Moore Financial Solutions 4th Quarter 2024

Tyler Moore • January 23, 2025

It is with great pleasure to work as your trusted advisor for another year! We hope you and your family had a Merry Christmas and you’re headed into a Happy New Year. To the surprise of some other financial firms, the stock market created sizable gains in 2024 with the S&P 500 increasing 23.3%, ironically within 1% of the year prior’s 24.23%. Additionally, that same market index returned a modest 2.06% in the fourth quarter of 2024, with all figures mentioned not including dividends (1). With Q4 of 2024 hosting one of the biggest elections of our lives, at least as described by some, we plan to discuss how our money management strategy evolves. We proudly stayed true to our strategy and didn’t decrease our allocation to stocks, while many other firms were selling covered calls and reducing their allocation to stocks as they incorrectly predicted a downturn in the markets for 2024.



Even if you were living under a rock, you were likely informed that Donald Trump is headed back to the White House. We reference this change with the understanding that the leadership of current President Joe Biden is quite contrasting to the leadership we’ve seen from Donald Trump in the past, and his campaign promises. The Federal Reserve seemed to have had to slightly adjust their projected pace of rate cuts with the understanding that Trump will be more favorable to the economy through deregulation, corporate tax cuts, and repatriation of jobs. These factors, along with the deportation initiatives, may reignite inflation in the short term. The Center for American Progress puts the undocumented immigrant population in the United States at around 11.3 million, with 7 million of them working (2). To make matters worse, many of these jobs are considered “difficult to fill” and/or “less desirable jobs”. We believe the Federal Reserve felt the need to signal plans to slow rate reductions, after reducing rates in 2024. In September, the median projection for the end of 2025 implied four more rate cuts next year, but the median projection from December’s meeting only projects two more cuts (3). Below is the Federal Reserve’s dot plot, which is a chart that visually represents each member of the Federal Reserve's policymaking committee's projection for where they expect the federal funds rate (the benchmark interest rate) to be over the next few years.

In our efforts to monetize the movements of interest rates, and more importantly monitor the risk/reward of your portfolio, we made major adjustments to our fixed income holdings in Q4 2024. As a reminder, a significant percentage of fixed income is typically not to be held by clients with a long-time horizon. Fixed income generally offers an inverse relationship with stocks, giving a client the ability to diversify their positions and offer rebalancing strategies in years in which the broad stock market retracts, so we feel very strongly that clients closer in time to their goal should own at least some fixed income. Near the end of the 3rd quarter, it seemed everyone was convinced that interest rates had to go lower, but we remained doubtful that the Federal Reserve had accomplished their goal of getting inflation to 2%. In reaction to a sticky inflationary environment, but with falling rates in the bond market, we took the stance that rates would creep back up. Within the last couple of weeks of Q3 we sold about $900,000 worth of our iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (ticker TLT) as we felt the bond market had gotten ahead of the Federal Reserve. We received approximately $98.95/share when sold at approximately September 20th, 2024. Knowing the importance of bonds, we decided to invest these proceeds in iShares Short Duration Bond Active ETF (ticker NEAR). Though both bond funds would continue to lose price, as bonds would naturally do when interest rates increase, the NEAR lost only about 1.5% while we avoided losses in the TLT of 11.2% (5). On 12/30/2024 we reversed this position, partly based upon the dot plot pictured above, which shows where the voting members of the Federal Reserve predicted interest rates will be in the future, purchasing back into the TLT at a price of $87.8399 and reaffirming our position of about $1.3 million within that ETF. Though catching a falling knife (the low point of the TLT) is never easy, and the price may go lower, we view this entry as a means to lock in the gain (actually the losses we avoided by being out of the TLT while it fell) rather than attempting to time the exact bottom. Additionally, when we moved from the TLT to the NEAR, the NEAR offered a higher yield, versus when we moved back the TLT was offering a higher yield. Our goal is to have a strong relationship with clients, centered on a strong foundation of communication to be able to make the changes that we see fit, and discuss how this impacts portfolios.


The strategy of Moore F.S. has always been to swing the bat for singles and doubles, and if home runs occur, that is a bonus. Our portfolios in 2024 included a tech and large cap stock heavy allocation, and we still believe in these positions. However, we only aim for about 90% of our allocations to be in broad ETFs and 10% in single stocks. We seek single stocks that are trading at a discount or offer what we think may be greater opportunities than the broad market. In our Q1 review in 2024 we discussed in detail some of the problems with the American food system and elected to use Natural Grocers (NGVC) in many of our portfolios. This single stock position went on to create more gains for our clients than we charged to manage portfolios in 2024, a scenario we live for. We view this as a success story of actively doing our own management, as opposed to using high-cost mutual funds to actively manage a portfolio.


As mentioned, I’m proud to be your financial advisor for another year and personally can’t wait to see what 2025 brings. That being said, how good can 2025 really be after two straight years of 20%+ returns? Although no one really knows the answer, hypothetically it could still be another 20% year, but we highly doubt that. We think the broad market will hit tough times in 2025, due to bonds offering a competitive yield close to 5% in many cases. Years ago, we felt that stocks were the only game in town, but with bonds selling at an attractive price and paying a decent dividend, stocks may become challenged. I believe the impacts of Donald Trump back in the White House will provide a similar result as he previously did, which was a red-hot stock market and economy. While you may hear in the media tariffs are bad, realistically their goal is to create a more level playing field for domestically made products against other countries who may be actively manipulating their currencies to price out domestically made goods. Moreover, in our opinion a 15% tariff doesn’t raise your costs by 15%, rather directs you to purchase domestic goods that might be 5% higher in cost with the ripple effects of buying locally more than making up for this 5% cost. I view the savings on energy costs will more than mitigate this burden. My largest worry is the debt this country is burdened with, and how that might elevate rates for a longer duration. My vow continues to be managing your account in what I believe is your very best interest, without becoming overly confident from my previous homerun hitting stocks. I’m looking forward to discussing your portfolio with you and welcome any thoughts or questions you may have regarding your goals. I believe with nearly 13 years of experience, I’m well balanced with experience and future longevity and encourage you to come to me with any suggestions of your friends and family that can benefit from working with me. Thank you for your continued trust and business and I look forward to another successful year working with your goals!





Tyler A. Moore

Did you know? Moore Financial Solutions offers unique/custom-built insurance solutions. Does anything keep you up at night that we could help fix? If so give us a call and we’ll help find you the best policy rates and options as we shop the open market of providers, all while offering our zero-pressure sales process. This includes Life Insurance, Disability Income Insurance, and Long-Term Care Insurance. Let’s review your policy and search for Moore Solutions today!


1. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history/ 

2. https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/10/trumps-mass-deportation-plan-immigrant-workers-and-economy.html 

3. https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/fomc-meeting 

4. https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/fomc-meeting 

5. https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/tlt 


This material has been prepared for information and educational purposes and should not be construed as a solicitation for the purchase or sale

of any investment. The content is developed from sources believed to be reliable. This information is not intended to be investment, legal or

tax advice. Investing involves risk, including the loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in a

period of declining values. Past performance may not be used to predict future results. Investment advisory services offered by duly registered

individuals on behalf of CreativeOne Wealth, LLC a Registered Investment Adviser. CreativeOne Wealth, LLC and Moore Financial Solutions

are unaffiliated entities. Licensed Insurance Professional. Insurance product guarantees are backed by the financial strength and claims-paying

ability of the issuing company. 

Moore Financial Solutions 2nd Quarter 2025

By Tyler Moore • July 14, 2025
The stock market carousel continued in the second quarter of 2025, with some investors jumping off, while others jumped aboard. Aiming for a solid return to follow a negative 4.59% Q1, the S&P 500 slated a 10.57% return for our second quarter (1). During this most recent quarter, I leaned on my beliefs mentioned fifteen months ago in my Q1 2024 Moore Financial Solutions review; “we feel that investors unknowingly become more faithful in broad U.S. equities to recover after a downturn.” In that previous review I offered a thought that investors have become more trusting that markets will recover after seeing it happen in the 29 historical bear markets, as compared to the first ever bear market, for example. Though my continued theory is that the average bear market duration will decrease over time (with younger investors portfolio managing more assets and algorithmic trading increasing), even I was surprised by the minor 83-day bear market speed bump that the S&P 500 shook off, given that prior to this the average bear market was 289 days (2). The S&P 500 would go on to close Q2 both positive for the year and at record highs. In this quarterly review we’ll look at how bear markets are rarely the same and how our strategy must evolve. We’ll discuss a stubbornly high interest rate, our positioning for potential interest rate decreases, and global matters affecting the market. It’s been said for years that the stock market takes the escalator up and the elevator down. But why? Simply put, this is the result of the driving forces of selling and buying stocks. If investors are optimistic, they’ll commonly allocate to the stock market in an attempt to grow their money. But too much of this buying is deemed greedy and is a great evil of long-term investing. If investors, however, are fearful, they’ll sell their stocks, (at least the less emotionally committed, shorter term investors), driving the price of stocks lower. We believe Q2 is a great example of the battle between fear and greed, and the only real concern is being wrong on predicting short-term market movements. Over the first six trading days of Q2, investors sharply drove the S&P 500 about 11.2% lower, with panic fueled by President Donald Trump’s April 2nd liberation day announcements (3). A resilient S&P 500 would heal the 11.2% wound in only 17 trading days, leaving behind investors who may have been scared out of the market near April 8th closing lows on the S&P 500 of 4,982.77 (4). This would be the first and only closing price below 5,000 on the S&P 500 from April 20th, 2024, to today’s July 1st, 2025, date. In our opinion, this supports our thoughts regarding algorithmic trading, which likely conducted heavy buying at levels of support below 5,000. April 9th would serve as the third largest one-day gain for the S&P 500 in history, increasing by about 9.5% (5). We view the sudden announcements and emotional reactions in the stock market as a great reason to stay the course in our investments. By staying focused on our long-term perspective, while short-term winners and losers argue over the current price, we’ll be less likely to panic and instead willing to accept an average return, rather than attempt to outsmart the market. Moore F.S. was able to capitalize in some situations by selling bonds and buying stocks, when appropriate. While it is not fully determined who lost what, it is implied that a portion of investors locked in losses in Q2, by panic selling with the herd mentality near April 8th lows. These investors would, as a result, miss out on what would become a fruitful Q2 for those willing to wait the required 84 days and not be emotionally rattled.

Moore Financial Solutions 1st Quarter 2025

By Tyler Moore • April 10, 2025
About thirteen years ago when I started my career as a Financial Services Professional, I was almost instantly astute to the number one factor that determines client success. Of course, this determination was solely my own opinion. I’ve never turned on CNBC and heard scientific data backing it and likely never will. You can nearly ignore researching passive management vs. active management, throw out a comparison of exchange traded funds vs. mutual funds, and forget all about whether a Roth IRA or Traditional IRA suits you best. I believe the number one determinate of success that a client must have is “Proper Expectations”. It is by no coincidence that I believe Moore Financial Solutions clients have extremely reasonable, and ultimately the proper, expectations regarding investing. Investing long term is no casino, rather a patient approach to creating current income and future earnings. Prior to gaining licensure to be on your side financially, I know people that panicked and sold their entire portfolio and moved to cash positions in the Great Recession of 2008-09. They told the story years later to me regarding the vast missed opportunity and harm in locking in the losses. Imagine an investor panicking in Q1 of 2009 and selling stocks below 700 on the S&P 500, an index that is about eight times higher today at 5,635 (1). The S&P 500 would see gains of over 75% in the eleven months to follow, peaking this client’s FOMO and desire to get back into the market, only to sharply drop 16% over the next two months (2). My advice to you, and the number one way I can help you with your investment success, continue not being like this example investor. But rather, stay rooted in your investment philosophy. Realistically, the stages of someone’s investment life are humorous. We typically have little money early on, and it is easy to overcome the emotional impact from the money movement (a 10% decline in a portfolio of $2,500 might equate to a couple days’ earnings). But the problem is, there aren’t ample funds in that portfolio to provide life-changing growth either. For example, last year’s approximately 25% increase in a hypothetical S&P 500 index would have added only $500 to that portfolio. You want to play in the big leagues? Think you can handle the emotional impact of stocks and bonds? Try having an account of $750,000 or $1,000,000. You might want to pick up a fun hobby known for reducing stress, because there are going to be times when your portfolio hits rough spots. But there is good news too. Mathematically, just a 5% return on one million dollars is a gain of $50,000, and the reward for taming the emotional torment is much greater. Sadly, Q1 2025 was a great month to lean on those stress-reducing hobbies because the S&P 500 moved 4.59% lower for the quarter (3). Additionally, the S&P 500 moved 8.66% lower from February 19th, 2025, to the end of Q1 (4). Though the 4.59% has some sting to it, moving down nearly 9% in 40 days undeniably tests the emotional resilience of an investor, and we understand this firsthand. We are excitedly moving forward with this quarterly review to discuss what moved markets, tariffs, and what opportunities may arise. Without question, Wall Street found it very difficult to plan around the Trump tariff shifts. On January 26th, 2025, President Donald Trump announced a 25% tariff on Columbian imports as President Gustavo Petro attempted to decline inbound Columbian migrants. Petro retaliated with a 25% tariff against United States made imports. Shortly after, Petro begrudgingly received the migrants, and the trade dispute 2 ended, providing our president a quick trade war win. Moore F.S. believes this quick victory would go on to fuel President Trump’s confidence using tariffs as weaponry. On February 1st, 2025, President Trump laid the foundation for a 10% China tariff and 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico. Just two days later the president would signal a 30 day pause on each of our neighbor’s 25% tariff (5). These back-and-forth movements continued off and on for much of the first quarter, with many tariff strategies subjecting only specific industries, e.g. automakers or steel producers, creating not only volatility in the broad stock market but especially within specific industries caught up in the talks. President Trump has labeled April 2nd, 2025, as “liberation day” signaling a big event. Throughout this back-and-forth, Moore Financial Solutions has made every effort not to be on the “wrong side” of the trade and has remained well rooted within our equity portfolio, when appropriate. We view, as mentioned in previous quarterly reviews, the volatility within the stock market as the “cost” or “price” paid emotionally to be able to receive the effective returns stocks could offer. In greater detail, rather than Moore F.S. attempting to time markets or predict the president’s next move and potentially being wrong, we’ll ride the storm out. Although Moore F.S. does not predict a bear market (described as a move down of 20% in the stock market), we point to the resilience of the stock market, overcoming all 29 previous bear markets and having done so rather quickly, taking an average of only 289 days to recover from the drop (6). Though we can’t rely on past market performance to guarantee its future, we believe this reaffirms our approach to using the stock market for clients with a long enough time horizon and ability to pay the emotional “cost” of seeing a portfolio move lower. Moore F.S. has theorized in past quarterly reviews, with no data to back it up, algorithmic trading (computers buying stocks at a “floor” or low point which might give the market support), and a trend of increasingly younger portfolio managers who have only seen speedy recoveries and long bull market rides might reduce the average bear market duration.
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