Moore Financial Solutions 3rd Quarter 2024

October 1, 2024

With an election looming and the market going through what has historically been a bearish period for

stocks, all eyes are on the Federal Reserve regarding their interest rate policy. The third quarter of 2024 offered

positive returns for the S&P 500 of 5.53% (not including dividends) to close the quarter at 5,762.48 (1). The real

narrative of Q3 is the emergence of bonds finally complementing stocks and producing a positive return, as

illustrated by the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (ticker TLT) being up 6.89% (without dividends) (2). We’ll

discuss our active management as well as more thoroughly discuss our fixed income strategy. Additionally, we

plan to highlight allocation strategies regarding various asset classes as the Federal Reserve goes through their

interest rate decrease cycle, and of course we’ll discuss potential impacts from the election.

In our last quarterly review we offered, “We currently expect that rate cut to occur during the fourth

quarter of this year, or slightly sooner.” This was far from a bold prediction as most of Wall Street agreed on this

timing. Nonetheless, September 18th, 2024, was a huge day for the markets and Moore F.S. as the Federal Reserve

reduced rates by .5% (3). However, the rate cut of .5% was slightly higher than the typical .25% cut, leaving some

wondering if this was a sign the Federal Reserve should have reduced rates sooner and more gradually. As a

reminder, the Federal Reserve had to aggressively increase rates to stomp down inflation that had arisen very

quickly, and this rate decrease was a means to normalize rates in response to normalizing inflation data. In the

opinion of Moore F.S., the bond market was not only pricing in this normal rate reduction, but additionally pricing

in a recession, an event that would even more significantly decrease interest rates. In other words, as time went on

without a rate decrease, some feared this meant a “hard landing” was in store for the economy because not only did

Jerome Powell drive down inflation, but he potentially drove down growth by leaving rates too high for too long.

Moore F.S. stayed true to our belief, and continued to voice a high likelihood of a “soft landing” in which the

Federal Reserve’s timing of rate reduction is just right, or at least close enough. In this Goldilocks situation that we

forecasted; Americans were earning interest income at a much greater rate given the sudden increase in rates which

increases their discretionary spending. In addition, the labor market remained strong, thus keeping the economy

very strong and resilient in the face of higher rates. On September 18th, 2024, Jerome Powell stated, “Our economy

is strong overall and has made significant progress toward our goals over the past two years. The labor market has

cooled from its formerly overheated state. Inflation has eased substantially from a peak of 7 percent to an estimated

2.2 percent as of August. We’re committed to maintaining our economy’s strength by supporting maximum

employment and returning inflation to our 2 percent goal. Today, the Federal Open Market Committee decided to

reduce the degree of policy restraint by lowering our policy interest rate by ½ percentage point. This decision

reflects our growing confidence that with an appropriate recalibration of our policy stance, strength in the labor

market can be maintained in a context of moderate growth and inflation moving sustainably down to 2 percent.” (4)

We interpret this information to be straightforward and we give the Federal Reserve credit for the transparency it

has given regarding policy change.

In our opinion the bond market was pricing in a mild recession while the Chairman of the Federal Reserve

was giving the message of confidence within the United States economy, it became the opinion of Moore F.S. that

appropriate allocation changes needed to be made within our fixed income assets. On September 19th, 2024, we

began the process of decreasing duration within our fixed income assets by selling our nearly million dollar

position of iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (ticker TLT) and received an approximate price of $98.95 per

share. TLT closed the quarter at $98.10 (5). This longer duration debt ETF was generally replaced with the

Blackrock Short Duration Bond ETF (ticker NEAR). This decision was reached for two primary reasons. First, we

believe that TLT has moved rapidly higher on fears of a recession, not simply the Federal Reserve’s policy change.

As rates ease back up as we envision, we believe that shorter duration debt will outperform. In other words, the

bond market has gotten a bit ahead of the Federal Reserve. Secondly, TLT offered a yield of about 3.4% compared

to the more attractive yield of about 5.14% in NEAR. We aimed to be heavily in long duration debt while interest

rates decreased, and now aim to shift into shorter duration holdings. Not all clients hold fixed income funds.

Though Moore F.S. tries to stay away from interest rate prognostications, we believe the yield curve will

move entirely out of the inverted stage in 2025 as the Federal Reserve moves the Fed Funds rate back to a more

normal level. Currently, the curve is still inverted in some areas. We believe banks will be a significant beneficiary

of the normalization in interest rates as their lending operations become more profitable. When the yield curve is

inverted, profit margins tend to fall for companies that borrow cash at short-term rates and lend at long-term rates,

such as community banks (6). In other words, your bank was probably not as excited as you were to see moderate

term certificates of deposit paying 4.00% and mortgages written at 6.5% than they would be to see rates on their

deposits earning .5% and mortgages written at 5.00%. Simply put, banks care about the spread in interest rates not

one given rate. In response to a normalizing yield curve, and potential steepening of the curve, Moore F.S. clients

sold broad market ETF’s and purchased Goldman Sachs (ticker GS) within the third quarter. This, like the

conversation regarding TLT previously, only applied to some accounts where we viewed this action as appropriate.

In addition to the interest margins improving for Goldman Sachs, we see this adjustment as an advantage to

investors for two reasons. First, Goldman Sachs offers a better P/E ratio than the broad market at approximately

16. For more information on P/E ratios please see our First Quarter ’24 review in paragraph two where we discuss

how P/E ratios influence our management approach. Secondly, Moore F.S. is always attempting to keep expense

ratios lower by using single stocks in small weightings when appropriate. We hope this exemplifies the firm

working hard to keep your expenses under control, while many other firms might simply use pre-built models,

passing that higher cost on to you. We feel it is important to mention that Moore F.S. will never attempt to time

markets, but rather react to public information and manage each account individually to the best of our ability.

Below charts the spread between two and ten year U.S. treasury obligations, which is generally the spread analyzed

The yield curve on September 30th, 2024, showing short term debt obligations paying a higher yield than long term obligations

by most technicians. Historically investors have been rewarded with a higher yield for risking their money for a

longer duration, but not always. Keep in mind, ultra short rates, such as the three-month treasury obligation offer

4.73% (7), and moderate term rates, such as the ten-year treasury obligation offer 3.81%, as of the last day of the

quarter (8). We feel this temporary inversion is holding banks like Goldman Sachs back from their full potential.

From the perspective of the stock market and global economy operating smoothly, we view the best

election outcome as one with a clear winner, with conventional wisdom offering that a result that drags on for days

is bad for markets. With two candidates offering quite contrasting plans and visions, we see corporations as most

likely in a holding pattern, waiting for more clarity in variables such as corporate tax rates or manufacturing

location incentives. We imagine these are the same corporations that have been in a holding pattern waiting for

more clarity on the path of interest rates for the last couple of years. We feel that corporations benefit from stability

and clarity, and when those are low, our best chance to manage portfolios appropriately is to not take a side, but

rather, feel that our portfolios can benefit from either candidate winning. Once the election is passed, we will plan

to craft portfolios in the fourth quarter in preparation for 2025 based on our view of the path of leadership.

With another quarter passing by, I want to take a moment to thank you for your continued trust in me as

your advisor and remind you that your financial goals are my professional goals. As I continually say, investing on

any scale tends to be an emotional experience and I very much try to cushion that emotion for a client, if possible,

without becoming too conservative. In other words, I must walk a fine line between selecting assets that blend well

to potentially bring correlation or risk down in a portfolio, without including such conservative assets that reduce

our chances of hitting your long-term goals. This will be my fourth U.S. presidential election while entrusted to

manage assets, and my focus tends to be twofold; not try to predict a winner in my style of investing and to get

clients through it. One key take away I have from listening over the years is how people have managed their own

money through elections. Though I don’t have solid research or data to back it up, it is my experience that do-it

yourself investors often make far too drastic of allocation changes that are far too dependent on the outcome they

have predicted. I highly encourage you to take just a moment to think of someone that could benefit from the no

pressure advice and strategies that Moore F.S. offers. In today’s transient labor market, everyone knows someone

that has transitioned jobs and has left behind 401(k) assets. Think to yourself how those assets might perform

sitting there, compared to how they might succeed over long periods of time at Moore F.S. My hope is for you and

your family to have another great holiday season and a great end to 2024 between now and my next review. As

always, I’m personally just a phone call away if you need anything or have any questions.

Tyler A. Moore

Did you know? Moore Financial Solutions offers unique/custom-built insurance solutions. Does anything keep you up at night that we could help fix? If so give us a call and we’ll help find you the best policy rates and options as we shop the open market of providers, all while offering our zero-pressure sales process. This includes Life Insurance, Disability Income Insurance, and Long-Term Care Insurance. Let’s review your policy and search for Moore Solutions today!

This material has been prepared for information and educational purposes and should not be construed as a solicitation for the purchase or sale

of any investment. The content is developed from sources believed to be reliable. This information is not intended to be investment, legal or

tax advice. Investing involves risk, including the loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in a

period of declining values. Past performance may not be used to predict future results. Investment advisory services offered by duly registered

individuals on behalf of CreativeOne Wealth, LLC a Registered Investment Adviser. CreativeOne Wealth, LLC and Moore Financial Solutions

are unaffiliated entities. Licensed Insurance Professional. Insurance product guarantees are backed by the financial strength and claims-paying

ability of the issuing company.

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Moore Financial Solutions 1st Quarter 2025

By Tyler Moore • April 10, 2025

About thirteen years ago when I started my career as a Financial Services Professional, I was almost instantly astute to the number one factor that determines client success. Of course, this determination was solely my own opinion. I’ve never turned on CNBC and heard scientific data backing it and likely never will. You can nearly ignore researching passive management vs. active management, throw out a comparison of exchange traded funds vs. mutual funds, and forget all about whether a Roth IRA or Traditional IRA suits you best. I believe the number one determinate of success that a client must have is “Proper Expectations”. It is by no coincidence that I believe Moore Financial Solutions clients have extremely reasonable, and ultimately the proper, expectations regarding investing. Investing long term is no casino, rather a patient approach to creating current income and future earnings. Prior to gaining licensure to be on your side financially, I know people that panicked and sold their entire portfolio and moved to cash positions in the Great Recession of 2008-09. They told the story years later to me regarding the vast missed opportunity and harm in locking in the losses. Imagine an investor panicking in Q1 of 2009 and selling stocks below 700 on the S&P 500, an index that is about eight times higher today at 5,635 (1). The S&P 500 would see gains of over 75% in the eleven months to follow, peaking this client’s FOMO and desire to get back into the market, only to sharply drop 16% over the next two months (2). My advice to you, and the number one way I can help you with your investment success, continue not being like this example investor. But rather, stay rooted in your investment philosophy. Realistically, the stages of someone’s investment life are humorous. We typically have little money early on, and it is easy to overcome the emotional impact from the money movement (a 10% decline in a portfolio of $2,500 might equate to a couple days’ earnings). But the problem is, there aren’t ample funds in that portfolio to provide life-changing growth either. For example, last year’s approximately 25% increase in a hypothetical S&P 500 index would have added only $500 to that portfolio. You want to play in the big leagues? Think you can handle the emotional impact of stocks and bonds? Try having an account of $750,000 or $1,000,000. You might want to pick up a fun hobby known for reducing stress, because there are going to be times when your portfolio hits rough spots. But there is good news too. Mathematically, just a 5% return on one million dollars is a gain of $50,000, and the reward for taming the emotional torment is much greater. Sadly, Q1 2025 was a great month to lean on those stress-reducing hobbies because the S&P 500 moved 4.59% lower for the quarter (3). Additionally, the S&P 500 moved 8.66% lower from February 19th, 2025, to the end of Q1 (4). Though the 4.59% has some sting to it, moving down nearly 9% in 40 days undeniably tests the emotional resilience of an investor, and we understand this firsthand. We are excitedly moving forward with this quarterly review to discuss what moved markets, tariffs, and what opportunities may arise. Without question, Wall Street found it very difficult to plan around the Trump tariff shifts. On January 26th, 2025, President Donald Trump announced a 25% tariff on Columbian imports as President Gustavo Petro attempted to decline inbound Columbian migrants. Petro retaliated with a 25% tariff against United States made imports. Shortly after, Petro begrudgingly received the migrants, and the trade dispute 2 ended, providing our president a quick trade war win. Moore F.S. believes this quick victory would go on to fuel President Trump’s confidence using tariffs as weaponry. On February 1st, 2025, President Trump laid the foundation for a 10% China tariff and 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico. Just two days later the president would signal a 30 day pause on each of our neighbor’s 25% tariff (5). These back-and-forth movements continued off and on for much of the first quarter, with many tariff strategies subjecting only specific industries, e.g. automakers or steel producers, creating not only volatility in the broad stock market but especially within specific industries caught up in the talks. President Trump has labeled April 2nd, 2025, as “liberation day” signaling a big event. Throughout this back-and-forth, Moore Financial Solutions has made every effort not to be on the “wrong side” of the trade and has remained well rooted within our equity portfolio, when appropriate. We view, as mentioned in previous quarterly reviews, the volatility within the stock market as the “cost” or “price” paid emotionally to be able to receive the effective returns stocks could offer. In greater detail, rather than Moore F.S. attempting to time markets or predict the president’s next move and potentially being wrong, we’ll ride the storm out. Although Moore F.S. does not predict a bear market (described as a move down of 20% in the stock market), we point to the resilience of the stock market, overcoming all 29 previous bear markets and having done so rather quickly, taking an average of only 289 days to recover from the drop (6). Though we can’t rely on past market performance to guarantee its future, we believe this reaffirms our approach to using the stock market for clients with a long enough time horizon and ability to pay the emotional “cost” of seeing a portfolio move lower. Moore F.S. has theorized in past quarterly reviews, with no data to back it up, algorithmic trading (computers buying stocks at a “floor” or low point which might give the market support), and a trend of increasingly younger portfolio managers who have only seen speedy recoveries and long bull market rides might reduce the average bear market duration.

Moore Financial Solutions 4th Quarter 2024

By Tyler Moore • January 23, 2025

It is with great pleasure to work as your trusted advisor for another year! We hope you and your family had a Merry Christmas and you’re headed into a Happy New Year. To the surprise of some other financial firms, the stock market created sizable gains in 2024 with the S&P 500 increasing 23.3%, ironically within 1% of the year prior’s 24.23%. Additionally, that same market index returned a modest 2.06% in the fourth quarter of 2024, with all figures mentioned not including dividends (1). With Q4 of 2024 hosting one of the biggest elections of our lives, at least as described by some, we plan to discuss how our money management strategy evolves. We proudly stayed true to our strategy and didn’t decrease our allocation to stocks, while many other firms were selling covered calls and reducing their allocation to stocks as they incorrectly predicted a downturn in the markets for 2024. Even if you were living under a rock, you were likely informed that Donald Trump is headed back to the White House. We reference this change with the understanding that the leadership of current President Joe Biden is quite contrasting to the leadership we’ve seen from Donald Trump in the past, and his campaign promises. The Federal Reserve seemed to have had to slightly adjust their projected pace of rate cuts with the understanding that Trump will be more favorable to the economy through deregulation, corporate tax cuts, and repatriation of jobs. These factors, along with the deportation initiatives, may reignite inflation in the short term. The Center for American Progress puts the undocumented immigrant population in the United States at around 11.3 million, with 7 million of them working (2). To make matters worse, many of these jobs are considered “difficult to fill” and/or “less desirable jobs”. We believe the Federal Reserve felt the need to signal plans to slow rate reductions, after reducing rates in 2024. In September, the median projection for the end of 2025 implied four more rate cuts next year, but the median projection from December’s meeting only projects two more cuts (3). Below is the Federal Reserve’s dot plot, which is a chart that visually represents each member of the Federal Reserve's policymaking committee's projection for where they expect the federal funds rate (the benchmark interest rate) to be over the next few years.