Moore Financial Solutions Second Quarter 2021
Tyler Moore • July 14, 2021
The second quarter of 2021 showed strength in equities with the S&P 500 being up each of the three months. The United States equity markets rallied to go three for three, while keeping a close eye on inflationary drag on companies and a historical supply chain issue from Covid-19. The monthly returns of the S&P 500 this quarter were 5.24% in April, .549% in May and 2.22% in June. The U.S. and global economy faced supply chain issues ranging from the inability to physically get shipping containers, to a boom in commodities, such as the well documented surge in lumber prices and labor shortages. One thing seemed clear; the American consumer continued
to spring back from the Covid-19 lull of spending. This quarterly report will review aspects of Q2 regarding supply chain issues, Federal Reserve discussions, interest rates, the Delta Variant, and discuss projections/strategies moving forward.
As the second quarter of 2021 continued the post COVID recovery process, many consumers continued to spend after months of savings. This V-shaped global recovery created an imbalance between consumers and suppliers. This results in price fluctuation. The U.S. and other global economies lack the ability to be highly maneuverable. Instead, these economies take months, if not years, to ramp back up after such uncertainty from the pandemic. After years of demanding smart technology in what seems like everything we use, there has been an increased demand in computer “chips” (to oversimplify). The great 2021 chip shortage, as well as other materials/labor shortages, have created a new phenomenon of “depreciating assets” having appreciated, such as trucks, machinery, equipment, etc. We use this as an example of the impact global supply chain issues can have on our everyday lives.
At Moore F.S., we believe U.S. equity market investors had a close eye on the Federal Reserve and their intentions regarding interest rates and the purchase of securities on the open market. It is our belief that the Federal Reserve will make policy change in some form within a
year or two. Jerome Powell seemed to thread the needle and calm U.S. equity investors’ nerves this quarter with gentle language surrounding the subject of policy change. The Federal Reserve is eyeing the strategy of slowing their purchase of assets on open markets. These purchases essentially add money into the economy and have a quantitative easing effect on our economy. This easing strategy was implemented in the recovery of the great recession and have not fully been discontinued. Investment allocation strategy, especially for more conservative investors, becomes paramount during these times of potential interest rate changes. Moore F.S. bond portfolios favor high quality limited duration bonds, along with other bond types.
Interest rates decreased within the second quarter of 2021. The U.S. Ten Year Treasury note started the quarter with a yield of 1.745% and ended the quarter at 1.469%. In the opinion of Moore F.S., this slight decrease was a result of the overshot of interest rates in March, a month that saw a .33% increase of yield from 1.415% to 1.745%. Additionally, the Federal Reserve strongly sent the message that interest rate increases are not immediately on the horizon. This decrease of rates had a positive impact on the price of bonds. As interest rates fell, the bonds Moore F.S. held appreciated in value, because it became harder for investors to find new bonds paying that higher yield. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF TLT can illustrate this with a Q2 appreciation of 6.57%, moving from a starting value of 135.45 to 144.35 per share. This 6.57% increase in TLT paired nicely with an 8.06% increase in the iShares Core S&P 500 ETF IVV for the quarter. The IVV remains the largest holding of Moore F.S. for Q2 2021. Generally, bonds and stocks may have an inverse relationship, but a decreasing interest rate for the second quarter was a broadly favorable event for investors of both equity and debt holdings. The reduction of interest rates helps potentially increase the margins of companies, then reflects in the share price. Additionally, falling interest rates lead to an increase in the current price of bonds within a portfolio.
Lastly, we believe the Delta Variant of Covid-19 kept U.S. equities from hitting the thrusters with more emphasis. We seem to have lived through so much in the last couple years that it is without surprise that we are not fully in the clear from this mutation. The Delta Variant continues to spread globally and seems prevalent within the Midwest. The uncertainty of how rapidly this variant can spread and how effective current vaccines are will continue to be a key focus in our lives and within equity and bond prices.
Looking forward, Moore F.S. believes the recovery is on, and investors and consumers are willing to continue a path to more spending and higher equity prices. We remain highly invested in the United States equity markets, when appropriate for investors, and continue to be invested lightly into what we consider recovering assets, such as the cruise lines. For investors that can tolerate risk and exposure to volatility, we see Small Cap U.S. equities leading the trend higher over the next few years with much uncertainty in interest rates to potentially influence this trade. We see many of the supply chain issues being resolved in the next 9-15+ months, depending on the industry and sector of the economy.
I remain committed to managing every portfolio in a unique and personalized manner while individually trading each account. It is with great pride I continue to work with you on your financial goals and bring you the most efficient and cutting-edge portfolios and tradability. I continue to manage your goals and dreams, not simply your stocks and bonds. Moore F.S. continues to strive to use high quality companies with ideal earnings, generally speaking. On a personal note, within the second quarter of 2021, my wife, Samantha, and I welcomed second our daughter, Harper, into the world and things have mostly returned to normal within the Moore F.S. schedule and visiting with clients. As always please reach me personally if you have any questions or if I can help you. I remain committed to steering Moore F.S. in the direction of being as efficient and competitive as the largest firms, while providing strategic and personalized service you would find within the smallest of organizations.
Tyler A. Moore
The investment tree you planted previously may have provided more fruit in the second quarter of 2026 with the S&P 500 rising by about 15% (1). Additionally, some small cap funds such as ticker IJR (iShares Core S&P Small-Cap ETF) rose by about 19.3%, as investors felt relieved that interest rates were decreasing (2). This small cap surge was welcomed by portfolio managers such as Moore Financial Solutions, who have closely monitored the historical outperformance of small cap companies, which lagged last year. In Q2 all eyes focused on the U.S./Iran War, as investors pushed WTI crude oil prices to $112.95 on April 6th, 2026, an increase of 104% in 112 days from the December 15th, 2025, low. Investors viewed rising oil prices as a signal of higher inflation and worried that newly appointed Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh might delay the interest rate cuts that many investors expected. Take five minutes every quarter, twenty minutes total for all of 2026, to better understand from my point of view why I believe the stock market is in an uptrend, the movement of other asset classes, and our thoughts of if this can continue. If a traveler arrived near Kansas City for a World Cup match, knew nothing about Moore F.S. and was curiously asking about firm values, or A.I. was tasked with doing analysis of Moore F.S. quarterly reviews, you would hear a common theme. Repetitively, we attempt to instill three thoughts regarding today's modern investor. First, stocks will move both up and down, so do not get used to 25% years, but be ready to use them to your advantage. Secondly, whether you are an individual client or Moore Financial Solutions managing $27.8 million, we are still a small fish in an enormous ocean of investors. That reality is one reason we avoid trying to time the market or become overly concerned with short-term movements. The intention is not to make either party feel small, rather create a metaphor that you are subject to the tide going up or down and remind you that it will do both. Lastly, this is not Mayberry where Wally's Filling Station, Floyd's Barbershop, and Mayberry Diner represent most of your commerce. In fact, you are likely tied deeply into a global economy with dozens of moving parts from tariff rules to the Strait of Hormuz. We will dive deeper into that strait and use West Texas Intermediate prices for our conversation. Last quarter we honed in on the logistics of the Strait of Hormuz stating, “That roughly 21-mile-wide body of water, the Strait of Hormuz, realistically can create a recession.” In other words, the economy is increasingly global, and a small shipping route over 7,500 miles from Kansas City impacts your prices for gas and thousands of other items. Moore F.S. took the opinion that the oil price spike would be short lived and spoke freely to clients about this view. We did not take this viewpoint on a hunch, rather we studied the backwardation of WTI crude oil prices. This unique backwardation of oil prices looked similar to the inverted yield curve our firm witnessed for a couple of years from 2022-2024 (you can learn more about yield curve inversion in the previous Moore F.S. reviews written Q3 2024 and Q3 2025). In our backwardation forecasting we did not feel obligated to predict the price of oil, rather we used crude oil futures markets to determine where traders were imagining oil prices. This reassuring feeling of a decrease in oil prices combined extremely well with our buy and hold philosophy. In other words, we did not panic sell stocks in fear that oil might hit $200/barrel, as multiple firms said was possible. Since 1985, the crude oil market has been in contango (a positively sloping price curve) around 42% of the time. It has been in backwardation 58% of the time as measured by the price difference between the front-month contract and contracts for six months in the future (4). Higher fuel prices fueled inflation concerns. As a result of an increasing oil price economy, traders drove interest rates higher as well. An economy that imagined a couple rate decreases for the year now was eyeing a spike in inflation and had to reposition interest rates. As a result, Wall Street pushed the 10-Year U.S. Treasury rate from 4.318% to 4.469% in Q2. Though we aim to avoid interest rate prognostications, we firmly believe the United States will rejoin a decreasing interest rate environment for the remainder of the year, at least from the 4.469% levels, barring geopolitical shocks to the system.
The past 35 days have humbled investors as we witnessed the S&P 500 lose approximately 6% from February 25th into the quarter's close. The S&P 500 finished the entire quarter 4.6% lower, which represents the first losing quarter since Q1 of last year, in which the S&P 500 lost about 4.59%. Much like an emotional play or movie, the market offered three scenes of varying benefit to investor portfolios. Scene one was brief but fruitful. In these first 12 days of the year the S&P 500 rose about 1.92%. Scene two left investors leaning on the emotional lessons learned from 2025's market downturn, with the S&P 500 moving about 9% lower from day 13 of the year until March 30th. Scene three flashed quickly and only represented one day. On this last day of the quarter, the S&P 500 meaningfully rose about 2.9% in an effort to heal a portion of the quarter's losses. I believe, based upon my nearly 14 years of money management, that stock market history doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme. Though I'm not predicting a positive year for the S&P 500 (and admittedly not in the business of making such predictions) this year's chart for the broad stock market looks somewhat like last year's. Those first quarter '25 stumbles were later looked at as a massive buying opportunity, symbolizing the power of "buy and hold" as it relates to stocks. Only time will tell if these stock market worries are warranted and if there will be continued damage to stock portfolios because of the conflict in Iran. Additionally, the market is eyeing oil price increases, interest rate increases, various geopolitical risks, and the additional unforeseen risks on the horizon. Or are stock market investors currently pricing in many areas of worry, all of which will subside in the coming weeks? Dive into the quarter's review in which I attempt to illustrate investing through my eyes, discuss quarterly geopolitical events, and speak to market moving factors of Q1 and investor emotions as a result. Use this tool to educate yourself and reduce worry or fear as it relates to investing.
