Moore Financial Solutions Third Quarter 2023

Tyler Moore • October 17, 2023

After the S&P 500 recorded an 8.3% return for Q2 in 2023, Q3 was a quick reminder of the downward trend equity investors have seen since the highest levels of January 2022. The Q3 2023 report highlights this quarter’s -3.65% S&P 500 move from 4,450.38 to 4,288.05 (1). With most Moore F.S. investors viewing their statements monthly, these last two months offer additional disappointment following a fruitful July, where the S&P 500 created a 3.11% return. We look forward to the quarterly reviews that highlight the many positive factors commonly on the horizon for U.S. equities, but for now, we are left detailing three major concerns within equity investing and a couple positives that may be looming. However, it remains my personal goal to not trade in and out of equities as these three issues could all hypothetically be resolved overnight, and Moore F.S. clients be left behind in the markets.

Since you’ve likely been leaning on the Moore F.S. quarterly reviews to get quarterly general information on what is setting the trend in your account, you’ve likely understood some basics. A major influx of cash into the economy from quantitative easing (oversimplified as the Federal Reserve adding money to the money supply since the Great Recession) as well as direct payments to citizens during the pandemic created high inflation. If left untamed, this inflationary risk could go on for a few more years and then burst into a very deep recession, or worse. Monetary policy tightening can occur by the Federal Reserve (which we will shorten in title to “the Fed”) through interest rate increases, quantitative tightening, and increases to bank’s reserve requirements. The Fed has elected to continue a firm trend of quantitative tightening and a variable trend of interest rate increases. In other words, they aim to be data dependent on the rate of interest rate hikes, and continually monitor if more interest rate increases are needed. Thus, the stock market hangs on every word the Fed presents, in hopes of identifying the short-term direction of stocks. In Q3 the Fed seemed to suggest they were ok with rates staying higher for longer given the solidity in U.S. job markets.

Up until this recent quarter, most of the Fed’s rate hikes have increased short term rates, while the long end of the yield curve was slow to react. The yield curve inverted, creating a strange occurrence of short-term yields being higher than long term yields. Moore F.S. bought more short-term debt in Q3 than any other debt. However, a major transformation occurred in Q3 2023, where longer-term interest rates suddenly increased as well. In Q3 2023, the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Note moved from 3.84% to 4.58% (2). We feel that the Fed is looking at the labor market to determine their success with interest rate increases, and they wish to see slight cracks in the labor market to ensure their battle against inflation is won. Moreover, we feel that interest rate movements are largely supply and demand driven, so until the bond market (bond investors) bought into the Fed’s determination to keep rates higher for longer, as the Fed has indicated, rates were too stubborn to move. We view the Fed’s conversation regarding accomplishing its goal as coming within 6-15 months based on these significant rate increases on the longer end of the curve. We see the Fed as a risk to the market, but also one of the greatest potential positive impacts to markets as well. The risk of the Fed’s overtightening could negatively impact markets, while the Fed signaling their work is done against inflation might be the driving factor to reach the previous 2022 market highs. Additionally, we believe the Fed will likely reduce rates within 12-18 months of their last interest rate increase, impacting stocks and bonds positively. Rate cuts occurred about eight months after the last round of rate increases, which ran from 2015-2018. These three rate cuts in 2019 were actions taken by the Fed in what the Fed referred to simply as a “mid-cycle adjustment” (3).

Another contributing factor to Q3’s lack of performance includes the unprecedented strike of the United Auto Workers union (UAW) against the big three auto makers, General Motors, Ford, and Stellantis. Wall Street weighed the risks of the domino effect that a long-lasting strike may have. “Our theoretical math suggests that labor cost increases should largely be manageable for the D-3. Further, a work stoppage should keep inventories low and support prices staying elevated, which should be a near term offset for higher wages,” RBC Capital Markets analyst Tom Narayan said in an investor note (4). Automakers represent a basic economic example of the ripples that can be sent through suppliers and local communities. Areas where UAW labor makes up a large portion of economic activity could quickly see nonessential businesses (e.g., restaurants and entertainment) close their doors. While a small supplier of windows used in the production of cars could be sitting on inventory and loans needing to be paid and could be losing money quickly. We view the risks related to the UAW strike as potentially more impactful than just lost wages in Detroit. “When GM gets a cold, the suppliers get pneumonia,” said Arthur Wheaton who is the director of labor studies at Cornell University’s School of Industrial and Labor Relations (5). Clearly, it is best to resolve the stoppages sooner than later for the broad economy. We look forward to a resolution that avoids long-term concerns and believe a deal will positively impact the broad market, continuing the theme that this issue could be resolved overnight, and we must remain allocated to equities when appropriate.

It couldn’t be a Moore F.S. quarterly review if we weren’t counting down the days until the next debt ceiling is reached, whether mentioned in our reviews or not. However, we feel each deadline becomes more difficult to reach a deal as the debt ceiling allowance ultimately is increased each time, it is currently above $33,500,000,000,000 ($33.5 trillion) (6). To put this into perspective, only three years prior this number was below $27 trillion. Another just in time deal was reached to keep the government operating until November 17th, 2023 (7). We find an uneasy feeling with the trajectory of deficit and the debt ceiling issues. Over the last year (since October 2022) the federal government’s spending exceeded its revenues by $1,524,166,099,656 ($1.52 trillion) (8). Additionally, we remain hopeful a solution can be reached before November 17th, giving the market some more breathing room. However, continually extending the debt ceiling is not fixing the underlying issue of spending, in the opinion of Moore F.S.

In summary, Q3 2023 is ending with a high level of uncertainty. Most notably this high level of uncertainty pertains to the direction of interest rates, which hinges on the results of the Fed’s fight against inflation. My goal of highlighting the main three concerns the stock market faces (the Fed, UAW strike and the debt ceiling) is not to sound pessimistic, but rather to point out that the market has already factored in these concerns. We are excited for when the issues subside, especially as it relates to the Fed signaling their work against inflation is done. I realize that investing and seeing your money go up, down, or sideways is an emotional part of your life. In the same respect, I also understand that if we simply move all your assets to Treasury bills, which do offer a nice yield on short term money, your long-term positions will not be able to keep up with and outpace inflation in the way stocks and bonds have historically. As a result, my overall goal with you is to work in a balanced manner and remind you of the volatility that comes with investing in stocks or bonds. While there are no guarantees, the stock market has the potential to build your wealth, if you give it time. Historically, $1,000 into the S&P 500 in 1994 (a 30-year investment approximately) would now be $16,255.77, which represents a 9.91% return each year with dividends. Factoring in inflation, you’d be holding $6,827.13 worth of 1994 dollars (9). Thus, I believe if investors are willing to ride the ups and downs of markets their patience may be rewarded. I thank you for our strong partnership towards your goals and the trust you place in me.

Tyler A. Moore

TMoore@TMooreFS.com

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history/
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/tmubmusd10y/charts?countrycode=bx&mod=mw_quote_advanced
https://www.forbes.com/advisor/investing/fed-funds-rate-history/
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/12/wall-street-sees-potential-upsides-of-uaw-autostrikes.html#:~:text=A%20UAW%20strike%20could%20%E2%80%9Cdrive,if%20tentative%20deals%20are%20reached.
https://www.automotivedive.com/news/uaw-strike-domino-effect-suppliers-gm-general-motors-ford-stellantislear/691542/
https://www.usdebtclock.org/index.html
https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/01/politics/congress-spending-bill-government-open/index.html
https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/americas-finance-guide/national-deficit/
https://www.officialdata.org/us/stocks/s-p-500/1926#inflation

This material has been prepared for information and educational purposes and should not be construed as a solicitation for the purchase or sell of any investment. The content is developed from sources believed to be reliable. This information is not intended to be investment, legal or tax advice. Investing involves risk, including the loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in a period of declining values. Investment advisory services offered by duly registered individuals on behalf of CreativeOne Wealth, LLC a Registered Investment Adviser. CreativeOne Wealth, LLC and Moore Financial Solutions are unaffiliated entities.

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Moore Financial Solutions 2nd Quarter 2026

By Tyler Moore • July 14, 2026

The investment tree you planted previously may have provided more fruit in the second quarter of 2026 with the S&P 500 rising by about 15% (1). Additionally, some small cap funds such as ticker IJR (iShares Core S&P Small-Cap ETF) rose by about 19.3%, as investors felt relieved that interest rates were decreasing (2). This small cap surge was welcomed by portfolio managers such as Moore Financial Solutions, who have closely monitored the historical outperformance of small cap companies, which lagged last year. In Q2 all eyes focused on the U.S./Iran War, as investors pushed WTI crude oil prices to $112.95 on April 6th, 2026, an increase of 104% in 112 days from the December 15th, 2025, low. Investors viewed rising oil prices as a signal of higher inflation and worried that newly appointed Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh might delay the interest rate cuts that many investors expected. Take five minutes every quarter, twenty minutes total for all of 2026, to better understand from my point of view why I believe the stock market is in an uptrend, the movement of other asset classes, and our thoughts of if this can continue. If a traveler arrived near Kansas City for a World Cup match, knew nothing about Moore F.S. and was curiously asking about firm values, or A.I. was tasked with doing analysis of Moore F.S. quarterly reviews, you would hear a common theme. Repetitively, we attempt to instill three thoughts regarding today's modern investor. First, stocks will move both up and down, so do not get used to 25% years, but be ready to use them to your advantage. Secondly, whether you are an individual client or Moore Financial Solutions managing $27.8 million, we are still a small fish in an enormous ocean of investors. That reality is one reason we avoid trying to time the market or become overly concerned with short-term movements. The intention is not to make either party feel small, rather create a metaphor that you are subject to the tide going up or down and remind you that it will do both. Lastly, this is not Mayberry where Wally's Filling Station, Floyd's Barbershop, and Mayberry Diner represent most of your commerce. In fact, you are likely tied deeply into a global economy with dozens of moving parts from tariff rules to the Strait of Hormuz. We will dive deeper into that strait and use West Texas Intermediate prices for our conversation. Last quarter we honed in on the logistics of the Strait of Hormuz stating, “That roughly 21-mile-wide body of water, the Strait of Hormuz, realistically can create a recession.” In other words, the economy is increasingly global, and a small shipping route over 7,500 miles from Kansas City impacts your prices for gas and thousands of other items. Moore F.S. took the opinion that the oil price spike would be short lived and spoke freely to clients about this view. We did not take this viewpoint on a hunch, rather we studied the backwardation of WTI crude oil prices. This unique backwardation of oil prices looked similar to the inverted yield curve our firm witnessed for a couple of years from 2022-2024 (you can learn more about yield curve inversion in the previous Moore F.S. reviews written Q3 2024 and Q3 2025). In our backwardation forecasting we did not feel obligated to predict the price of oil, rather we used crude oil futures markets to determine where traders were imagining oil prices. This reassuring feeling of a decrease in oil prices combined extremely well with our buy and hold philosophy. In other words, we did not panic sell stocks in fear that oil might hit $200/barrel, as multiple firms said was possible. Since 1985, the crude oil market has been in contango (a positively sloping price curve) around 42% of the time. It has been in backwardation 58% of the time as measured by the price difference between the front-month contract and contracts for six months in the future (4). Higher fuel prices fueled inflation concerns. As a result of an increasing oil price economy, traders drove interest rates higher as well. An economy that imagined a couple rate decreases for the year now was eyeing a spike in inflation and had to reposition interest rates. As a result, Wall Street pushed the 10-Year U.S. Treasury rate from 4.318% to 4.469% in Q2. Though we aim to avoid interest rate prognostications, we firmly believe the United States will rejoin a decreasing interest rate environment for the remainder of the year, at least from the 4.469% levels, barring geopolitical shocks to the system.

Moore Financial Solutions 1st Quarter 2026

By Tyler Moore • April 9, 2026

The past 35 days have humbled investors as we witnessed the S&P 500 lose approximately 6% from February 25th into the quarter's close. The S&P 500 finished the entire quarter 4.6% lower, which represents the first losing quarter since Q1 of last year, in which the S&P 500 lost about 4.59%. Much like an emotional play or movie, the market offered three scenes of varying benefit to investor portfolios. Scene one was brief but fruitful. In these first 12 days of the year the S&P 500 rose about 1.92%. Scene two left investors leaning on the emotional lessons learned from 2025's market downturn, with the S&P 500 moving about 9% lower from day 13 of the year until March 30th. Scene three flashed quickly and only represented one day. On this last day of the quarter, the S&P 500 meaningfully rose about 2.9% in an effort to heal a portion of the quarter's losses. I believe, based upon my nearly 14 years of money management, that stock market history doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme. Though I'm not predicting a positive year for the S&P 500 (and admittedly not in the business of making such predictions) this year's chart for the broad stock market looks somewhat like last year's. Those first quarter '25 stumbles were later looked at as a massive buying opportunity, symbolizing the power of "buy and hold" as it relates to stocks. Only time will tell if these stock market worries are warranted and if there will be continued damage to stock portfolios because of the conflict in Iran. Additionally, the market is eyeing oil price increases, interest rate increases, various geopolitical risks, and the additional unforeseen risks on the horizon. Or are stock market investors currently pricing in many areas of worry, all of which will subside in the coming weeks? Dive into the quarter's review in which I attempt to illustrate investing through my eyes, discuss quarterly geopolitical events, and speak to market moving factors of Q1 and investor emotions as a result. Use this tool to educate yourself and reduce worry or fear as it relates to investing.