Moore Financial Solutions 3rd Quarter 2026

Tyler Moore • October 15, 2026

Tyler A. Moore

10/09/2026

“The market”. Two words that have been used loosely to describe a 70+ trillion-dollar United States stock market, with global market totals being roughly double that. It seems a day doesn’t go by without someone asking me, “how’s the market?” With nearly a decade and a half of portfolio management I’m generally paid an even higher compliment when I’m directed the question, “where do you think the market is headed?” Formally, my response incorporates an admittance of uncertainty, a personal belief that the historic wealth creation abilities of the U.S. stock market might continue in the long-term, and encouragement to have proper expectations with the potential for losses when using stocks. Surprisingly, one of the primary drivers of my refrain is a major attempt not to have a communication failure. “The market” might mean something totally different for a realtor, sales professional, cattlemen, financial advisor, etc. But they’re all related in some way, and conversation usually comes back to two major forces: interest rates and energy prices. In this Q3 review we will examine specific markets with higher magnification, as we discuss S&P 500 markets, the bond market, and the oil market.

You’d have to look back five years to find a quieter S&P 500 quarter, with the index moving only 2.03% higher, plus dividends (1). A more detailed image illustrates a 4% increase from the beginning of the quarter until the August 13th, 2026, peak in which the markets faced increasing energy prices, interest rate increases, a potential pullback in artificial intelligence spending, and the Federal Reserve changing their tone regarding interest rate increases. Since that peak, west Texas intermediate crude (a benchmark for U.S. crude oil prices) increased about $10 to $92.91 to close the quarter (2). Additionally, the benchmark for interest rates, the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Note, rose from about 4.65% to 5.29% to close the quarter (3). A consumer with less discretionary income after fueling their car and a corporate environment operating with higher interest rates paint an ugly picture. After reading the charts we can clearly see the inner workings. Since August 13th there was a flight to what would theoretically hold up well in a higher rate environment, the “Mag 7”. Over the next 48 days in the quarter the average S&P 500 stock would lose 6.6% (the equal weight S&P 500) while the S&P 500 lost only about 1.9%. Moreover, uncertainty in the Middle East led energy prices and interest rates higher, driving much of the U.S. stock market lower.

The relationship between the broad U.S. economy and oil is comical, as long as you’re not on the wrong side of price. Satire rests in the relationship because a rapidly strengthening economy creates added demand for oil, as businesses get busier their operations naturally demand more gasoline, diesel, and/or various other petroleum inputs. Take the concrete industry, the more concrete they pour the greater fuel demand they place on the broad market. Thus, a healthy economy can lead oil prices higher, in reciprocal, crude is cruel as too high oil prices can slow even the healthiest economies. In other words, economists are very focused on whether the economy can handle fuel input expenses, topping $105/barrel in September for WTI crude and the latest read on national average diesel prices near $6.38/gallon (4). With the average loaded semi-truck in Kansas averaging 5.99 miles per gallon and your typical Missouri truck coming in at 6.18MPG this requires more than a dollar of fuel per mile, before paying a driver, legal/registration fees, or keeping a truck maintained (5). The historical remedy for fuel price increases was simple, slow down for better mileage. With the professional truck driving industry earning a labor rate about 57% higher than at the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic, slowing down isn’t as feasible (6). But this price story is not all doom and gloom, in fact we believe the Strait of Hormuz issue can be improved. Last quarter we thought the issue would be solved with negotiation, at this point this issue has improved some with secondary route crude oil shipping and U.S. military escorts of oil through the strait. The secondary processes of oil flow include Saudi Arabia's Petroline or the UAE's Habshan-Fujairah pipeline as well as other shipping routes. But the pipeline has limits, and the alternative shipping routes may incur higher costs in transit and insurance.

Within the quarter, high fuel costs due to uncertainty in the Middle East sparked fresh inflation worries. It seems higher energy costs drove inflation expectations and interest rates higher which hurt moderate to long duration bond funds in the third quarter. For example, our conversational benchmark for bonds, iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (ticker TLT) moved 10% lower in Q3, falling 6.82% of that 10% in the last 36 days of Q3 (8). We believe the bond market is commonly the canary in the coal mine and often uncovers risk prior to other markets. The bond market was potentially sensing higher inflation and uncertain if the Federal Reserve was independent enough from President Trump’s low interest rate desires to combat inflation. We think high interest worries are exacerbated by dual forces of a $40 trillion U.S. national debt and increasing interest expense costs (9). In contrast to most 401k plans and overly conservative managers, we do not introduce bonds into a portfolio with a time horizon of more than fifteen years, generally speaking. We view the historical greater returns in equities and the uncertainty of bonds to generate total return as reasoning to run full equity portfolios when a client is saving for a longer-term goal.

Moreover, we generally remain committed to fixed income investments for those clients nearing the redemption phase of their investment goals, even if this means an increase in interest rate risks. Bond funds, such as the TLT mentioned above, see an immediate price drop and a potential gradual increase in yields, hopefully softening the price landing. Many investors with positions in bonds may be feeling the lower share price upon opening their statements.

There are almost endless ratios to analyze investment opportunities/business climate, most of which the standards of measure are ever-changing. For example, a price to earnings ratio attempting to help an investor determine entry price legitimacy would be a sliding scale and ultimately ever changing. With the goal to keep the material more entry level and concise let’s over generalize and put investment sentiment into one of two categories; risk-on and risk-off. This thought of investors desiring to be in more risky assets seemed to have waned through the quarter with increases in interest rates. Suddenly, Wall Street moved to what they thought was safe. We vision some sector rotation as efficient, but plan to avoid sharp rebalancing objectives.

As my goal has been each quarter, I want to thank you for your continued commitment of working together towards your goals! I believe our duty is to remain well-balanced and prepare for interest rates to go higher, or retreat. Equally, prepare emotionally for the U.S. stock market to go either direction. I had not envisioned interest rates rising this much, and on paper that can hit some bond portfolios a bit hard. However, with higher rates comes the ability to potentially grow your wealth more rapidly and those same bond funds that lost price may have gained yield. I’m here for you in these markets, and in all market cycles. Please reach me if I can help you in any way, increasing your confidence is my priority. Tyler A. Moore - 913-731-9105- TMoore@TMooreFS.com

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Moore Financial Solutions 2nd Quarter 2026

By Tyler Moore • July 14, 2026

The investment tree you planted previously may have provided more fruit in the second quarter of 2026 with the S&P 500 rising by about 15% (1). Additionally, some small cap funds such as ticker IJR (iShares Core S&P Small-Cap ETF) rose by about 19.3%, as investors felt relieved that interest rates were decreasing (2). This small cap surge was welcomed by portfolio managers such as Moore Financial Solutions, who have closely monitored the historical outperformance of small cap companies, which lagged last year. In Q2 all eyes focused on the U.S./Iran War, as investors pushed WTI crude oil prices to $112.95 on April 6th, 2026, an increase of 104% in 112 days from the December 15th, 2025, low. Investors viewed rising oil prices as a signal of higher inflation and worried that newly appointed Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh might delay the interest rate cuts that many investors expected. Take five minutes every quarter, twenty minutes total for all of 2026, to better understand from my point of view why I believe the stock market is in an uptrend, the movement of other asset classes, and our thoughts of if this can continue. If a traveler arrived near Kansas City for a World Cup match, knew nothing about Moore F.S. and was curiously asking about firm values, or A.I. was tasked with doing analysis of Moore F.S. quarterly reviews, you would hear a common theme. Repetitively, we attempt to instill three thoughts regarding today's modern investor. First, stocks will move both up and down, so do not get used to 25% years, but be ready to use them to your advantage. Secondly, whether you are an individual client or Moore Financial Solutions managing $27.8 million, we are still a small fish in an enormous ocean of investors. That reality is one reason we avoid trying to time the market or become overly concerned with short-term movements. The intention is not to make either party feel small, rather create a metaphor that you are subject to the tide going up or down and remind you that it will do both. Lastly, this is not Mayberry where Wally's Filling Station, Floyd's Barbershop, and Mayberry Diner represent most of your commerce. In fact, you are likely tied deeply into a global economy with dozens of moving parts from tariff rules to the Strait of Hormuz. We will dive deeper into that strait and use West Texas Intermediate prices for our conversation. Last quarter we honed in on the logistics of the Strait of Hormuz stating, “That roughly 21-mile-wide body of water, the Strait of Hormuz, realistically can create a recession.” In other words, the economy is increasingly global, and a small shipping route over 7,500 miles from Kansas City impacts your prices for gas and thousands of other items. Moore F.S. took the opinion that the oil price spike would be short lived and spoke freely to clients about this view. We did not take this viewpoint on a hunch, rather we studied the backwardation of WTI crude oil prices. This unique backwardation of oil prices looked similar to the inverted yield curve our firm witnessed for a couple of years from 2022-2024 (you can learn more about yield curve inversion in the previous Moore F.S. reviews written Q3 2024 and Q3 2025). In our backwardation forecasting we did not feel obligated to predict the price of oil, rather we used crude oil futures markets to determine where traders were imagining oil prices. This reassuring feeling of a decrease in oil prices combined extremely well with our buy and hold philosophy. In other words, we did not panic sell stocks in fear that oil might hit $200/barrel, as multiple firms said was possible. Since 1985, the crude oil market has been in contango (a positively sloping price curve) around 42% of the time. It has been in backwardation 58% of the time as measured by the price difference between the front-month contract and contracts for six months in the future (4). Higher fuel prices fueled inflation concerns. As a result of an increasing oil price economy, traders drove interest rates higher as well. An economy that imagined a couple rate decreases for the year now was eyeing a spike in inflation and had to reposition interest rates. As a result, Wall Street pushed the 10-Year U.S. Treasury rate from 4.318% to 4.469% in Q2. Though we aim to avoid interest rate prognostications, we firmly believe the United States will rejoin a decreasing interest rate environment for the remainder of the year, at least from the 4.469% levels, barring geopolitical shocks to the system.

Moore Financial Solutions 1st Quarter 2026

By Tyler Moore • April 9, 2026

The past 35 days have humbled investors as we witnessed the S&P 500 lose approximately 6% from February 25th into the quarter's close. The S&P 500 finished the entire quarter 4.6% lower, which represents the first losing quarter since Q1 of last year, in which the S&P 500 lost about 4.59%. Much like an emotional play or movie, the market offered three scenes of varying benefit to investor portfolios. Scene one was brief but fruitful. In these first 12 days of the year the S&P 500 rose about 1.92%. Scene two left investors leaning on the emotional lessons learned from 2025's market downturn, with the S&P 500 moving about 9% lower from day 13 of the year until March 30th. Scene three flashed quickly and only represented one day. On this last day of the quarter, the S&P 500 meaningfully rose about 2.9% in an effort to heal a portion of the quarter's losses. I believe, based upon my nearly 14 years of money management, that stock market history doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme. Though I'm not predicting a positive year for the S&P 500 (and admittedly not in the business of making such predictions) this year's chart for the broad stock market looks somewhat like last year's. Those first quarter '25 stumbles were later looked at as a massive buying opportunity, symbolizing the power of "buy and hold" as it relates to stocks. Only time will tell if these stock market worries are warranted and if there will be continued damage to stock portfolios because of the conflict in Iran. Additionally, the market is eyeing oil price increases, interest rate increases, various geopolitical risks, and the additional unforeseen risks on the horizon. Or are stock market investors currently pricing in many areas of worry, all of which will subside in the coming weeks? Dive into the quarter's review in which I attempt to illustrate investing through my eyes, discuss quarterly geopolitical events, and speak to market moving factors of Q1 and investor emotions as a result. Use this tool to educate yourself and reduce worry or fear as it relates to investing.