S. attempting to time markets or predict the president’s next move and potentially being wrong, we’ll ride the storm out. Although Moore F.S. does not predict a bear market (described as a move down of 20% in the stock market), we point to the resilience of the stock market, overcoming all 29 previous bear markets and having done so rather quickly, taking an average of only 289 days to recover from the drop (6). Though we can’t rely on past market performance to guarantee its future, we believe this reaffirms our approach to using the stock market for clients with a long enough time horizon and ability to pay the emotional “cost” of seeing a portfolio move lower. Moore F.S. has theorized in past quarterly reviews, with no data to back it up, algorithmic trading (computers buying stocks at a “floor” or low point which might give the market support), and a trend of increasingly younger portfolio managers who have only seen speedy recoveries and long bull market rides might reduce the average bear market duration.

Moore Financial Solutions 4th Quarter 2024

By Tyler Moore • January 23, 2025
It is with great pleasure to work as your trusted advisor for another year! We hope you and your family had a Merry Christmas and you’re headed into a Happy New Year. To the surprise of some other financial firms, the stock market created sizable gains in 2024 with the S&P 500 increasing 23.3%, ironically within 1% of the year prior’s 24.23%. Additionally, that same market index returned a modest 2.06% in the fourth quarter of 2024, with all figures mentioned not including dividends (1). With Q4 of 2024 hosting one of the biggest elections of our lives, at least as described by some, we plan to discuss how our money management strategy evolves. We proudly stayed true to our strategy and didn’t decrease our allocation to stocks, while many other firms were selling covered calls and reducing their allocation to stocks as they incorrectly predicted a downturn in the markets for 2024.  Even if you were living under a rock, you were likely informed that Donald Trump is headed back to the White House. We reference this change with the understanding that the leadership of current President Joe Biden is quite contrasting to the leadership we’ve seen from Donald Trump in the past, and his campaign promises. The Federal Reserve seemed to have had to slightly adjust their projected pace of rate cuts with the understanding that Trump will be more favorable to the economy through deregulation, corporate tax cuts, and repatriation of jobs. These factors, along with the deportation initiatives, may reignite inflation in the short term. The Center for American Progress puts the undocumented immigrant population in the United States at around 11.3 million, with 7 million of them working (2). To make matters worse, many of these jobs are considered “difficult to fill” and/or “less desirable jobs”. We believe the Federal Reserve felt the need to signal plans to slow rate reductions, after reducing rates in 2024. In September, the median projection for the end of 2025 implied four more rate cuts next year, but the median projection from December’s meeting only projects two more cuts (3). Below is the Federal Reserve’s dot plot, which is a chart that visually represents each member of the Federal Reserve's policymaking committee's projection for where they expect the federal funds rate (the benchmark interest rate) to be over the next few years.
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